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NBA · Sun, Nov 22

Mavericks @ Jazz

Delta Center · at Jazz · Conference game
#17DALMavericks
@
#26UTAHJazz
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DALThis seasonUTAH
4-2Record1-5
4-2ATS1-5
2-4O/U2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAL 120–114 · win probability DAL 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 233.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 224-242 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAL has more of the edges

DAL 5, UTAH 2 · 2026-27 so far
DALBig
Three-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 42.1% and 41.7% of their shots
DALBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9
DALBig
DAL offense vs UTAH defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
DALBig
Recent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2
UTAHSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, UTAH 77.1%
UTAHSmall
Home court
UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, DAL 2-1 away
DALSmall
UTAH offense vs DAL defense
Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, UTAH 13.3%
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: DAL 27.2, UTAH 33.8
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDAL -5.7
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model233.8
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 119.8 · UTAH 114.1
Win probability
DAL 66%
1st half
Spread
DAL -3.3
Total
116.9
Projected score
DAL 60.1 · UTAH 56.8
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Mavericks has the better starters

Position by position: Mavericks 2, Jazz 1, even 2
MavericksBetterJazz
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
Even
G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
DALBig
G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
DALSmall
G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
UTAHSmall
F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
Even
C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36
MavericksBetterJazz
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
DALBig
UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
Even
UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
DALBig
Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
Even
Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
Even
Bench+2.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Jazz
Guards
K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min
Forwards
L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min
Centers
J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min
Out
J. JacksonOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
DALUTAH
Scoring
114.3Points per game108.7
1.12Points per possession1.05
102.8Pace (possessions)104.0
Shooting
56.9Effective FG%51.0
35.13-point %32.6
42.13-point attempt rate41.7
21.4Free throw rate31.6
Possessions
16.8Turnover rate17.0
27.8Offensive rebound rate25.7
27.0Assists per game26.2
Defense
111.8Points allowed118.8
1.08Points allowed per possession1.14
51.3Opponent effective FG%53.9
29.7Opponent 3-point %37.6
14.5Turnovers forced13.3
69.4Defensive rebound rate77.1
8.8Steals per game6.2
6.8Blocks per game6.5
DALUTAH
Scoring
114.3 #14Points per game108.7 #24
1.12 #11Points per possession1.05 #25
102.8 #18Pace (possessions)104.0 #12
Shooting
56.9 #2Effective FG%51.0 #24
35.1 #143-point %32.6 #23
42.1 #183-point attempt rate41.7 #21
21.4 #29Free throw rate31.6 #10
Possessions
16.8 #23Turnover rate17.0 #25
27.8 #13Offensive rebound rate25.7 #22
27.0 #12Assists per game26.2 #19
Defense
111.8 #14Points allowed118.8 #25
1.08 #13Points allowed per possession1.14 #25
51.3 #9Opponent effective FG%53.9 #18
29.7 #2Opponent 3-point %37.6 #25
14.5 #24Turnovers forced13.3 #28
69.4 #25Defensive rebound rate77.1 #4
8.8 #16Steals per game6.2 #29
6.8 #2Blocks per game6.5 #5
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row, and the better team's bar is solid; hover or tap a row for both teams' numbers and ranks. In the table, a green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
  • Lvs Spurs111–117
  • Lvs Grizzlies105–110
  • Lvs Lakers123–132
  • Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.