Western Carolina Catamounts at North Carolina Tar Heels: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 7:00 PM ETDean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina

LineUNC -22.5no move

Total156.5up 2 from 154.5

Season records: W Carolina and North Carolina
WCU	This season	UNC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNC 89–66 · win probability UNC 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

UNC -22.5

no move since the open

Total

156.5

model 154.8 · Under by 1.5

Model edge

Even

matches the market

Public on the spread

96% WCU

89% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNC has more of the edges

WCU 1, UNC 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNCBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WCU 50.5 and allows 54.9; UNC 54.3 and allows 48.4

UNCBig

UNC offense vs WCU defense

Offense 40th of 366 against a defense 256th, on the model’s ratings

UNCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WCU 31.3, UNC 37.1. Allowed: WCU 37.8, UNC 23.8

UNCBig

WCU offense vs UNC defense

Offense 171st of 366 against a defense 52nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

WCU has played the 177th-hardest schedule, UNC the 61st. A record against a soft schedule means less

WCUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WCU 35.4%, UNC 31.2%. Defensive: WCU 73.7%, UNC 72.2%

UNCSmall

Three-pointers

WCU hits 33.5% and allows 36.7%; UNC hits 34.2% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 40.9% and 42.2% of their shots

UNCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WCU 16.7%, UNC 13.9%. Forced: WCU 14.6%, UNC 13.6%

UNCSmall

Home court

UNC at home. This season: UNC 0-0 at home, WCU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: WCU plays 69.3 a game (162nd fastest), UNC 69.0 (180th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WCU 16%, UNC 20%. Transfers in: WCU 6, UNC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 20 or more	1165	99%	50%	52%
Non-conference games at this spread	1090	99%	50%	52%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5	1555	74%	51%	49%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUNC -22.5

no move

NowUNC -22.5

No change since the open

Total

Open154.5

▲ 2

Now156.5

Up 2 since the open

Moneyline

WCU +2200 · UNC -10000

Line movement

Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened UNC -22.5 · unchangedmodel UNC -22.5 matches the line

model UNC -22.5 = line ✓

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

WCU +22.5Spread

UNC -22.5

Bets

96%

Money

89%11%

WCUWinner

UNC

Bets

96%

Money

32%68%

Money is 28 pts ahead of bets on WCU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	WCU	UNC	Over	Under	WCU	UNC
BetMGMMGM	-22.5-110	+22.5-110	155.5-115	155.5-105	+1800	-10000
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-22-105	+22-115	156-110	156-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-22.5-110	+22.5-113	156.5-110	156.5-113	—	—
BetUSBetUS	-22-105	+22-115	156-110	156-110	—	—
BovadaBovada	-22.5-110	+22.5-110	156-110	156-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	-22.5-112	+22.5-108	156.5-105	156.5-115	+2200	-8000
FanDuelFD	-22.5-106	+22.5-114	157.5-110	157.5-110	+2400	-10000
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-22-101	+22-111	156-108	156-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 5:30 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	UNC -22.5	UNC -22.7	UNC +0.2
Total	156.5	154.8	Under 1.7
Projected score	—	WCU 66.1 · UNC 88.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNC -13.4	—
1H total	72.4	—
1H projected score	WCU 29.5 · UNC 42.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WCU WWWWW	14-15	48%	5-11	10-11
UNC LWWWL	19-14	58%	12-6	12-10

Venue/role: WCU away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
WCU UUOUU	15-14	52%	13-16
UNC OUUOO	16-17	48%	24-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WCU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
UNC	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

W Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ UNCA	W80–73WO
Nov 14	vs LIP	L62–83LU
Nov 17	@ BTLR	No recent meeting

North Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	vs WOF	No recent meeting
Nov 10	vs WYO	No recent meeting
Nov 13	vs UGA	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

W Carolina

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg +2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-14

52% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

L L W W L L L L L L W L L W L L W W L L L W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1548%

L L L W L L L L W L W L L W L L W W L L L W W W W W W W W

8 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1452%

O U U O U O U O O U U O O U O O U O O O U U O O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CIN	L 63-94	+22.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 8	@DUKE	L 54-95	+36.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 16	vsSTET	W 76-65	-12.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 141
Nov 19	vsUNCA	W 80-73	+1.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 153
Nov 22	@LIP	L 62-83	+5.5	L −15.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 29	@HPU	L 73-93	+16.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 166
Dec 6	@UPST	L 67-78	+2.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 145
Dec 11	@VT	L 74-96	+20.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 18	@UGA	L 82-112	+32.5	W +2.5	167.5	O 194
Dec 31	vsWOF	L 74-79	+2.5	L −2.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	@FUR	W 80-77	+8.5	W +11.5	157.5	U 157
Jan 7	@SAM	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 159
Jan 10	@CIT	L 77-79	-6.5	L −8.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 14	vsETSU	W 72-68	+6.5	W +10.5	147.5	U 140
Jan 17	vsUTC	L 82-90	-1.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 172
Jan 21	@MER	L 76-88	+8.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 164
Jan 24	vsVMI	W 88-58	-8.5	W +21.5	152.5	U 146
Jan 29	@ETSU	W 90-88	+9.5	W +11.5	145.5	O 178
Feb 1	vsSAM	L 74-88	+1.5	L −12.5	154.5	O 162
Feb 4	@UNCG	L 78-81	-1.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 159
Feb 7	@WOF	L 66-77	+3.5	L −7.5	154.5	U 143
Feb 11	vsCIT	W 87-49	-9.5	W +28.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 14	@UTC	W 81-76	+1.5	W +6.5	151.5	O 157
Feb 18	vsUNCG	W 91-77	-5.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 168
Feb 21	@VMI	W 81-62	-8.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 143
Feb 25	vsMER	W 78-74	+1.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 152
Feb 28	vsFUR	W 86-67	+1.5	W +20.5	147.5	O 153
Mar 7	vsMER	W 77-73	+1.5	W +5.5	154.5	U 150
Mar 8	vsETSU	L 67-69	+2.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CIN

L 63-94

−8.5

DUKE

L 54-95

−4.5

STET

W 76-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-73

+8.5

LIP

L 62-83

−15.5

HPU

L 73-93

−3.5

UPST

L 67-78

−8.5

L 74-96

−1.5

UGA

L 82-112

+2.5

WOF

L 74-79

−2.5

FUR

W 80-77

+11.5

SAM

L 77-82

−0.5

CIT

L 77-79

−8.5

ETSU

W 72-68

+10.5

UTC

L 82-90

−9.5

MER

L 76-88

−3.5

VMI

W 88-58

+21.5

ETSU

W 90-88

+11.5

SAM

L 74-88

−12.5

UNCG

L 78-81

−4.5

WOF

L 66-77

−7.5

CIT

W 87-49

+28.5

UTC

W 81-76

+6.5

UNCG

W 91-77

+8.5

VMI

W 81-62

+10.5

MER

W 78-74

+5.5

FUR

W 86-67

+20.5

MER

W 77-73

+5.5

ETSU

L 67-69

+0.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CIN

L 63-94

+13.5

DUKE

L 54-95

−3.5

STET

W 76-65

−14.5

UNCA

W 80-73

+0.5

LIP

L 62-83

−6.5

HPU

L 73-93

+6.5

UPST

L 67-78

−4.5

L 74-96

+17.5

UGA

L 82-112

+26.5

WOF

L 74-79

−1.5

FUR

W 80-77

−0.5

SAM

L 77-82

+5.5

CIT

L 77-79

+7.5

ETSU

W 72-68

−7.5

UTC

L 82-90

+21.5

MER

L 76-88

+5.5

VMI

W 88-58

−6.5

ETSU

W 90-88

+32.5

SAM

L 74-88

+7.5

UNCG

L 78-81

+3.5

WOF

L 66-77

−11.5

CIT

W 87-49

−9.5

UTC

W 81-76

+5.5

UNCG

W 91-77

+12.5

VMI

W 81-62

−11.5

MER

W 78-74

−4.5

FUR

W 86-67

+5.5

MER

W 77-73

−4.5

ETSU

L 67-69

−9.5

over 15under 14avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Carolina

33 games played

Straight up

24-9

73% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-17

48% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-973%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W W L W L L W W W W W L W L W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1458%

W W L W L W L W W L W L W W L L L L W W W L W L W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1748%

U O O U U O U U U U U U O U O O O O O O O O U U O U U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCARK	W 94-54	-31.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 7	vsKU	W 87-74	-2.5	W +10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsRAD	W 89-74	-20.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 163
Nov 14	vsNCCU	W 97-53	-34.5	W +9.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 18	vsNAVY	W 73-61	-26.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 134
Nov 25	vsSBU	W 85-70	-10.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 27	vsMSU	L 58-74	+1.5	L −14.5	152.5	U 132
Dec 2	@UK	W 67-64	+7.5	W +10.5	163.5	U 131
Dec 7	vsGTWN	W 81-61	-10.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsUPST	W 80-62	-29.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 142
Dec 16	vsETSU	W 77-58	-17.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 20	vsOSU	W 71-70	-2.5	L −1.5	157.5	U 141
Dec 22	vsECU	W 99-51	-25.5	W +22.5	144.5	O 150
Dec 30	vsFSU	W 79-66	-12.5	W +0.5	166.5	U 145
Jan 3	@SMU	L 83-97	+1.5	L −12.5	155.5	O 180
Jan 10	vsWAKE	W 87-84	-10.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 171
Jan 14	@STAN	L 90-95	-4.5	L −9.5	147.5	O 185
Jan 17	@CAL	L 78-84	-7.5	L −13.5	151.5	O 162
Jan 21	vsND	W 91-69	-13.5	W +8.5	149.5	O 160
Jan 24	@UVA	W 85-80	+6.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 165
Jan 31	@GT	W 91-75	-9.5	W +6.5	160.5	O 166
Feb 2	vsSYR	W 87-77	-11.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsDUKE	W 71-68	+6.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 139
Feb 10	@MIA	L 66-75	+1.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 141
Feb 14	vsPITT	W 79-65	-11.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 17	@NCSU	L 58-82	+8.5	L −15.5	156.5	U 140
Feb 21	@SYR	W 77-64	+2.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 141
Feb 23	vsLOU	W 77-74	+3.5	W +6.5	162.5	U 151
Feb 28	vsVT	W 89-82	-7.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 171
Mar 3	vsCLEM	W 67-63	-2.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 130
Mar 7	@DUKE	L 61-76	+18.5	W +3.5	147.5	U 137
Mar 12	vsCLEM	L 79-80	+2.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 159
Mar 19	vsVCU	L 78-82	-2.5	L −6.5	150.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CARK

W 94-54

+8.5

W 87-74

+10.5

RAD

W 89-74

−5.5

NCCU

W 97-53

+9.5

NAVY

W 73-61

−14.5

SBU

W 85-70

+4.5

MSU

L 58-74

−14.5

W 67-64

+10.5

GTWN

W 81-61

+9.5

UPST

W 80-62

−11.5

ETSU

W 77-58

+1.5

OSU

W 71-70

−1.5

ECU

W 99-51

+22.5

FSU

W 79-66

+0.5

SMU

L 83-97

−12.5

WAKE

W 87-84

−7.5

STAN

L 90-95

−9.5

CAL

L 78-84

−13.5

W 91-69

+8.5

UVA

W 85-80

+11.5

W 91-75

+6.5

SYR

W 87-77

−1.5

DUKE

W 71-68

+9.5

MIA

L 66-75

−7.5

PITT

W 79-65

+2.5

NCSU

L 58-82

−15.5

SYR

W 77-64

+15.5

LOU

W 77-74

+6.5

W 89-82

−0.5

CLEM

W 67-63

+1.5

DUKE

L 61-76

+3.5

CLEM

L 79-80

+1.5

VCU

L 78-82

−6.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CARK

W 94-54

−9.5

W 87-74

+1.5

RAD

W 89-74

+0.5

NCCU

W 97-53

−9.5

NAVY

W 73-61

−26.5

SBU

W 85-70

+2.5

MSU

L 58-74

−20.5

W 67-64

−32.5

GTWN

W 81-61

−7.5

UPST

W 80-62

−9.5

ETSU

W 77-58

−15.5

OSU

W 71-70

−16.5

ECU

W 99-51

+5.5

FSU

W 79-66

−21.5

SMU

L 83-97

+24.5

WAKE

W 87-84

+16.5

STAN

L 90-95

+37.5

CAL

L 78-84

+10.5

W 91-69

+10.5

UVA

W 85-80

+12.5

W 91-75

+5.5

SYR

W 87-77

+5.5

DUKE

W 71-68

−13.5

MIA

L 66-75

−15.5

PITT

W 79-65

+1.5

NCSU

L 58-82

−16.5

SYR

W 77-64

−13.5

LOU

W 77-74

−11.5

W 89-82

+21.5

CLEM

W 67-63

−11.5

DUKE

L 61-76

−10.5

CLEM

L 79-80

+18.5

VCU

L 78-82

+9.5

over 16under 17avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: W Carolina 0, North Carolina 3, even 2

W CarolinaBetterNorth Carolina

G M. Brown TR11.9 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 48

UNCSmall

G N. Avdalas TR12.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.6 ast Score 67

G I. Manning TR9.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 64

UNCSmall

G T. Brown TR19.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98

G T. Bryson TR8.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 70

Even

G A. Brizzi TR14.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

G J. Prunty TR3.9 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 20

UNCBig

F J. Stevenson8.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65

F S. Dada6.2 pts · 7.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77

Even

C C. Fens TR14.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 85

W CarolinaBetterNorth Carolina

WCU offense171st of 366 · -5.2

UNCSmall

UNC defense52nd of 366 · +1.9

WCU defense256th of 366 · -6.7

UNCBig

UNC offense40th of 366 · +5.0

Backcourt-1.7 · 4 players

UNCBig

Backcourt+6.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player

UNCSmall

Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players

Bench-1.5 · 4 players

UNCSmall

Bench+0.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWCU betterUNC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

W Carolina

Guards

M. Brown31 min · TRI. Manning20 min · TRT. Bryson18 min · TRJ. Prunty16 min · TRJ. Roberts8 min · TRD. Hollifield2 min

Forwards

S. Dada20 minT. Smith10 minD. Raymond6 min · TRF. SodipoNew

North Carolina

Guards

N. Avdalas32 min · TRT. Brown32 min · TRA. Brizzi30 min · TRM. Able22 min · TRJ. Young7 minI. Denis3 min

Forwards

J. Stevenson26 minJ. Holbrook2 minA. SamodurovNewM. AdamsNew

Centers

C. Fens26 min · TRC. BennermanNewS. KeitaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WCU76.3 #134

UNC79.7 #73

Points per possession

WCU1.10 #140

UNC1.16 #50

Pace (possessions)

WCU69.3 #162

UNC69.0 #180

Shooting

Effective FG%

WCU50.5 #218

UNC54.3 #57

3-point %

WCU33.5 #198

UNC34.2 #159

3-point attempt rate

WCU40.9 #147

UNC42.2 #132

Free throw rate

WCU31.3 #274

UNC37.1 #127

Possessions

Turnover rate

WCU16.7 #179

UNC13.9 #20

Offensive rebound rate

WCU35.4 #36

UNC31.2 #159

Assists per game

WCU12.0 #286

UNC16.0 #47

Defense

Points allowed

WCU79.0 #299

UNC71.6 #97

Points allowed per possession

WCU1.14 #307

UNC1.04 #65

Opponent effective FG%

WCU54.9 #327

UNC48.4 #44

Opponent 3-point %

WCU36.7 #337

UNC34.7 #234

Turnovers forced

WCU14.6 #318

UNC13.6 #344

Defensive rebound rate

WCU73.7 #22

UNC72.2 #59

Steals per game

WCU5.8 #266

UNC5.4 #308

Blocks per game

WCU2.4 #315

UNC3.4 #167

WCU		UNC
Scoring
76.3 #134	Points per game	79.7 #73
1.10 #140	Points per possession	1.16 #50
69.3 #162	Pace (possessions)	69.0 #180
Shooting
50.5 #218	Effective FG%	54.3 #57
33.5 #198	3-point %	34.2 #159
40.9 #147	3-point attempt rate	42.2 #132
31.3 #274	Free throw rate	37.1 #127
Possessions
16.7 #179	Turnover rate	13.9 #20
35.4 #36	Offensive rebound rate	31.2 #159
12.0 #286	Assists per game	16.0 #47
Defense
79.0 #299	Points allowed	71.6 #97
1.14 #307	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #65
54.9 #327	Opponent effective FG%	48.4 #44
36.7 #337	Opponent 3-point %	34.7 #234
14.6 #318	Turnovers forced	13.6 #344
73.7 #22	Defensive rebound rate	72.2 #59
5.8 #266	Steals per game	5.4 #308
2.4 #315	Blocks per game	3.4 #167

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

W Carolina

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs ETSU67–69
Wvs Mercer77–73
Wvs Furman86–67
Wvs Mercer78–74
W@ VMI81–62

A week or more of rest.

North Carolina

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs VCU78–82
Lvs Clemson79–80
L@ Duke61–76
Wvs Clemson67–63
Wvs Virginia Tech89–82

A week or more of rest.