Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina
Closing line
UNC -17.5✓ UNC covered by 1.5
UNC -17.5✓ UNC covered by 1.5Closing total150.5Under by 15.5
 ETSU | This season | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | Record | 9-1 |
| 6-3 | ATS | 6-4 |
| 5-4 | O/U | 3-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ETSU 67–82 UNC · ✓ UNC (91%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETSU | 30 | 28 | 58 |
| UNC | 38 | 39 | 77 |
1st half: ETSU 30, UNC 38 (UNC by 8). The model had UNC by 9.0 and a total of 69.5 (actual 68).
Team stats
| ETSU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-52 38% | Field goals | 27-50 54% |
| 7-23 30% | 3-pointers | 8-25 32% |
| 11-16 69% | Free throws | 15-23 65% |
| 23 6 off | Rebounds | 35 7 off |
| 11 | Assists | 18 |
| 4 | Steals | 3 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| ETSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Taylor II G | 40 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 4-13 | 1-5 |
| Cam Morris III F | 30 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2-11 | 0-3 |
| Jordan McCullum F | 30 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Blake Barkley F | 25 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-2 |
| Allen Strothers G | 15 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylen Smith G | 25 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Maki Johnson G | 23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Isaiah Sutherland F | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Milton Matthews III G | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Brayden Crump, Gabe Sisk, Maddox Huff, Frederico Whitaker Jr., Henry Sisemore, Joseph Carter
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyan Evans G | 30 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Caleb Wilson F | 28 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 6-12 | 1-2 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 28 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 10-11 | 2-3 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 24 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3-5 | 0-2 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jonathan Powell G | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-6 |
| Derek Dixon G | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Jaydon Young G | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| James Brown C | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Denis G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Zayden High F | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Davis G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| John Holbrook F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ivan Matlekovic C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Evan Smith G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Seth Trimble
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -14.5
3 → UNC
CloseUNC -17.5
3 pts toward UNC
Total
Open149.5
▲ 1
Close150.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
ETSU +1100 · UNC -2100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -14.5 · closed UNC -17.5 · moved 3 toward UNCmodel UNC -15
model UNC -15
Opened 149.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 1 upmodel 148.5
model 148.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNC -17.5 | UNC -15.1 | ETSU +2.4 | L UNC covered |
| Total | 150.5 | 148.4 | Under 2.1 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | ETSU 66.6 · UNC 81.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UNC -9.0 | UNC -8.0 |
| 1H total | 69.5 | 68 |
| 1H projected score | ETSU 30.3 · UNC 39.2 | ETSU 30 · UNC 38 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETSUlast 9 | 6-3 67% | 6-3 67% | 5-4 56% |
| UNC | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
ETSU
9 games played
Straight up
6-3
67% wins
Against the spread
6-3
67% covers · avg +5.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-4
56% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ PRES | L 64-68 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 141.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 12 | vs NKU | W 75-63 | -6.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 15 | @ UNA | W 78-74 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 21 | vs MORE | W 77-62 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 23 | vs ULM | W 97-55 | -19.5 | W +22.5 | 146.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 29 | vs CARK | W 80-57 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 2 | @ DAY | L 71-88 | +11.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 5 | vs USA | W 91-65 | -7.5 | W +18.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 12 | @ APSU | L 75-76 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | O 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@PRES
PRESL 64-68
−10.5
12
vsNKU
NKUW 75-63
+5.5
15
@UNA
UNAW 78-74
+5.5
21
vsMORE
MOREW 77-62
+4.5
23
vsULM
ULMW 97-55
+22.5
29
vsCARK
CARKW 80-57
+10.5
2
@DAY
DAYL 71-88
−5.5
5
vsUSA
USAW 91-65
+18.5
12
@APSU
APSUL 75-76
−4.5
covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@PRES
PRESL 64-68
−9.5
12
vsNKU
NKUW 75-63
−4.5
15
@UNA
UNAW 78-74
+6.5
21
vsMORE
MOREW 77-62
−5.5
23
vsULM
ULMW 97-55
+5.5
29
vsCARK
CARKW 80-57
−7.5
2
@DAY
DAYL 71-88
+18.5
5
vsUSA
USAW 91-65
+12.5
12
@APSU
APSUL 75-76
+7.5
over 5under 4avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
North Carolina
10 games played
Straight up
9-1
90% wins
Against the spread
6-4
60% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-7
30% overs · avg −11.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsCARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vs SBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vs MSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
covered 6didn’t cover 4avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
over 3under 7avg −11.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
ETSU
6-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Austin Peay75–76
- Wvs South Alabama91–65
- L@ Dayton71–88
- Wvs C Arkansas80–57
- Wvs UL Monroe97–55
4 days since their last game.
North Carolina
9-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs SC Upstate80–62
- Wvs Georgetown81–61
- W@ Kentucky67–64
- Lvs Michigan St58–74
- Wvs St Bonaventure85–70
3 days since their last game.