East Tennessee State Buccaneers at Dayton Flyers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETUD Arena · at Dayton

#173ETSUETSU71final

Final

#91DAYDayton88▲ winner

Closing lineDAY -11.5✓ DAY covered by 5.5

Closing total140.5Over by 18.5

Season records: ETSU and Dayton
ETSU	This season	DAY
5-1	Record	6-2
5-1	ATS	4-4
2-4	O/U	3-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ETSU 68–76 DAY · ✓ DAY (77%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ETSU	38	33	71
DAY	46	42	88

1st half: ETSU 38, DAY 46 (DAY by 8). The model had DAY by 4.9 and a total of 67.6 (actual 84).

Team stats

ETSU		DAY
26-56 46%	Field goals	27-50 54%
7-21 33%	3-pointers	6-22 27%
12-15 80%	Free throws	28-35 80%
27 11 off	Rebounds	28 8 off
13	Assists	19
11	Steals	14
3	Blocks	6
22	Turnovers	15
26	Fouls	14
30	Points in paint	40
13	Fast-break points	17

Players

ETSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brian Taylor II G	40	16	4	5	7-13	2-5
Blake Barkley F	34	21	6	1	8-14	2-3
Cam Morris III F	24	19	5	1	6-9	2-2
Allen Strothers G	20	0	0	3	0-0	0-0
Jordan McCullum F	11	2	2	1	0-2	0-1
Bench
Jaylen Smith G	25	7	1	2	3-10	1-6
Maki Johnson G	23	2	4	0	1-5	0-3
Brayden Crump F	18	4	2	0	1-2	0-0
Milton Matthews III G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Gabe Sisk G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Joseph Carter, Henry Sisemore, Isaiah Sutherland, Frederico Whitaker Jr., Maddox Huff

DAY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Keonte Jones G	36	15	5	5	7-10	0-2
De'Shayne Montgomery G	34	27	7	3	8-14	3-7
Javon Bennett G	32	9	0	2	4-8	1-4
Amal L'Etang F	27	10	5	2	3-5	0-1
Jordan Derkack G	27	14	5	5	2-2	0-0
Bench
Jacob Conner F	16	4	1	0	1-3	1-3
Bryce Heard G	13	4	1	1	1-5	1-4
Jaiun Simon F	12	4	1	1	1-2	0-1
Malcolm Thomas F	3	1	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Adam Njie, Damon Friery, Makai Grant, Will Maxwell, Evan Dickey, Jaron McKie

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DAY -11.5	DAY -8.4	ETSU +3.1	L DAY covered
Total	140.5	144.4	Over 3.9	W Over
Projected score	—	ETSU 68 · DAY 76.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DAY -4.9	DAY -8.0
1H total	67.6	84
1H projected score	ETSU 31.4 · DAY 36.3	ETSU 38 · DAY 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ETSU WWWWW	5-1	83%	1-1	1-0
DAY LWLWW	4-4	50%	1-3	2-3

Venue/role: ETSU away, as underdog; DAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ETSU UOUOU	2-4	33%	5-1
DAY OUUOO	3-5	38%	6-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ETSUlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
DAYlast 8	6-2 75%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

ETSU

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@PRES	L 64-68	-6.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 12	vsNKU	W 75-63	-6.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@UNA	W 78-74	+1.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 21	vsMORE	W 77-62	-10.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 139
Nov 23	vsULM	W 97-55	-19.5	W +22.5	146.5	O 152
Nov 29	vsCARK	W 80-57	-12.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRES

L 64-68

−10.5

NKU

W 75-63

+5.5

UNA

W 78-74

+5.5

W 77-62

+4.5

ULM

W 97-55

+22.5

CARK

W 80-57

+10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRES

L 64-68

−9.5

NKU

W 75-63

−4.5

UNA

W 78-74

+6.5

W 77-62

−5.5

ULM

W 97-55

+5.5

CARK

W 80-57

−7.5

over 2under 4avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Dayton

8 games played

Straight up

6-2

75% wins

Against the spread

4-4

50% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-5

38% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-275%

W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-450%

W L L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-538%

U U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCAN	W 88-48	-25.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	vsUMBC	W 77-71	-25.5	L −19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@CIN	L 62-74	+5.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 15	vsBCU	W 91-82	-21.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 173
Nov 19	@MARQ	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsNCCU	W 74-55	-29.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 129
Nov 27	vsGTWN	W 84-79	-1.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163
Nov 28	vsBYU	L 79-83	+9.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

+14.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−19.5

CIN

L 62-74

−6.5

BCU

W 91-82

−12.5

MARQ

W 77-71

+12.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−10.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+3.5

BYU

L 79-83

+5.5

covered 4didn’t cover 4avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

−6.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−6.5

CIN

L 62-74

−11.5

BCU

W 91-82

+24.5

MARQ

W 77-71

−3.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−17.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+17.5

BYU

L 79-83

+11.5

over 3under 5avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at Dayton Flyers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

ETSU

Dayton

ETSU

Dayton