BYU Cougars vs Dayton Flyers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 9:30 PM ETState Farm Field House · Neutral site

#24BYUBYU AP #983▲ winner

Final

#91DAYDayton79final

Closing lineBYU -9.5✓ DAY covered by 5.5

Closing total150.5Over by 11.5

Season records: BYU and Dayton
BYU	This season	DAY
5-1	Record	6-1
4-2	ATS	3-4
2-4	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BYU 84–69 DAY · ✓ BYU (90%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BYU	30	53	83
DAY	36	43	79

1st half: BYU 30, DAY 36 (DAY by 6). The model had BYU by 8.9 and a total of 71.5 (actual 66).

Team stats

BYU		DAY
29-56 52%	Field goals	29-62 47%
10-22 45%	3-pointers	15-33 45%
15-18 83%	Free throws	6-14 43%
35 5 off	Rebounds	32 8 off
11	Assists	14
11	Steals	7
2	Blocks	5
15	Turnovers	14
13	Fouls	16
30	Points in paint	24
15	Fast-break points	15

Players

BYU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Richie Saunders G	38	29	8	2	9-15	6-10
Robert Wright III G	35	23	3	6	9-16	2-4
AJ Dybantsa F	34	18	4	3	7-12	1-1
Kennard Davis Jr. G	32	5	4	0	2-7	1-4
Keba Keita F	23	8	6	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Khadim Mboup F	17	0	6	0	0-0	0-0
Tyler Mrus F	11	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Dominique Diomande F	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Aleksej Kostic G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Xavion Staton, Nate Pickens, Mihailo Boskovic, Brody Kozlowski, Jared McGregor, Dawson Baker

DAY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Javon Bennett G	34	22	2	3	7-16	6-11
Keonte Jones G	32	8	4	4	4-8	0-1
Amal L'Etang F	31	13	6	2	5-13	2-7
De'Shayne Montgomery G	29	11	8	4	4-11	2-5
Jordan Derkack G	22	7	4	0	2-3	1-2
Bench
Bryce Heard G	23	16	3	1	6-7	4-5
Jacob Conner F	17	2	2	0	1-4	0-2
Malcolm Thomas F	9	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jaiun Simon F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Makai Grant, Will Maxwell, Evan Dickey, Damon Friery, Adam Njie, Jaron McKie

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BYU -9.5	BYU -14.5	BYU +5.0	L DAY covered
Total	150.5	152.7	Over 2.2	W Over
Projected score	—	BYU 83.6 · DAY 69.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BYU -8.9	DAY -6.0
1H total	71.5	66
1H projected score	BYU 40.2 · DAY 31.3	BYU 30 · DAY 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
BYU WLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2
DAY LLWLW	3-4	43%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: BYU neutral site, as favorite; DAY neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU UUOOU	2-4	33%	5-1
DAY UOUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYUlast 6	5-1 83%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
DAYlast 7	6-1 86%	3-4 43%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BYU 1–0 DAYBYU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · BYU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 25, 2022-23	BYU 79 vs DAY 75	DAY -3.5	BYU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

BYU

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsVILL	W 71-66	-9.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsHC	W 98-53	-38.5	W +6.5	165.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsDEL	W 85-68	-35.5	L −18.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 15	vsCONN	L 84-86	+6.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 170
Nov 21	vsWIS	W 98-70	-4.5	W +23.5	165.5	O 168
Nov 27	vsMIA	W 72-62	-7.5	W +2.5	165.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VILL

W 71-66

−4.5

W 98-53

+6.5

DEL

W 85-68

−18.5

CONN

L 84-86

+4.5

WIS

W 98-70

+23.5

MIA

W 72-62

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VILL

W 71-66

−16.5

W 98-53

−14.5

DEL

W 85-68

−11.5

CONN

L 84-86

+13.5

WIS

W 98-70

+2.5

MIA

W 72-62

−31.5

over 2under 4avg −9.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Dayton

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-529%

U U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCAN	W 88-48	-25.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	vsUMBC	W 77-71	-25.5	L −19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@CIN	L 62-74	+5.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 15	vsBCU	W 91-82	-21.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 173
Nov 19	@MARQ	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsNCCU	W 74-55	-29.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 129
Nov 27	vsGTWN	W 84-79	-1.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

+14.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−19.5

CIN

L 62-74

−6.5

BCU

W 91-82

−12.5

MARQ

W 77-71

+12.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−10.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

−6.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−6.5

CIN

L 62-74

−11.5

BCU

W 91-82

+24.5

MARQ

W 77-71

−3.5

NCCU

W 74-55

−17.5

GTWN

W 84-79

+17.5

over 2under 5avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

BYU Cougars vs Dayton Flyers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

BYU

Dayton

BYU

Dayton