Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Santa Clara Broncos: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 9:30 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

#70MINNMinnesota75final

Final

#106SCUSanta Clara86▲ winner

Closing lineSCU -5.5✓ SCU covered by 5.5

Closing total138.5Over by 22.5

Season records: Minnesota and Santa Clara
MINN	This season	SCU
4-3	Record	5-1
1-6	ATS	5-1
1-6	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MINN 69–74 SCU · ✓ SCU (64%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MINN	27	48	75
SCU	51	35	86

1st half: MINN 27, SCU 51 (SCU by 24). The model had SCU by 2.4 and a total of 67.0 (actual 78).

Team stats

MINN		SCU
24-55 44%	Field goals	31-57 54%
7-24 29%	3-pointers	16-31 52%
20-27 74%	Free throws	8-11 73%
34 13 off	Rebounds	26 5 off
19	Assists	20
6	Steals	6
1	Blocks	5
11	Turnovers	10
12	Fouls	22
34	Points in paint	26
11	Fast-break points	8

Players

MINN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cade Tyson G	39	29	5	4	8-16	1-5
Isaac Asuma G	37	13	4	5	4-11	3-7
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson F	30	6	6	1	3-7	0-2
Langston Reynolds G	22	12	1	1	5-9	0-1
Grayson Grove F	20	2	4	2	1-1	0-0
Bench
Bobby Durkin F	30	7	3	2	1-5	1-5
Kai Shinholster G	22	6	7	4	2-6	2-4

Did not play: RJ Spencer, Maximus Gizzi, Max Lorenson, Chansey Willis Jr., Robert Vaihola, Nehemiah Turner, Chance Stephens, BJ Omot

SCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Elijah Mahi F	29	13	4	2	5-10	3-7
Christian Hammond G	26	20	2	2	8-12	3-5
Brenton Knapper G	24	11	2	3	4-7	3-5
Allen Graves F	19	10	3	6	4-6	1-1
Bukky Oboye C	15	3	2	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Thierry Darlan G	25	10	6	1	3-6	2-3
Francis Chukwudebelu C	23	3	4	1	0-1	0-0
KJ Cochran G	23	10	0	1	4-9	2-7
Sash Gavalyugov G	16	6	1	4	2-4	2-3

Did not play: Noah Badibanga, Jake Ensminger, Brad Longcor III, Juan Reyna, Chris Tadjo, Gehrig Normand, Malachi Douyon, Brendan Yarusso

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SCU -5.5	SCU -4.2	MINN +1.3	L SCU covered
Total	138.5	142.9	Over 4.4	W Over
Projected score	—	MINN 69.4 · SCU 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SCU -2.4	SCU -24.0
1H total	67.0	78
1H projected score	MINN 32.3 · SCU 34.7	MINN 27 · SCU 51

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MINN LLLLL	1-6	14%	0-2	0-2
SCU WWLWW	5-1	83%	1-0	3-1

Venue/role: MINN neutral site, as underdog; SCU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN UUUOU	1-6	14%	4-3
SCU UOUUU	1-5	17%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINNlast 7	4-3 57%	1-6 14%	1-6 14%
SCUlast 6	5-1 83%	5-1 83%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Minnesota

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

1-6

14% covers · avg −7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-614%

L W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGWEB	W 87-60	-28.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 147
Nov 8	vsALCN	W 95-50	-31.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 12	@MIZ	L 60-83	+7.5	L −15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 15	vsGB	W 72-65	-25.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 18	vsCHST	W 66-54	-27.5	L −15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 22	vsSF	L 65-77	-1.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 27	vsSTAN	L 68-72	+2.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

+13.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−18.5

CHST

W 66-54

−15.5

L 65-77

−13.5

STAN

L 68-72

−1.5

covered 1didn’t cover 6avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GWEB

W 87-60

−1.5

ALCN

W 95-50

−7.5

MIZ

L 60-83

−15.5

W 72-65

−9.5

CHST

W 66-54

−24.5

L 65-77

+1.5

STAN

L 68-72

−2.5

over 1under 6avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Santa Clara

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +8.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsMCN	W 79-67	-6.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 10	@XAV	W 87-68	+3.5	W +22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 15	vsNEV	W 98-83	-6.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsIDST	W 64-55	-14.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 119
Nov 21	vsUL	W 80-43	-19.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 27	vsSLU	L 70-71	+1.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

+5.5

XAV

W 87-68

+22.5

NEV

W 98-83

+8.5

IDST

W 64-55

−5.5

W 80-43

+17.5

SLU

L 70-71

+0.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

−5.5

XAV

W 87-68

−0.5

NEV

W 98-83

+36.5

IDST

W 64-55

−22.5

W 80-43

−17.5

SLU

L 70-71

−17.5

over 1under 5avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Santa Clara Broncos

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Minnesota

Santa Clara

Minnesota

Santa Clara