LSU Tigers vs Drake Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 9:46 PM ETRaider Arena · Neutral site

#51LSULSU71▲ winner

Final

#144DRKEDrake62final

Closing lineLSU -11.5✓ DRKE covered by 2.5

Closing total151.5Under by 18.5

Season records: LSU and Drake
LSU	This season	DRKE
5-0	Record	2-2
3-2	ATS	1-3
4-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LSU 85–70 DRKE · ✓ LSU (91%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LSU	38	33	71
DRKE	24	38	62

1st half: LSU 38, DRKE 24 (LSU by 14). The model had LSU by 9.2 and a total of 72.2 (actual 62).

Team stats

LSU		DRKE
26-56 46%	Field goals	22-61 36%
5-19 26%	3-pointers	8-30 27%
14-22 64%	Free throws	10-13 77%
41 5 off	Rebounds	34 6 off
16	Assists	15
3	Steals	4
6	Blocks	2
7	Turnovers	7
12	Fouls	20
40	Points in paint	20
14	Fast-break points	11

Players

LSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dedan Thomas Jr. G	33	18	4	5	6-14	2-6
Max Mackinnon G	29	11	3	4	4-11	0-3
Pablo Tamba F	27	2	4	0	1-1	0-0
Marquel Sutton F	22	8	7	0	4-8	0-3
Mike Nwoko F	21	14	8	2	6-9	0-1
Bench
Rashad King G	20	9	5	1	3-4	2-2
Jalen Reed F	18	2	4	1	0-2	0-1
Robert Miller III F	13	4	4	1	1-3	0-0
PJ Carter G	11	3	1	2	1-3	1-2
Jalen Reece G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jaden Bobbett, Matt Gilhool, Ron Zipper, Mazi Mosley

DRKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Andrew Alia G	36	2	2	1	1-4	0-2
Jalen Quinn G	27	20	6	2	6-11	2-3
Wilguens Jr. Exacte F	26	8	6	3	3-8	0-2
Jaehshon Thomas G	25	16	1	2	6-13	4-6
Okku Federiko F	17	4	1	1	2-7	0-4
Bench
Braden Appelhans G	25	2	2	1	1-5	0-3
Griffen Goodbary F	22	10	5	5	3-9	2-7
Eli Shetlar G	19	0	3	0	0-4	0-3
Isaiah Carr F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Owen Larson, LJ Rush, Bryson Bahl, Heri Bukinga

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LSU -11.5	LSU -15.0	LSU +3.5	L DRKE covered
Total	151.5	154.1	Over 2.6	L Under
Projected score	—	LSU 84.6 · DRKE 69.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LSU -9.2	LSU -14.0
1H total	72.2	62
1H projected score	LSU 40.7 · DRKE 31.5	LSU 38 · DRKE 24

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LSU WWLLW	3-2	60%	—	3-2
DRKE LLLW	1-3	25%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: LSU neutral site, as favorite; DRKE neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU OUOOO	4-1	80%	5-0
DRKE OOUU	2-2	50%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSUlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	4-1 80%
DRKElast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

LSU

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +11.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-180%

O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsTAR	W 96-60	-15.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 156
Nov 10	vsNOLA	W 93-58	-19.5	W +15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 13	vsFIU	W 98-81	-21.5	L −4.5	158.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsALCN	W 107-81	-32.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 21	vsOMA	W 99-73	-20.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+20.5

NOLA

W 93-58

+15.5

FIU

W 98-81

−4.5

ALCN

W 107-81

−6.5

OMA

W 99-73

+5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TAR

W 96-60

+7.5

NOLA

W 93-58

−11.5

FIU

W 98-81

+20.5

ALCN

W 107-81

+32.5

OMA

W 99-73

+8.5

over 4under 1avg +11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Drake

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAU	W 77-71	-8.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 6	vsRMU	L 79-81	-7.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 14	vsSIUE	L 59-61	-7.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 120
Nov 17	@COFC	W 71-62	+7.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

−2.5

RMU

L 79-81

−9.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−9.5

COFC

W 71-62

+16.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

+3.5

RMU

L 79-81

+8.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−22.5

COFC

W 71-62

−20.5

over 2under 2avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

LSU Tigers vs Drake Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

LSU

Drake

LSU

Drake