Fairleigh Dickinson Knights at Providence Friars: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETAmica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence

#356FDUFDU64final

Final

#52PROVProvidence94▲ winner

Closing linePROV -26.5✓ PROV covered by 3.5

Closing total162.5Under by 4.5

Season records: FDU and Providence
FDU	This season	PROV
0-6	Record	4-4
0-6	ATS	4-4
3-3	O/U	6-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: FDU 70–97 PROV · ✓ PROV (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
FDU	21	43	64
PROV	52	42	94

1st half: FDU 21, PROV 52 (PROV by 31). The model had PROV by 16.1 and a total of 78.3 (actual 73).

Team stats

FDU		PROV
22-61 36%	Field goals	35-60 58%
11-26 42%	3-pointers	15-27 56%
9-11 82%	Free throws	9-11 82%
34 19 off	Rebounds	31 9 off
14	Assists	28
5	Steals	11
0	Blocks	8
18	Turnovers	10
15	Fouls	14
20	Points in paint	34
8	Fast-break points	15

Players

FDU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eric Parnell G	28	9	3	3	3-8	1-3
Taeshaud Jackson F	28	9	4	2	3-6	2-4
Raysean Johnson G	25	10	5	1	4-9	2-3
Cyril Martynov C	22	8	7	3	3-9	0-0
Noah Melson G	16	0	1	0	0-5	0-2
Bench
Joey Niesman G	27	14	3	3	4-8	4-6
Arthur Cox F	25	9	4	1	3-9	1-3
David Jevtic G	11	5	1	0	2-5	1-4
Ras Elijah Godbolt G	11	0	0	1	0-2	0-1
Sebastian Haubro C	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Tyler McQuaid G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Cole Alexander F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Andrew Canda, Kody Frey, Josiah Francis, Chid Ekwommadu

PROV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Stefan Vaaks G	30	10	4	10	4-9	2-4
Corey Floyd Jr. G	29	11	3	3	4-8	3-4
Jaylin Sellers G	29	21	3	2	8-10	5-6
Oswin Erhunmwunse F	24	8	4	1	4-4	0-0
Ryan Mela G	23	4	4	4	1-3	0-0
Bench
Jason Edwards G	23	24	2	3	8-14	4-9
Jamier Jones G	12	2	2	4	1-2	0-0
Jaylen Harrell G	10	6	0	0	2-4	0-2
Peteris Pinnis F	8	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Cole Hargrove F	7	3	4	1	1-2	0-0
Nilavan Daniels G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jack Williams G	2	3	0	0	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Daquan Davis, Duncan Powell, Rich Barron

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PROV -26.5	PROV -26.9	PROV +0.4	W PROV covered
Total	162.5	167.3	Over 4.8	L Under
Projected score	—	FDU 70.2 · PROV 97.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PROV -16.1	PROV -31.0
1H total	78.3	73
1H projected score	FDU 31.1 · PROV 47.2	FDU 21 · PROV 52

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FDU LLLLL	0-6	0%	0-4	0-5
PROV LWWLW	4-4	50%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: FDU away, as underdog; PROV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
FDU OUOUO	3-3	50%	0-6
PROV OOUOU	6-2	75%	4-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FDUlast 6	0-6 0%	0-6 0%	3-3 50%
PROVlast 8	4-4 50%	4-4 50%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

FDU

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

0-6

0% covers · avg −5.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ISU	L 50-88	+37.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 138
Nov 8	@SPU	L 83-93	+6.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 176
Nov 12	@TEX	L 58-93	+31.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 151
Nov 15	@NJIT	L 81-93	+2.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 174
Nov 24	vsETAM	L 65-70	+3.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 135
Nov 26	vsARMY	L 73-81	-4.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ISU

L 50-88

−0.5

SPU

L 83-93

−3.5

TEX

L 58-93

−3.5

NJIT

L 81-93

−9.5

ETAM

L 65-70

−1.5

ARMY

L 73-81

−12.5

covered 0didn’t cover 6avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ISU

L 50-88

−9.5

SPU

L 83-93

+38.5

TEX

L 58-93

−7.5

NJIT

L 81-93

+27.5

ETAM

L 65-70

−14.5

ARMY

L 73-81

+1.5

over 3under 3avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Providence

8 games played

Straight up

4-4

50% wins

Against the spread

4-4

50% covers · avg −3.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-2

75% overs · avg +12.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-450%

W L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-450%

L L W L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-275%

O O O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHC	W 89-79	-23.5	L −13.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsVT	L 101-107	-2.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 208
Nov 11	vsPENN	W 106-81	-19.5	W +5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 14	@COLO	L 88-97	+1.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 185
Nov 18	vsUNH	W 98-66	-29.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPSU	W 77-65	-3.5	W +8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 27	vsWIS	L 83-104	+6.5	L −14.5	166.5	O 187
Nov 28	vsFLA	L 78-90	+12.5	W +0.5	169.5	U 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 89-79

−13.5

L 101-107

−8.5

PENN

W 106-81

+5.5

COLO

L 88-97

−7.5

UNH

W 98-66

+2.5

PSU

W 77-65

+8.5

WIS

L 83-104

−14.5

FLA

L 78-90

+0.5

covered 4didn’t cover 4avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 89-79

+15.5

L 101-107

+50.5

PENN

W 106-81

+14.5

COLO

L 88-97

+21.5

UNH

W 98-66

+2.5

PSU

W 77-65

−23.5

WIS

L 83-104

+20.5

FLA

L 78-90

−1.5

over 6under 2avg +12.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights at Providence Friars

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

FDU

Providence

FDU

Providence