Virginia Tech Hokies at South Carolina Gamecocks: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETColonial Life Arena · at South Carolina

Final

Closing lineSC -2.5✓ VT covered by 5.5

Closing total149.5Over by 19.5

Season records: Virginia Tech and South Carolina
VT	This season	SC
6-2	Record	5-2
3-5	ATS	3-4
4-4	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: VT 75–78 SC · ✗ SC (59%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
VT	37	33	16	86
SC	34	36	13	83

1st half: VT 37, SC 34 (VT by 3). The model had SC by 1.4 and a total of 71.5 (actual 71).

Team stats

VT		SC
33-66 50%	Field goals	27-60 45%
6-20 30%	3-pointers	8-29 28%
14-21 67%	Free throws	21-28 75%
37 6 off	Rebounds	28 5 off
18	Assists	11
3	Steals	4
2	Blocks	3
9	Turnovers	8
24	Fouls	17
54	Points in paint	30
10	Fast-break points	7

Players

VT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Amani Hansberry F	39	22	14	3	10-16	0-1
Neo Avdalas G	35	13	8	8	5-11	1-4
Antonio Dorn C	30	8	2	2	4-6	0-0
Tyler Johnson G	24	0	1	3	0-4	0-3
Jailen Bedford G	23	9	6	0	3-9	1-3
Bench
Ben Hammond G	31	16	3	2	5-9	2-4
Jaden Schutt G	31	12	1	0	4-8	2-5
Christian Gurdak C	5	6	0	0	2-2	0-0
Sin'Cere Jones F	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Izaiah Pasha G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Solomon Davis, Shamarius Peterkin, Brett Freeman, Tobi Lawal

SC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kobe Knox G	37	11	2	4	4-8	1-3
Meechie Johnson G	36	18	6	2	7-12	2-6
Mike Sharavjamts G	36	14	6	1	4-8	1-4
Jordan Butler F	14	4	2	0	0-1	0-1
Nordin Kapic F	9	0	0	0	0-3	0-1
Bench
Eli Ellis G	32	5	3	3	1-5	0-1
Elijah Strong F	25	18	3	0	6-16	1-9
Hayden Assemian F	14	2	1	1	1-1	0-0
Grant Polk G	12	3	1	0	1-2	1-2
Christ Essandoko F	10	8	3	0	3-4	2-2

Did not play: Myles Stute, EJ Walker, Abu Yarmah, Cam Scott, Eli Sparkman

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SC -2.5	SC -2.5	—	VT covered
Total	149.5	152.8	Over 3.3	W Over
Projected score	—	VT 75.1 · SC 77.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SC -1.4	VT -3.0
1H total	71.5	71
1H projected score	VT 35.1 · SC 36.4	VT 37 · SC 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT LLLLL	3-5	38%	—	1-2
SC WWLWL	3-4	43%	2-3	2-3

Venue/role: VT away, as underdog; SC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT OUUUO	4-4	50%	6-2
SC OUOOU	5-2	71%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VTlast 8	6-2 75%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%
SClast 7	5-2 71%	3-4 43%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

VT 0–2 SCSC leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · SC has won the last 2 meetings · VT 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 27, 2024-25	SC 70 vs VT 60	VT +6.5	SC W
Nov 10, 2023-24	VT 77 vs SC 79	SC +5.5	SC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Virginia Tech

8 games played

Straight up

6-2

75% wins

Against the spread

3-5

38% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-4

50% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-275%

W W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-538%

W W W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-450%

O O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHSO	W 98-67	-18.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 165
Nov 8	vsPROV	W 107-101	+2.5	W +8.5	157.5	O 208
Nov 12	vsJOES	W 94-59	-12.5	W +22.5	158.5	U 153
Nov 16	vsCLT	W 84-76	-18.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 19	vsBRY	W 78-61	-24.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 26	vsCSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 130
Nov 27	vsSMC	L 66-77	+5.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 28	vsVCU	L 68-86	+2.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+12.5

PROV

W 107-101

+8.5

JOES

W 94-59

+22.5

CLT

W 84-76

−10.5

BRY

W 78-61

−7.5

CSU

W 66-64

−2.5

SMC

L 66-77

−5.5

VCU

L 68-86

−15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 5avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+18.5

PROV

W 107-101

+50.5

JOES

W 94-59

−5.5

CLT

W 84-76

+14.5

BRY

W 78-61

−12.5

CSU

W 66-64

−23.5

SMC

L 66-77

−1.5

VCU

L 68-86

+0.5

over 4under 4avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Carolina

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNCAT	W 91-72	-22.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 9	vsUSM	W 83-79	-17.5	L −13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 12	vsPRES	W 81-61	-16.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsRAD	W 87-58	-10.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsBTLR	L 72-79	+3.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsNU	L 77-79	+4.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsCHSO	W 74-62	-17.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

−3.5

USM

W 83-79

−13.5

PRES

W 81-61

+3.5

RAD

W 87-58

+18.5

BTLR

L 72-79

−3.5

L 77-79

+2.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

+19.5

USM

W 83-79

+14.5

PRES

W 81-61

+4.5

RAD

W 87-58

−8.5

BTLR

L 72-79

+0.5

L 77-79

+9.5

CHSO

W 74-62

−14.5

over 5under 2avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Virginia Tech Hokies at South Carolina Gamecocks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Virginia Tech

South Carolina

Virginia Tech

South Carolina