Saint Mary's Gaels vs Virginia Tech Hokies: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 27, 2:30 PM ETImperial Arena · Neutral site

#97SMCSaint Mary's77▲ winner

Final

Closing lineSMC -5.5✓ SMC covered by 5.5

Closing total144.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Saint Mary's and Virginia Tech
SMC	This season	VT
6-0	Record	6-0
4-2	ATS	3-3
5-1	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SMC 76–72 VT · ✓ SMC (64%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SMC	31	46	77
VT	20	46	66

1st half: SMC 31, VT 20 (SMC by 11). The model had SMC by 2.7 and a total of 69.0 (actual 51).

Team stats

SMC		VT
28-54 52%	Field goals	21-68 31%
6-17 35%	3-pointers	7-30 23%
15-19 79%	Free throws	17-20 85%
39 11 off	Rebounds	34 18 off
12	Assists	11
4	Steals	9
6	Blocks	1
15	Turnovers	9
18	Fouls	20
38	Points in paint	22
6	Fast-break points	7

Players

SMC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joshua Dent G	36	14	3	6	4-11	0-2
Paulius Murauskas F	36	19	7	1	6-14	2-7
Andrew McKeever C	32	14	8	2	7-10	0-0
Mikey Lewis G	27	5	3	2	2-7	1-5
Rory Hawke G	21	10	2	0	4-5	0-0
Bench
Dillan Shaw G	21	9	4	0	3-4	2-2
Liam Campbell G	17	5	3	1	2-2	1-1
Harry Wessels C	8	1	5	0	0-1	0-0
Mantas Juzenas G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Tony Duckett G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Trent MacLean, Oliver Faubert, Kevin Gad, Cade Bennett, Jazz Gardner

VT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Amani Hansberry F	37	18	10	3	6-15	0-6
Ben Hammond G	36	9	2	6	4-11	1-3
Neo Avdalas G	34	13	4	1	3-10	1-5
Jailen Bedford G	25	2	4	0	0-10	0-4
Tyler Johnson G	24	5	5	0	2-5	1-4
Bench
Jaden Schutt G	24	17	0	1	5-10	4-8
Christian Gurdak C	10	0	5	0	0-4	0-0
Antonio Dorn C	8	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Izaiah Pasha G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Solomon Davis, Shamarius Peterkin, Brett Freeman, Sin'Cere Jones, Tobi Lawal

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SMC -5.5	SMC -4.2	VT +1.3	L SMC covered
Total	144.5	147.2	Over 2.7	L Under
Projected score	—	SMC 75.7 · VT 71.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SMC -2.7	SMC -11.0
1H total	69.0	51
1H projected score	SMC 35.8 · VT 33.1	SMC 31 · VT 20

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SMC WWWLL	4-2	67%	0-1	4-2
VT WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: SMC neutral site, as favorite; VT neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMC OOOOU	5-1	83%	6-0
VT OUOUU	3-3	50%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMClast 6	6-0 100%	4-2 67%	5-1 83%
VTlast 6	6-0 100%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Saint Mary's

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTMN	W 84-58	-13.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 7	vsUTC	W 87-66	-15.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 11	vsOHIO	W 90-60	-17.5	W +12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsUNT	W 80-49	-14.5	W +16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 19	vsARST	W 85-72	-20.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 26	vsWICH	W 70-65	-9.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+12.5

UTC

W 87-66

+5.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+12.5

UNT

W 80-49

+16.5

ARST

W 85-72

−7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+0.5

UTC

W 87-66

+7.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+5.5

UNT

W 80-49

+0.5

ARST

W 85-72

+7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

over 5under 1avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Virginia Tech

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +7 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCHSO	W 98-67	-18.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 165
Nov 8	vsPROV	W 107-101	+2.5	W +8.5	157.5	O 208
Nov 12	vsJOES	W 94-59	-12.5	W +22.5	158.5	U 153
Nov 16	vsCLT	W 84-76	-18.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 19	vsBRY	W 78-61	-24.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 26	vsCSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+12.5

PROV

W 107-101

+8.5

JOES

W 94-59

+22.5

CLT

W 84-76

−10.5

BRY

W 78-61

−7.5

CSU

W 66-64

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHSO

W 98-67

+18.5

PROV

W 107-101

+50.5

JOES

W 94-59

−5.5

CLT

W 84-76

+14.5

BRY

W 78-61

−12.5

CSU

W 66-64

−23.5

over 3under 3avg +7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Mary's vs Virginia Tech

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Saint Mary's

Virginia Tech

Saint Mary's

Virginia Tech