Jenny Craig Pavilion · Neutral site
Closing line
FLA -11.5✓ TCU covered by 15.5
FLA -11.5✓ TCU covered by 15.5Closing total155.5Over by 8.5
 TCU | This season | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | ATS | 1-4 |
| 2-3 | O/U | 1-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TCU 69–83 FLA · ✗ FLA (88%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 39 | 45 | 84 |
| FLA | 44 | 36 | 80 |
1st half: TCU 39, FLA 44 (FLA by 5). The model had FLA by 7.9 and a total of 71.2 (actual 83).
Team stats
| TCU | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-59 47% | Field goals | 25-55 45% |
| 4-17 24% | 3-pointers | 8-29 28% |
| 24-33 73% | Free throws | 22-27 81% |
| 28 8 off | Rebounds | 31 10 off |
| 16 | Assists | 16 |
| 12 | Steals | 5 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 19 |
| 19 | Fouls | 26 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 23 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| TCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Harding G | 37 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 6-16 | 0-3 |
| David Punch F | 36 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 7-9 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Pierre G | 24 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Liutauras Lelevicius F | 22 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Xavier Edmonds F | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Micah Robinson G | 30 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3-10 | 1-5 |
| Jace Posey G | 21 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Tanner Toolson G | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Vianney Salatchoum C | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ashton Simmons, Drew McElroy, Adam Stewart, Malick Diallo, Trey Stuart, RJ Jones, Kayden Edwards
| FLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Haugh F | 36 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 7-16 | 3-8 |
| Alex Condon F | 36 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| Rueben Chinyelu C | 28 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| Boogie Fland G | 27 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-3 |
| Xaivian Lee G | 16 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1-6 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Urban Klavzar G | 29 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 5-8 | 4-7 |
| Micah Handlogten C | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Alex Lloyd G | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Isaiah Brown G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Viktor Mikic, CJ Ingram, Olivier Rioux, Alex Kovatchev, Cooper Josefsberg, AJ Brown
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFLA -13.5
2 → TCU
CloseFLA -11.5
2 pts toward TCU
Total
Open152.5
▲ 3
Close155.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
TCU +550 · FLA -800
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FLA -13.5 · closed FLA -11.5 · moved 2 toward TCUmodel FLA -13.5
model FLA -13.5
Opened 152.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 3 upmodel 152
model 152
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | FLA -11.5 | FLA -13.3 | FLA +1.8 | L TCU covered |
| Total | 155.5 | 152.0 | Under 3.5 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | TCU 69.3 · FLA 82.7 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | FLA -7.9 | FLA -5.0 |
| 1H total | 71.2 | 83 |
| 1H projected score | TCU 31.6 · FLA 39.5 | TCU 39 · FLA 44 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCUlast 5 | 3-2 60% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
| FLAlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 1-4 20% | 1-4 20% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
TCU
5 games played
Straight up
3-2
60% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −9.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
NOLA
NOLAL 74-78
−25.5
6
vs
SFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vs
LAM
LAMW 78-65
−5.5
14
vs
MICH
MICHL 63-67
+3.5
19
vs
KC
KCW 81-45
+12.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
+2.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−4.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
−34.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
−24.5
over 2under 3avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
1-4
20% covers · avg −5.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-4
20% overs · avg −13.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
ARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
−9.5
6
vs
UNF
UNFW 104-64
−3.5
11
vs
FSU
FSUW 78-76
−15.5
16
vs
MIA
MIAW 82-68
+3.5
21
vs
MRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−1.5
covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
+15.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−1.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−26.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
−21.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−33.5
over 1under 4avg −13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
TCU
3-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Kansas City81–45
- Lvs Michigan63–67
- Wvs Lamar78–65
- Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves104–63
- Lvs LSU N Orleans74–78
A week or more of rest.
Florida
4-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Merrimack80–45
- Wvs Miami82–68
- Wvs Florida St78–76
- Wvs North Florida104–64
- Lvs Arizona87–93
6 days since their last game.