New Hampshire Wildcats at Providence Friars: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 7:00 PM ETAmica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence

Final

#52PROVProvidence98▲ winner

Closing linePROV -29.5✓ PROV covered by 2.5

Closing total161.5Over by 2.5

Season records: New Hampshire and Providence
UNH	This season	PROV
0-3	Record	2-2
2-1	ATS	1-3
1-2	O/U	4-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNH 66–93 PROV · ✓ PROV (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNH	31	35	66
PROV	38	60	98

1st half: UNH 31, PROV 38 (PROV by 7). The model had PROV by 16.3 and a total of 74.5 (actual 69).

Team stats

UNH		PROV
25-64 39%	Field goals	37-66 56%
8-28 29%	3-pointers	10-26 38%
8-9 89%	Free throws	14-22 64%
34 14 off	Rebounds	40 14 off
13	Assists	21
5	Steals	10
0	Blocks	2
14	Turnovers	8
21	Fouls	13
30	Points in paint	54
7	Fast-break points	18

Players

UNH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jack Graham G	32	21	3	0	9-19	3-8
Davide Poser F	31	9	1	1	3-6	3-6
John Squire F	26	6	12	0	2-3	0-1
Belal El Shakery F	26	16	3	3	6-16	0-4
R.J. Kennedy G	19	0	1	3	0-2	0-2
Bench
Comeh Emuobor F	23	6	7	3	2-9	0-1
Tyler Bike G	19	6	2	3	2-5	2-4
Jon O'Neill F	8	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Giannos Xanthopoulos C	6	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Dylan Saunders F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Myles Blackley G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Nick Sanford G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Antoni Siewruk G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: KiJan Robinson

PROV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Stefan Vaaks G	30	13	1	4	3-5	3-4
Jason Edwards G	30	25	5	8	8-11	3-6
Jaylin Sellers G	25	18	2	1	7-14	2-8
Ryan Mela G	25	12	7	3	5-9	1-3
Oswin Erhunmwunse F	21	4	11	1	2-6	0-0
Bench
Jamier Jones G	24	14	2	3	6-11	1-2
Cole Hargrove F	17	4	5	0	2-3	0-0
Jaylen Harrell G	15	6	2	0	3-4	0-1
Nilavan Daniels G	9	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Jack Williams G	2	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Peteris Pinnis F	2	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Rich Barron, Daquan Davis, Corey Floyd Jr., Duncan Powell

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PROV -29.5	PROV -27.2	UNH +2.3	L PROV covered
Total	161.5	159.1	Under 2.4	L Over
Projected score	—	UNH 66 · PROV 93.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PROV -16.3	PROV -7.0
1H total	74.5	69
1H projected score	UNH 29.1 · PROV 45.4	UNH 31 · PROV 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNH LWW	2-1	67%	2-1	2-1
PROV LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: UNH away, as underdog; PROV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNH UOU	1-2	33%	0-3
PROV OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNHlast 3	0-3 0%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
PROVlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNH 0–1 PROVPROV leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UNH 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 18, 2021-22	UNH 58 @ PROV 69	PROV -13.5	UNH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

New Hampshire

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −15.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

L W W

2 straight covers2 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U O U

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLEM	L 38-88	+29.5	L −20.5	146.5	U 126
Nov 9	@HARV	L 75-86	+15.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 15	@GMU	L 44-61	+24.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 105

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLEM

L 38-88

−20.5

HARV

L 75-86

+4.5

GMU

L 44-61

+7.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLEM

L 38-88

−20.5

HARV

L 75-86

+13.5

GMU

L 44-61

−39.5

over 1under 2avg −15.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Providence

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +25.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHC	W 89-79	-23.5	L −13.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 8	vsVT	L 101-107	-2.5	L −8.5	157.5	O 208
Nov 11	vsPENN	W 106-81	-19.5	W +5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 14	@COLO	L 88-97	+1.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 185

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 89-79

−13.5

L 101-107

−8.5

PENN

W 106-81

+5.5

COLO

L 88-97

−7.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 89-79

+15.5

L 101-107

+50.5

PENN

W 106-81

+14.5

COLO

L 88-97

+21.5

over 4under 0avg +25.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

New Hampshire Wildcats at Providence Friars

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

New Hampshire

Providence

New Hampshire

Providence