Central Arkansas Bears at East Tennessee State Buccaneers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 4:00 PM ETFreedom Hall (TN) · at ETSU

#240CARKC Arkansas57final

Final

#173ETSUETSU80▲ winner

Closing lineETSU -12.5✓ ETSU covered by 10.5

Closing total144.5Under by 7.5

Season records: C Arkansas and ETSU
CARK	This season	ETSU
2-4	Record	4-1
2-4	ATS	4-1
3-3	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CARK 66–80 ETSU · ✓ ETSU (89%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CARK	30	27	57
ETSU	37	43	80

1st half: CARK 30, ETSU 37 (ETSU by 7). The model had ETSU by 8.4 and a total of 68.3 (actual 67).

Team stats

CARK		ETSU
19-60 32%	Field goals	30-58 52%
13-41 32%	3-pointers	12-31 39%
6-8 75%	Free throws	8-16 50%
31 5 off	Rebounds	37 4 off
14	Assists	21
4	Steals	9
0	Blocks	5
13	Turnovers	10
12	Fouls	11
10	Points in paint	34
3	Fast-break points	9

Players

CARK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Luke Moore G	28	13	3	3	4-10	3-7
Camren Hunter G	24	10	4	1	3-8	2-4
Cole McCormick G	20	8	2	0	3-11	2-9
Ty Robinson G	17	0	4	1	0-8	0-5
Malchiah Marable F	16	0	4	1	0-1	0-0
Bench
Truman Byrne F	23	9	7	4	3-6	3-6
Javion Guy-King G	22	5	1	3	2-7	1-4
Harry Beauchamp G	17	6	0	1	2-3	2-3
Tyler Lee G	17	6	0	0	2-4	0-2
Ethan Thomas G	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Parker Applegate G	6	0	3	0	0-1	0-0
Owen Dehrmann G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
J.C. Shulman G	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: R.J. Newton, Rylie Marshall, Chris Mason, Rashad Bolden

ETSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brian Taylor II G	35	14	10	10	5-12	2-6
Blake Barkley F	24	12	5	0	5-7	1-2
Cam Morris III F	20	14	2	3	6-7	1-1
Jordan McCullum F	18	5	2	1	1-4	0-0
Allen Strothers G	17	0	2	3	0-0	0-0
Bench
Jaylen Smith G	31	28	8	1	10-16	7-13
Maki Johnson G	25	0	3	2	0-4	0-4
Brayden Crump F	16	7	4	1	3-4	1-2
Gabe Sisk G	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Isaiah Sutherland F	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Henry Sisemore F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Joseph Carter G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Milton Matthews III, Maddox Huff, Frederico Whitaker Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ETSU -12.5	ETSU -14.2	ETSU +1.7	W ETSU covered
Total	144.5	145.7	Over 1.2	L Under
Projected score	—	CARK 65.7 · ETSU 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ETSU -8.4	ETSU -7.0
1H total	68.3	67
1H projected score	CARK 29.9 · ETSU 38.3	CARK 30 · ETSU 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CARK LLLWW	2-4	33%	0-3	1-4
ETSU LWWWW	4-1	80%	3-0	3-1

Venue/role: CARK away, as underdog; ETSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CARK UOUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
ETSU UUOUO	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CARKlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
ETSUlast 5	4-1 80%	4-1 80%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

C Arkansas

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UNC	L 54-94	+31.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 11	@ARK	L 56-93	+35.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 149
Nov 16	vsSAM	L 77-84	+6.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 161
Nov 20	@UNT	L 56-74	+16.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 23	vsEWU	W 92-65	+4.5	W +31.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsEIU	W 81-60	-5.5	W +15.5	139.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−8.5

ARK

L 56-93

−1.5

SAM

L 77-84

−0.5

UNT

L 56-74

−1.5

EWU

W 92-65

+31.5

EIU

W 81-60

+15.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNC

L 54-94

−9.5

ARK

L 56-93

−9.5

SAM

L 77-84

+9.5

UNT

L 56-74

−4.5

EWU

W 92-65

+2.5

EIU

W 81-60

+1.5

over 3under 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

ETSU

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-180%

L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@PRES	L 64-68	-6.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 12	vsNKU	W 75-63	-6.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 15	@UNA	W 78-74	+1.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 21	vsMORE	W 77-62	-10.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 139
Nov 23	vsULM	W 97-55	-19.5	W +22.5	146.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PRES

L 64-68

−10.5

NKU

W 75-63

+5.5

UNA

W 78-74

+5.5

W 77-62

+4.5

ULM

W 97-55

+22.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PRES

L 64-68

−9.5

NKU

W 75-63

−4.5

UNA

W 78-74

+6.5

W 77-62

−5.5

ULM

W 97-55

+5.5

over 2under 3avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

C Arkansas @ ETSU

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

C Arkansas

ETSU

C Arkansas

ETSU