North Carolina Tar Heels at Kentucky Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 9:30 PM ETRupp Arena · at Kentucky

#44UNCNorth Carolina AP #1667▲ winner

Final

#19UKKentucky AP #1864final

Closing lineUK -7.5✓ UNC covered by 10.5

Closing total163.5Under by 32.5

Season records: North Carolina and Kentucky
UNC	This season	UK
6-1	Record	5-2
4-3	ATS	4-3
3-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNC 75–84 UK · ✗ UK (78%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNC	31	36	67
UK	31	33	64

1st half: UNC 31, UK 31 (tied). The model had UK by 5.3 and a total of 74.7 (actual 62).

Team stats

UNC		UK
26-64 41%	Field goals	23-53 43%
6-20 30%	3-pointers	1-13 8%
9-15 60%	Free throws	17-22 77%
41 20 off	Rebounds	30 8 off
13	Assists	8
5	Steals	8
2	Blocks	7
12	Turnovers	9
19	Fouls	18
34	Points in paint	42
6	Fast-break points	13

Players

UNC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Henri Veesaar C	36	17	10	0	8-12	0-1
Caleb Wilson F	35	15	12	6	5-19	0-2
Jarin Stevenson F	34	4	5	2	2-5	0-2
Luka Bogavac G	29	12	4	2	4-11	3-6
Kyan Evans G	16	2	0	1	1-5	0-2
Bench
Derek Dixon G	24	9	3	2	3-8	1-4
Jonathan Powell G	21	6	2	0	2-3	2-3
Zayden High F	4	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Jaydon Young G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Elijah Davis, Isaiah Denis, John Holbrook, James Brown, Ivan Matlekovic, Seth Trimble, Evan Smith

UK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Denzel Aberdeen G	35	10	4	4	4-13	0-3
Collin Chandler G	34	12	2	1	4-9	0-2
Otega Oweh G	33	16	4	2	6-11	0-1
Malachi Moreno C	31	8	9	0	2-2	0-0
Kam Williams G	16	2	3	0	1-4	0-2
Bench
Andrija Jelavic F	24	6	4	0	3-6	0-3
Trent Noah F	13	2	0	1	0-1	0-1
Brandon Garrison F	9	6	1	0	2-3	1-1
Jasper Johnson G	5	2	0	0	1-4	0-0

Did not play: Walker Horn, Jayden Quaintance, Braydon Hawthorne, Mo Dioubate, Reece Potter, Zach Tow, Jaland Lowe

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UK -7.5	UK -9.0	UK +1.5	L UNC covered
Total	163.5	159.7	Under 3.8	W Under
Projected score	—	UNC 75.3 · UK 84.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UK -5.3	PK
1H total	74.7	62
1H projected score	UNC 34.7 · UK 40	UNC 31 · UK 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC LWLWL	4-3	57%	—	0-1
UK LWLWW	4-3	57%	4-1	4-2

Venue/role: UNC away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC OUUOU	3-4	43%	6-1
UK OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNClast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%
UKlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UNC 0–2 UKUK leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · UK has won the last 2 meetings · UNC 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 16, 2023-24	UNC 83 vs UK 87	UK +1	UK W
Dec 18, 2021-22	UNC 69 vs UK 98	UK -3	UK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Carolina

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −8.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

U O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCARK	W 94-54	-31.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 148
Nov 7	vsKU	W 87-74	-2.5	W +10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsRAD	W 89-74	-20.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 163
Nov 14	vsNCCU	W 97-53	-34.5	W +9.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 18	vsNAVY	W 73-61	-26.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 134
Nov 25	vsSBU	W 85-70	-10.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 27	vsMSU	L 58-74	+1.5	L −14.5	152.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CARK

W 94-54

+8.5

W 87-74

+10.5

RAD

W 89-74

−5.5

NCCU

W 97-53

+9.5

NAVY

W 73-61

−14.5

SBU

W 85-70

+4.5

MSU

L 58-74

−14.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CARK

W 94-54

−9.5

W 87-74

+1.5

RAD

W 89-74

+0.5

NCCU

W 97-53

−9.5

NAVY

W 73-61

−26.5

SBU

W 85-70

+2.5

MSU

L 58-74

−20.5

over 3under 4avg −8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kentucky

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

L W L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNICH	W 77-51	-31.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	vsVAL	W 107-59	-32.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@LOU	L 88-96	+5.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 184
Nov 14	vsEIU	W 99-53	-35.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 18	vsMSU	L 66-83	-3.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsL-MD	W 88-46	-35.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 26	vsTNTC	W 104-54	-37.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−5.5

VAL

W 107-59

+15.5

LOU

L 88-96

−2.5

EIU

W 99-53

+10.5

MSU

L 66-83

−20.5

L-MD

W 88-46

+6.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+12.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−29.5

VAL

W 107-59

+8.5

LOU

L 88-96

+10.5

EIU

W 99-53

+4.5

MSU

L 66-83

−3.5

L-MD

W 88-46

−25.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+0.5

over 4under 3avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Kentucky Wildcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

North Carolina

Kentucky

North Carolina

Kentucky