Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Kentucky Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 7:00 PM ETRupp Arena · at Kentucky

Final

#19UKKentucky AP #19104▲ winner

Closing lineUK -37.5✓ UK covered by 12.5

Closing total157.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Tennessee Tech and Kentucky
TNTC	This season	UK
1-3	Record	4-2
3-1	ATS	3-3
1-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TNTC 60–94 UK · ✓ UK (100%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TNTC	28	26	54
UK	43	61	104

1st half: TNTC 28, UK 43 (UK by 15). The model had UK by 20.3 and a total of 72.3 (actual 71).

Team stats

TNTC		UK
23-69 33%	Field goals	39-66 59%
6-28 21%	3-pointers	15-30 50%
2-5 40%	Free throws	11-13 85%
27 9 off	Rebounds	48 10 off
8	Assists	27
8	Steals	9
1	Blocks	4
11	Turnovers	10
13	Fouls	8
24	Points in paint	48
10	Fast-break points	27

Players

TNTC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mekhi Cameron G	25	3	2	2	1-10	0-6
Ty Owens G	21	4	1	2	2-5	0-1
Brandon Muntu G	21	9	2	0	4-9	1-4
Grant Slatten G	20	2	2	0	1-5	0-3
JaJuan Nicholls F	19	7	6	1	3-6	0-0
Bench
Ja'Quavian Florence G	21	11	2	1	5-12	1-4
Jah'Kim Payne G	18	6	0	0	2-3	2-3
Owen Varnado F	17	0	2	1	0-2	0-2
Dani Pounds F	17	10	2	0	4-10	2-3
C.J. McPherson G	9	0	1	0	0-3	0-2
Malik Ferguson G	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Mekhi Turner F	5	2	0	0	1-3	0-0
Hagan Preston G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Colin Ayers, Jacobe Whitted, Maguire Evans

UK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Collin Chandler G	26	14	5	5	6-11	2-6
Kam Williams G	25	7	5	2	3-6	1-4
Malachi Moreno C	25	13	11	3	4-5	0-0
Otega Oweh G	24	16	2	3	6-11	1-2
Denzel Aberdeen G	22	16	2	4	6-10	4-6
Bench
Jasper Johnson G	21	9	2	4	4-6	1-3
Trent Noah F	21	16	6	1	5-6	4-5
Brandon Garrison F	17	4	4	2	2-7	0-1
Andrija Jelavic F	15	5	10	3	2-3	1-2
Walker Horn G	2	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Zach Tow F	2	1	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Reece Potter, Jaland Lowe, Mo Dioubate, Braydon Hawthorne, Jayden Quaintance

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UK -37.5	UK -33.8	TNTC +3.8	L UK covered
Total	157.5	154.4	Under 3.1	L Over
Projected score	—	TNTC 60.3 · UK 94.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UK -20.3	UK -15.0
1H total	72.3	71
1H projected score	TNTC 26 · UK 46.3	TNTC 28 · UK 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TNTC WWLW	3-1	75%	3-0	3-0
UK WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-1	3-2

Venue/role: TNTC away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TNTC UUUO	1-3	25%	1-3
UK OOOUU	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TNTClast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%
UKlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tennessee Tech

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WKU	L 70-82	+14.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 7	@CLT	L 65-70	+12.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 135
Nov 17	vsWGA	L 59-61	-4.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 120
Nov 19	@UPST	W 88-84	+2.5	W +6.5	150.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WKU

L 70-82

+2.5

CLT

L 65-70

+7.5

WGA

L 59-61

−6.5

UPST

W 88-84

+6.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WKU

L 70-82

−1.5

CLT

L 65-70

−11.5

WGA

L 59-61

−32.5

UPST

W 88-84

+21.5

over 1under 3avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kentucky

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNICH	W 77-51	-31.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	vsVAL	W 107-59	-32.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@LOU	L 88-96	+5.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 184
Nov 14	vsEIU	W 99-53	-35.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 18	vsMSU	L 66-83	-3.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsL-MD	W 88-46	-35.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−5.5

VAL

W 107-59

+15.5

LOU

L 88-96

−2.5

EIU

W 99-53

+10.5

MSU

L 66-83

−20.5

L-MD

W 88-46

+6.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−29.5

VAL

W 107-59

+8.5

LOU

L 88-96

+10.5

EIU

W 99-53

+4.5

MSU

L 66-83

−3.5

L-MD

W 88-46

−25.5

over 3under 3avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Kentucky Wildcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Tennessee Tech

Kentucky

Tennessee Tech

Kentucky