Kansas Jayhawks vs Tennessee Volunteers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 7:00 PM ETMGM Grand Garden Arena · Neutral site

#16KUKansas81▲ winner

Final

#7TENNTennessee AP #1776final

Closing lineTENN -7.5✓ KU covered by 12.5

Closing total140.5Over by 16.5

Season records: Kansas and Tennessee
KU	This season	TENN
5-2	Record	7-0
4-3	ATS	3-4
1-6	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: KU 71–74 TENN · ✗ TENN (60%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
KU	34	47	81
TENN	41	35	76

1st half: KU 34, TENN 41 (TENN by 7). The model had TENN by 1.6 and a total of 67.9 (actual 75).

Team stats

KU		TENN
24-57 42%	Field goals	26-63 41%
7-17 41%	3-pointers	7-25 28%
26-30 87%	Free throws	17-22 77%
37 10 off	Rebounds	36 12 off
12	Assists	13
3	Steals	9
8	Blocks	4
9	Turnovers	7
16	Fouls	21
32	Points in paint	32
9	Fast-break points	8

Players

KU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Melvin Council Jr. G	38	17	6	4	6-17	0-1
Flory Bidunga F	37	13	7	2	5-15	0-0
Bryson Tiller F	33	6	8	2	1-4	0-2
Jamari McDowell G	28	7	1	0	2-3	2-3
Tre White G	20	14	6	1	3-4	2-3
Bench
Elmarko Jackson G	27	17	4	1	4-7	2-3
Kohl Rosario G	14	5	0	2	2-6	1-5
Paul Mbiya C	3	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Nginyu Ngala, Corbin Allen, Samis Calderon, Will Thengvall, Justin Cross, Wilder Evers, Jayden Dawson, Darryn Peterson

TENN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nate Ament F	36	20	9	1	5-15	2-5
Ja'Kobi Gillespie G	36	11	2	4	5-19	1-10
Felix Okpara F	29	7	3	0	2-5	0-0
Bishop Boswell G	27	7	1	4	2-3	1-2
Cade Phillips F	16	4	2	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Jaylen Carey F	26	11	10	4	4-8	0-1
Ethan Burg G	11	3	1	0	1-1	1-1
Amaree Abram G	9	3	1	0	1-4	1-4
J.P. Estrella F	9	10	1	0	4-4	1-1
Troy Henderson G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Campbell Duncan, Gavin Paull, Clarence Massamba, Amari Evans, DeWayne Brown II, Grant Hurst

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TENN -7.5	TENN -2.9	KU +4.6	W KU covered
Total	140.5	144.9	Over 4.4	W Over
Projected score	—	KU 71 · TENN 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TENN -1.6	TENN -7.0
1H total	67.9	75
1H projected score	KU 33.1 · TENN 34.7	KU 34 · TENN 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
KU WLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	0-2
TENN LLLWW	3-4	43%	2-0	2-4

Venue/role: KU neutral site, as underdog; TENN neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU UUUUU	1-6	14%	5-2
TENN OOUOO	5-2	71%	7-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KUlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	1-6 14%
TENNlast 7	7-0 100%	3-4 43%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

KU 1–1 TENNSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · KU 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 22, 2023-24	TENN 60 vs KU 69	KU -0.5	KU W
Nov 25, 2022-23	TENN 64 vs KU 50	KU +1.5	TENN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kansas

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −10.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W L W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGB	W 94-51	-30.5	W +12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@UNC	L 74-87	+2.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsAMCC	W 77-46	-25.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 123
Nov 15	vsPRIN	W 76-57	-22.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsDUKE	L 66-78	+10.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 24	vsND	W 71-61	-5.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 132
Nov 25	vsSYR	W 71-60	-4.5	W +6.5	144.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-51

+12.5

UNC

L 74-87

−10.5

AMCC

W 77-46

+5.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−3.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−1.5

W 71-61

+4.5

SYR

W 71-60

+6.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-51

−7.5

UNC

L 74-87

+1.5

AMCC

W 77-46

−22.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−11.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−5.5

W 71-61

−11.5

SYR

W 71-60

−13.5

over 1under 6avg −10.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Tennessee

7 games played

Straight up

7-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg +5.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-0100%

W W W W W W W

7 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-271%

U O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMER	W 76-61	-28.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsNKU	W 95-56	-27.5	W +11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	vsUNF	W 99-66	-41.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 165
Nov 17	vsRICE	W 91-66	-26.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 20	vsTNST	W 89-60	-31.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsRUTG	W 85-60	-14.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 145
Nov 25	vsHOU	W 76-73	+2.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MER

W 76-61

−13.5

NKU

W 95-56

+11.5

UNF

W 99-66

−8.5

RICE

W 91-66

−1.5

TNST

W 89-60

−2.5

RUTG

W 85-60

+10.5

HOU

W 76-73

+5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MER

W 76-61

−6.5

NKU

W 95-56

+13.5

UNF

W 99-66

+9.5

RICE

W 91-66

+13.5

TNST

W 89-60

−8.5

RUTG

W 85-60

+3.5

HOU

W 76-73

+12.5

over 5under 2avg +5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kansas Jayhawks vs Tennessee Volunteers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kansas

Tennessee

Kansas

Tennessee