Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame
Closing line
MIZ -1.5✓ ND covered by 6.5
MIZ -1.5✓ ND covered by 6.5Closing total146.5Over by 0.5
| MIZ | This season | ND |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | Record | 5-3 |
| 4-4 | ATS | 4-4 |
| 3-5 | O/U | 3-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MIZ 78–75 ND · ✗ MIZ (59%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIZ | 40 | 31 | 71 |
| ND | 33 | 43 | 76 |
1st half: MIZ 40, ND 33 (MIZ by 7). The model had MIZ by 1.8 and a total of 71.3 (actual 73).
Team stats
| MIZ | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-54 44% | Field goals | 25-54 46% |
| 6-21 29% | 3-pointers | 11-33 33% |
| 17-25 68% | Free throws | 15-18 83% |
| 31 9 off | Rebounds | 33 7 off |
| 12 | Assists | 16 |
| 10 | Steals | 4 |
| 1 | Blocks | 2 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 19 | Fouls | 20 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 22 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| MIZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Mitchell Jr. G | 38 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 8-17 | 1-4 |
| Anthony Robinson II G | 37 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 3-8 | 0-3 |
| Shawn Phillips Jr. C | 24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Jevon Porter F | 12 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Sebastian Mack G | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jacob Crews G | 31 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 6-11 | 5-10 |
| T.O. Barrett F | 23 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Luke Northweather F | 16 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Annor Boateng G | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jayden Stone, Nicholas Randall, Aaron Rowe, Trent Pierce, Trent Burns
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Burton G | 38 | 18 | 5 | 10 | 6-15 | 2-7 |
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 35 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3-9 | 3-9 |
| Carson Towt F | 23 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jalen Haralson G | 22 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Garrett Sundra F | 22 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kebba Njie F | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Cole Certa G | 17 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Sir Mohammed G | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Brady Koehler F | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Logan Imes G | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Ryder Frost F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Brady Stevens, Tommy Ahneman, Luke Devine, Matthew MacLellan
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIZ -1.5
ModelMIZ -2.7
Model edgeMIZ +1.2
L ND covered
Total
Market146.5
Model152.4
Model edgeOver 5.9
W Over
Projected score
MIZ 77.5 · ND 74.9
MIZ 71 · ND 76
Win probability
MIZ 59%
1st half
Spread
MIZ -1.8
MIZ -7.0
Total
71.3
73 points
Projected score
MIZ 36.6 · ND 34.8
MIZ 40 · ND 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIZ -1.5
no move
CloseMIZ -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open148.5
▼ 2
Close146.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
MIZ -110 · ND -110
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIZ -1.5 · unchangedmodel MIZ -2.5
model MIZ -2.5
Opened 148.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 2 downmodel 152.5
model 152.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIZlast 8 | 8-0 100% | 4-4 50% | 3-5 38% |
| NDlast 8 | 5-3 63% | 4-4 50% | 3-5 38% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Missouri
8 games played
Straight up
8-0
100% wins
Against the spread
4-4
50% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-5
38% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ HOW | W 88-67 | -20.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 7 | vs SEMO | W 89-84 | -25.5 | L −20.5 | 157.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 9 | vs VMI | W 106-68 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 12 | vs MINN | W 83-60 | -7.5 | W +15.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 17 | vs PV | W 91-73 | -35.5 | L −17.5 | 166.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 20 | vs SDAK | W 102-68 | -24.5 | W +9.5 | 171.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs SCST | W 98-66 | -34.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs CLE | W 86-59 | -31.5 | L −4.5 | 170.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
+0.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
−20.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+14.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
+15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−17.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
+9.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
−2.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−4.5
covered 4didn’t cover 4avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
−3.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
+15.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+12.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
−15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−2.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
−1.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
+3.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−25.5
over 3under 5avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Notre Dame
8 games played
Straight up
5-3
63% wins
Against the spread
4-4
50% covers · avg 0 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-5
38% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LIU | W 89-67 | -15.5 | W +6.5 | 135.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 7 | vs DETM | W 102-70 | -21.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 11 | vs EIU | W 78-58 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 143.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | @ OSU | L 63-64 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 19 | vs BELL | W 86-79 | -24.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 24 | vs KU | L 61-71 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs RUTG | W 68-63 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs HOU | L 56-66 | +11.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
−17.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−4.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−1.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
+1.5
covered 4didn’t cover 4avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
19
vsBELL
BELLW 86-79
+14.5
24
vsKU
KUL 61-71
−11.5
25
vsRUTG
RUTGW 68-63
−9.5
26
vsHOU
HOUL 56-66
−10.5
over 3under 5avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Missouri
8-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Cleveland St86–59
- Wvs SC State98–66
- Wvs South Dakota102–68
- Wvs Prairie View91–73
- Wvs Minnesota83–60
4 days since their last game.
Notre Dame
5-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Houston56–66
- Wvs Rutgers68–63
- Lvs Kansas61–71
- Wvs Bellarmine86–79
- L@ Ohio State63–64
6 days since their last game.