Suncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site
Closing line
UNC -10.5✓ UNC covered by 4.5
UNC -10.5✓ UNC covered by 4.5Closing total152.5Over by 2.5
 SBU | This season | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 5-0 |
| 2-3 | ATS | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | O/U | 2-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SBU 69–82 UNC · ✓ UNC (86%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBU | 33 | 37 | 70 |
| UNC | 35 | 50 | 85 |
1st half: SBU 33, UNC 35 (UNC by 2). The model had UNC by 7.4 and a total of 70.8 (actual 68).
Team stats
| SBU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-70 41% | Field goals | 28-55 51% |
| 7-17 41% | 3-pointers | 8-18 44% |
| 5-8 63% | Free throws | 21-27 78% |
| 31 11 off | Rebounds | 40 10 off |
| 13 | Assists | 17 |
| 8 | Steals | 5 |
| 5 | Blocks | 1 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| SBU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darryl Simmons II G | 36 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 9-16 | 4-6 |
| Frank Mitchell F | 31 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 9-18 | 0-0 |
| Dasonte Bowen G | 25 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2-8 | 0-1 |
| Cayden Charles G | 24 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-1 |
| Joe Grahovac F | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Daniel Egbuniwe F | 23 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3-8 | 2-5 |
| Amar'e Marshall G | 15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Ilia Ermakov G | 15 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Andrew Osasuyi F | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Achille Lonati G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Brayden Jackson, John Ikpotokin, Broek Ostrom, Xander Wedlow, Jack DeRose
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henri Veesaar C | 35 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 9-14 | 1-3 |
| Caleb Wilson F | 32 | 18 | 12 | 1 | 4-12 | 0-0 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 31 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-3 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 30 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
| Kyan Evans G | 25 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 4-5 | 3-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jonathan Powell G | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Derek Dixon G | 16 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Zayden High F | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Jaydon Young G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Denis G | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| James Brown C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Seth Trimble, Evan Smith, Ivan Matlekovic, John Holbrook, Elijah Davis
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUNC -10.5
ModelUNC -12.6
Model edgeUNC +2.1
W UNC covered
Total
Market152.5
Model151.3
Model edgeUnder 1.3
L Over
Projected score
SBU 69.3 · UNC 81.9
SBU 70 · UNC 85
Win probability
UNC 86%
1st half
Spread
UNC -7.4
UNC -2.0
Total
70.8
68 points
Projected score
SBU 31.7 · UNC 39.1
SBU 33 · UNC 35
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -10.5
no move
CloseUNC -10.5
No change since the open
Total
Open152.5
no move
Close152.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
SBU +500 · UNC -700
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -10.5 · unchangedmodel UNC -12.5
model UNC -12.5
Opened 152.5 · unchangedmodel 151.5
model 151.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBUlast 5 | 5-0 100% | 2-3 40% | 3-2 60% |
| UNClast 5 | 5-0 100% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
St Bonaventure
5 games played
Straight up
5-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-3
40% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-2
60% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
BRAD
BRADW 69-63
+4.5
8
vs
CAN
CANW 89-70
−2.5
12
vs
SIE
SIEW 75-66
−0.5
15
vs
YSU
YSUW 84-80
−5.5
20
vs
RMU
RMUW 75-61
+2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBRAD
BRADW 69-63
−7.5
8
vsCAN
CANW 89-70
+22.5
12
vsSIE
SIEW 75-66
+0.5
15
vsYSU
YSUW 84-80
+17.5
20
vsRMU
RMUW 75-61
−10.5
over 3under 2avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
North Carolina
5 games played
Straight up
5-0
100% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −8.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
CARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vs
KU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vs
RAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vs
NCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vs
NAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
over 2under 3avg −8.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
St Bonaventure
5-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Robert Morris75–61
- Wvs Youngstown St84–80
- Wvs Siena75–66
- Wvs Canisius89–70
- Wvs Bradley69–63
5 days since their last game.
North Carolina
5-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Navy73–61
- Wvs NC Central97–53
- Wvs Radford89–74
- Wvs Kansas87–74
- Wvs C Arkansas94–54
A week or more of rest.