Provident Credit Union Event Center · at San José St
#192UTSAUTSA
@
#143SJSUSan José St
LineSJSU -8.5moved 1 toward SJSU
Total153.5no move
Season records: UTSA and San José St
UTSAThis seasonSJSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SJSU 79–71 · win probability SJSU 76%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
SJSU -8.5
moved 1 toward SJSU
Total
153.5
model 150.7 · Under by 3
Model edge
Even
matches the market
Public on the spread
56% SJSU
55% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SJSU has more of the edges

UTSA 0, SJSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SJSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTSA 17.4%, SJSU 15.1%. Forced: UTSA 14.7%, SJSU 17.4%
SJSUSmall
Three-pointers
UTSA hits 29.2% and allows 35.1%; SJSU hits 35.3% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 41.3% and 38.3% of their shots
SJSUSmall
SJSU offense vs UTSA defense
Offense 141st of 366 against a defense 238th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UTSA plays 69.6 a game (142nd fastest), SJSU 66.0 (315th). Faster games mean more points
SJSUSmall
Home court
SJSU at home. This season: SJSU 0-0 at home, UTSA 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTSA 29.5, SJSU 33.4. Allowed: UTSA 33.3, SJSU 35.4
Context
Schedule so far
UTSA has played the 104th-hardest schedule, SJSU the 85th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTSA 15%, SJSU 24%. Transfers in: UTSA 9, SJSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTSA 30.2%, SJSU 29.3%. Defensive: UTSA 61.3%, SJSU 63.5%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTSA 44.8 and allows 53.3; SJSU 49.7 and allows 57.1
Even
UTSA offense vs SJSU defense
Offense 155th of 366 against a defense 151st, on the model’s ratings

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Home favorites of 7 to 9.5180678%49%50%
Non-conference games at this spread83279%51%51%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward SJSU
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
UTSA +250 · SJSU -310
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened SJSU -7.5 · now SJSU -8.5 · moved 1 toward SJSUmodel SJSU -8 matches the line
Opened 153.5 · now 153.5 · moved 0.5 downmodel 150.5
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
UTSA +8.5SpreadSJSU -8.5
Bets
Money
Over 153.5TotalUnder 153.5
Bets
Money
UTSAWinnerSJSU
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
UTSASJSUOverUnderUTSASJSU
BetMGMMGM-8.5-115+8.5-105153.5-105153.5-115+290-375
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag-8-110+8-110153-110153-110——
BetRiversBetRivers-8.5-108+8.5-115153.5-110153.5-115+310-455
BetUSBetUS-8-110+8-110153-110153-110——
BovadaBovada-8-110+8-110153-110153-110+265-330
DraftKingsDK-8.5-115+8.5-105153.5-105153.5-115+300-380
FanDuelFD-8.5-114+8.5-106153.5-110153.5-110+290-375
LowVig.agLowVig.ag-8-106+8-106153-108153-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadSJSU -8.5SJSU -8.2UTSA +0.3
Total153.5150.7Under 2.8
Projected score—UTSA 71.2 · SJSU 79.4

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadSJSU -4.7—
1H total70.4—
1H projected scoreUTSA 32.8 · SJSU 37.6—

San José St has the better starters

Position by position: UTSA 0, San José St 1, even 4
UTSABetterSan José St
G D. Hayes8.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 16
SJSUSmall
G P. Goodarzi8.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 35
G J. Kelly TR8.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 44
No call
G J. Hannah7.5 pts · 1 reb · 0.5 ast Not ranked
G D. Williams TR10 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 72
No call
F Z. Eddine Bedri TR12.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.2 ast Not ranked
G P. Turner TR7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 31
No call
F R. Vaihola TR5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked
G I. Coleman TR6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50
Even
F M. Cook TR7.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 61
UTSABetterSan José St
UTSA offense155th of 366 · -4.7
Even
SJSU defense151st of 366 · -3.3
UTSA defense238th of 366 · -6.2
SJSUSmall
SJSU offense141st of 366 · -4.3
Backcourt-5.4 · 5 players
SJSUBig
Backcourt-1.8 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+2.3 · 3 players
Bench-3.5 · 5 players
SJSUBig
Bench+1.4 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUTSA betterSJSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UTSA
Guards
D. Hayes31 minJ. Kelly27 min · TRD. Williams22 min · TRP. Turner20 min · TRI. Coleman19 min · TRS. Eberwein19 min · TR
Forwards
A. Smith5 min · TRC. OkpukparaNewM. BroxtonNewJ. PetersonNewK. TaylorNew
San José St
Guards
P. Goodarzi26 minJ. Hannah22 minM. Mason20 min · TRJ. Chammaa17 min · TRR. GreenNewC. KruegerNew
Forwards
Z. Eddine Bedri24 min · TRR. Vaihola21 min · TRM. Cook21 min · TRK. Martin8 min · TRL. HowardNew
Centers
M. Dau NyangolNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTSASJSU
Scoring
67.3 #329Points per game70.8 #269
0.96 #348Points per possession1.07 #203
69.6 #142Pace (possessions)66.0 #315
Shooting
44.8 #360Effective FG%49.7 #255
29.2 #3513-point %35.3 #97
41.3 #1433-point attempt rate38.3 #204
29.5 #320Free throw rate33.4 #225
Possessions
17.4 #231Turnover rate15.1 #77
30.2 #191Offensive rebound rate29.3 #225
10.1 #357Assists per game10.3 #353
Defense
82.9 #345Points allowed79.2 #305
1.20 #356Points allowed per possession1.20 #359
53.3 #277Opponent effective FG%57.1 #359
35.1 #251Opponent 3-point %36.0 #305
14.7 #309Turnovers forced17.4 #123
61.3 #363Defensive rebound rate63.5 #354
6.3 #203Steals per game5.8 #259
4.3 #52Blocks per game2.2 #333

UTSA

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 1-17 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Rice71–80
  • Lvs Wichita St67–84
  • Lvs East Carolina81–82
  • L@ Tulsa74–100
  • Lvs FAU52–60

A week or more of rest.

San José St

8-24 in 2025-26 overall · 4-18 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs New Mexico77–93
  • Wvs Boise St84–74
  • Lvs Wyoming78–88
  • L@ Fresno St68–82
  • Lvs Colorado St73–85

A week or more of rest.