Provident Credit Union Event Center · at San José St
Line
SJSU -8.5moved 1 toward SJSU
Total153.5no move
| This season | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | ATS | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | O/U | 0-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SJSU 79–71 · win probability SJSU 76%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
SJSU -8.5
moved 1 toward SJSU
Total
153.5
model 150.7 · Under by 3
Model edge
Even
matches the market
Public on the spread
56% SJSU
55% of the money
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SJSU has more of the edges
UTSA 0, SJSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTSA 17.4%, SJSU 15.1%. Forced: UTSA 14.7%, SJSU 17.4%
Three-pointers
UTSA hits 29.2% and allows 35.1%; SJSU hits 35.3% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 41.3% and 38.3% of their shots
SJSU offense vs UTSA defense
Offense 141st of 366 against a defense 238th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UTSA plays 69.6 a game (142nd fastest), SJSU 66.0 (315th). Faster games mean more points
Home court
SJSU at home. This season: SJSU 0-0 at home, UTSA 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTSA 29.5, SJSU 33.4. Allowed: UTSA 33.3, SJSU 35.4
Context
Schedule so far
UTSA has played the 104th-hardest schedule, SJSU the 85th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTSA 15%, SJSU 24%. Transfers in: UTSA 9, SJSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTSA 30.2%, SJSU 29.3%. Defensive: UTSA 61.3%, SJSU 63.5%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTSA 44.8 and allows 53.3; SJSU 49.7 and allows 57.1
Even
UTSA offense vs SJSU defense
Offense 155th of 366 against a defense 151st, on the model’s ratings
How games like this went
Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
| Situation | Games | Favorite won | Favorite covered | Went over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites of 7 to 9.5 | 1806 | 78% | 49% | 50% |
| Non-conference games at this spread | 832 | 79% | 51% | 51% |
| Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite | 6763 | 75% | 50% | 51% |
| Games with a total of 150 to 154.5 | 2755 | 75% | 51% | 50% |
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenSJSU -7.5
1 → SJSU
NowSJSU -8.5
1 pt toward SJSU
Total
Open153.5
no move
Now153.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
UTSA +250 · SJSU -310
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened SJSU -7.5 · now SJSU -8.5 · moved 1 toward SJSUmodel SJSU -8 matches the line
model SJSU -8 = line ✓
Opened 153.5 · now 153.5 · moved 0.5 downmodel 150.5
model 150.5
Openline modelNow
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Bets
Money
Over 153.5TotalUnder 153.5
Bets
Money
Bets
Money
Books
8 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | SJSU | Over | Under | UTSA | SJSU | |
| BetMGMMGM | -8.5-115 | +8.5-105 | 153.5-105 | 153.5-115 | +290 | -375 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | -8-110 | +8-110 | 153-110 | 153-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -8.5-108 | +8.5-115 | 153.5-110 | 153.5-115 | +310 | -455 |
| BetUSBetUS | -8-110 | +8-110 | 153-110 | 153-110 | — | — |
| BovadaBovada | -8-110 | +8-110 | 153-110 | 153-110 | +265 | -330 |
| DraftKingsDK | -8.5-115 | +8.5-105 | 153.5-105 | 153.5-115 | +300 | -380 |
| FanDuelFD | -8.5-114 | +8.5-106 | 153.5-110 | 153.5-110 | +290 | -375 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -8-106 | +8-106 | 153-108 | 153-108 | — | — |
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | SJSU -8.5 | SJSU -8.2 | UTSA +0.3 |
| Total | 153.5 | 150.7 | Under 2.8 |
| Projected score | — | UTSA 71.2 · SJSU 79.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | SJSU -4.7 | — |
| 1H total | 70.4 | — |
| 1H projected score | UTSA 32.8 · SJSU 37.6 | — |
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Last 10 games
2025-26
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-9 10% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | |
| 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 9-1 90% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UTSA
28 games played
Straight up
3-25
11% wins
Against the spread
10-18
36% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-15
46% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs | L 60-77 | -6.5 | L −23.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 12 | @ | L 69-80 | +2.5 | L −8.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 15 | @ | W 84-79 | +4.5 | W +9.5 | 148.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 24 | vs | L 50-61 | +2.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 111 |
| Nov 25 | vs | W 77-64 | +3.5 | W +16.5 | 160.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 30 | vs | L 58-82 | +1.5 | L −22.5 | 141.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 7 | @ | L 55-97 | +33.5 | L −8.5 | 171.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 13 | @ | L 64-88 | +22.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 17 | @ | L 70-97 | +25.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 22 | vs | L 68-71 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 31 | @ | L 70-110 | +16.5 | L −23.5 | 158.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ | L 57-76 | +10.5 | L −8.5 | 149.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 7 | vs | L 58-74 | +6.5 | L −9.5 | 145.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 10 | vs | L 52-85 | +7.5 | L −25.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 14 | vs | L 73-89 | +6.5 | L −9.5 | 144.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 18 | @ | L 69-95 | +20.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 21 | @ | L 62-81 | +15.5 | L −3.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 24 | vs | L 64-70 | +10.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 28 | vs | L 73-83 | +12.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | O 156 |
| Feb 4 | @ | L 88-109 | +23.5 | W +2.5 | 164.5 | O 197 |
| Feb 7 | vs | L 58-81 | +10.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | U 139 |
| Feb 11 | @ | L 72-88 | +10.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 160 |
| Feb 15 | @ | W 88-79 | +13.5 | W +22.5 | 148.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 18 | vs | L 52-60 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | U 112 |
| Feb 22 | @ | L 74-100 | +21.5 | L −4.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Feb 25 | vs | L 81-82 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 163 |
| Mar 1 | vs | L 67-84 | +15.5 | L −1.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
| Mar 8 | @ | L 71-80 | +11.5 | W +2.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vs
SIUE
L 60-77
−23.5
12
@
TXST
L 69-80
−8.5
15
@
DEN
W 84-79
+9.5
24
vs
ACU
L 50-61
−8.5
25
vs
GASO
W 77-64
+16.5
30
vs
USA
L 58-82
−22.5
7
@
ALA
L 55-97
−8.5
13
@
COLO
L 64-88
−1.5
17
@
USC
L 70-97
−1.5
22
vs
SEA
L 68-71
+7.5
31
@
FAU
L 70-110
−23.5
3
@
TEM
L 57-76
−8.5
7
vs
CLT
L 58-74
−9.5
10
vs
TULN
L 52-85
−25.5
14
vs
RICE
L 73-89
−9.5
18
@
MEM
L 69-95
−5.5
21
@
UNT
L 62-81
−3.5
24
vs
TEM
L 64-70
+4.5
28
vs
UAB
L 73-83
+2.5
4
@
USF
L 88-109
+2.5
7
vs
UNT
L 58-81
−12.5
11
@
ECU
L 72-88
−5.5
15
@
CLT
W 88-79
+22.5
18
vs
FAU
L 52-60
+3.5
22
@
TLSA
L 74-100
−4.5
25
vs
ECU
L 81-82
+3.5
1
vs
WICH
L 67-84
−1.5
8
@
RICE
L 71-80
+2.5
covered 10didn’t cover 18avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vs
SIUE
L 60-77
−16.5
12
@
TXST
L 69-80
+1.5
15
@
DEN
W 84-79
+14.5
24
vs
ACU
L 50-61
−33.5
25
vs
GASO
W 77-64
−19.5
30
vs
USA
L 58-82
−1.5
7
@
ALA
L 55-97
−19.5
13
@
COLO
L 64-88
−2.5
17
@
USC
L 70-97
+9.5
22
vs
SEA
L 68-71
−9.5
31
@
FAU
L 70-110
+21.5
3
@
TEM
L 57-76
−16.5
7
vs
CLT
L 58-74
−13.5
10
vs
TULN
L 52-85
−10.5
14
vs
RICE
L 73-89
+17.5
18
@
MEM
L 69-95
+16.5
21
@
UNT
L 62-81
+4.5
24
vs
TEM
L 64-70
−11.5
28
vs
UAB
L 73-83
+0.5
4
@
USF
L 88-109
+32.5
7
vs
UNT
L 58-81
−2.5
11
@
ECU
L 72-88
+9.5
15
@
CLT
W 88-79
+18.5
18
vs
FAU
L 52-60
−45.5
22
@
TLSA
L 74-100
+14.5
25
vs
ECU
L 81-82
+9.5
1
vs
WICH
L 67-84
−0.5
8
@
RICE
L 71-80
−0.5
over 13under 15avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
San José St
32 games played
Straight up
8-24
25% wins
Against the spread
16-16
50% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
21-11
66% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ | L 75-84 | +11.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 8 | @ | L 74-85 | +9.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 13 | @ | L 60-79 | +24.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 21 | vs | W 80-66 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 25 | vs | L 51-81 | +5.5 | L −24.5 | 149.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 26 | vs | W 63-51 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 136.5 | U 114 |
| Nov 30 | vs | L 63-72 | +3.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 5 | vs | W 86-69 | -6.5 | W +10.5 | 144.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 9 | vs | W 89-83 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 13 | vs | L 82-86 | +8.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 20 | @ | L 65-88 | +16.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 30 | vs | L 68-81 | +11.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 3 | @ | L 78-96 | +22.5 | W +4.5 | 151.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 6 | vs | L 55-70 | +1.5 | L −13.5 | 149.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @ | L 58-76 | +16.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 13 | vs | W 70-62 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 128.5 | O 132 |
| Jan 17 | vs | L 62-76 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 20 | @ | L 54-87 | +16.5 | L −16.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 24 | @ | L 62-66 | +13.5 | W +9.5 | 141.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 27 | vs | L 58-89 | +12.5 | L −18.5 | 141.5 | O 147 |
| Jan 31 | vs | L 80-90 | +15.5 | W +5.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Feb 7 | @ | L 57-65 | +15.5 | W +7.5 | 138.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 10 | @ | L 75-82 | +12.5 | W +5.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Feb 14 | vs | L 79-94 | +11.5 | L −3.5 | 139.5 | O 173 |
| Feb 17 | vs | W 87-71 | +10.5 | W +26.5 | 141.5 | O 158 |
| Feb 21 | @ | L 69-84 | +18.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 24 | @ | W 86-80 | -6.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 28 | vs | L 73-85 | +4.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Mar 3 | @ | L 68-82 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 151.5 | U 150 |
| Mar 7 | vs | L 78-88 | +6.5 | L −3.5 | 148.5 | O 166 |
| Mar 11 | vs | W 84-74 | +14.5 | W +24.5 | 146.5 | O 158 |
| Mar 12 | vs | L 77-93 | +16.5 | W +0.5 | 154.5 | O 170 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
UTAH
L 75-84
+2.5
8
@
UCSB
L 74-85
−1.5
13
@
MSU
L 60-79
+5.5
21
vs
SOU
W 80-66
+8.5
25
vs
TLSA
L 51-81
−24.5
26
vs
LUC
W 63-51
+10.5
30
vs
UCI
L 63-72
−5.5
5
vs
USD
W 86-69
+10.5
9
vs
LBSU
W 89-83
−1.5
13
vs
STAN
L 82-86
+4.5
20
@
UNM
L 65-88
−6.5
30
vs
SDSU
L 68-81
−1.5
3
@
USU
L 78-96
+4.5
6
vs
FRES
L 55-70
−13.5
10
@
GCU
L 58-76
−1.5
13
vs
AF
W 70-62
+2.5
17
vs
UNLV
L 62-76
−6.5
20
@
NEV
L 54-87
−16.5
24
@
WYO
L 62-66
+9.5
27
vs
BOIS
L 58-89
−18.5
31
vs
UNM
L 80-90
+5.5
7
@
CSU
L 57-65
+7.5
10
@
UNLV
L 75-82
+5.5
14
vs
GCU
L 79-94
−3.5
17
vs
NEV
W 87-71
+26.5
21
@
BOIS
L 69-84
+3.5
24
@
AF
W 86-80
−0.5
28
vs
CSU
L 73-85
−7.5
3
@
FRES
L 68-82
−6.5
7
vs
WYO
L 78-88
−3.5
11
vs
BOIS
W 84-74
+24.5
12
vs
UNM
L 77-93
+0.5
covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@
UTAH
L 75-84
+12.5
8
@
UCSB
L 74-85
+12.5
13
@
MSU
L 60-79
−4.5
21
vs
SOU
W 80-66
−4.5
25
vs
TLSA
L 51-81
−17.5
26
vs
LUC
W 63-51
−22.5
30
vs
UCI
L 63-72
−4.5
5
vs
USD
W 86-69
+10.5
9
vs
LBSU
W 89-83
+30.5
13
vs
STAN
L 82-86
+22.5
20
@
UNM
L 65-88
+0.5
30
vs
SDSU
L 68-81
+7.5
3
@
USU
L 78-96
+22.5
6
vs
FRES
L 55-70
−24.5
10
@
GCU
L 58-76
−7.5
13
vs
AF
W 70-62
+3.5
17
vs
UNLV
L 62-76
−8.5
20
@
NEV
L 54-87
+3.5
24
@
WYO
L 62-66
−13.5
27
vs
BOIS
L 58-89
+5.5
31
vs
UNM
L 80-90
+21.5
7
@
CSU
L 57-65
−16.5
10
@
UNLV
L 75-82
+7.5
14
vs
GCU
L 79-94
+33.5
17
vs
NEV
W 87-71
+16.5
21
@
BOIS
L 69-84
+6.5
24
@
AF
W 86-80
+20.5
28
vs
CSU
L 73-85
+6.5
3
@
FRES
L 68-82
−1.5
7
vs
WYO
L 78-88
+17.5
11
vs
BOIS
W 84-74
+11.5
12
vs
UNM
L 77-93
+15.5
over 21under 11avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
San José St has the better starters
Position by position: UTSA 0, San José St 1, even 4
UTSABetterSan José St
G D. Hayes8.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.8 ast
Score 16
→SJSUSmall
G P. Goodarzi8.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.9 ast
Score 35
G J. Kelly TR8.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.6 ast
Score 44
=No call
G J. Hannah7.5 pts · 1 reb · 0.5 ast
Not ranked
G D. Williams TR10 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast
Score 72
=No call
F Z. Eddine Bedri TR12.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 2.2 ast
Not ranked
G P. Turner TR7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.8 ast
Score 31
=No call
F R. Vaihola TR5 pts · 7.6 reb · 1.4 ast
Not ranked
G I. Coleman TR6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast
Score 50
=Even
F M. Cook TR7.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.5 ast
Score 61
UTSABetterSan José St
UTSA offense155th of 366 · -4.7
=Even
SJSU defense151st of 366 · -3.3
UTSA defense238th of 366 · -6.2
→SJSUSmall
SJSU offense141st of 366 · -4.3
Backcourt-5.4 · 5 players
→SJSUBig
Backcourt-1.8 · 2 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
=No call
Frontcourt+2.3 · 3 players
Bench-3.5 · 5 players
→SJSUBig
Bench+1.4 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUTSA betterSJSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Guards
D. Hayes31 minJ. Kelly27 min · TRD. Williams22 min · TRP. Turner20 min · TRI. Coleman19 min · TRS. Eberwein19 min · TR
Forwards
A. Smith5 min · TRC. OkpukparaNewM. BroxtonNewJ. PetersonNewK. TaylorNew
Guards
P. Goodarzi26 minJ. Hannah22 minM. Mason20 min · TRJ. Chammaa17 min · TRR. GreenNewC. KruegerNew
Forwards
Z. Eddine Bedri24 min · TRR. Vaihola21 min · TRM. Cook21 min · TRK. Martin8 min · TRL. HowardNew
Centers
M. Dau NyangolNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.
Matchup stats
2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Points per game
Points per possession
Pace (possessions)
Shooting
Effective FG%
3-point %
3-point attempt rate
Free throw rate
Possessions
Turnover rate
Offensive rebound rate
Assists per game
Defense
Points allowed
Points allowed per possession
Opponent effective FG%
Opponent 3-point %
Turnovers forced
Defensive rebound rate
Steals per game
Blocks per game
| Scoring | ||
|---|---|---|
| 67.3 #329 | Points per game | 70.8 #269 |
| 0.96 #348 | Points per possession | 1.07 #203 |
| 69.6 #142 | Pace (possessions) | 66.0 #315 |
| Shooting | ||
| 44.8 #360 | Effective FG% | 49.7 #255 |
| 29.2 #351 | 3-point % | 35.3 #97 |
| 41.3 #143 | 3-point attempt rate | 38.3 #204 |
| 29.5 #320 | Free throw rate | 33.4 #225 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.4 #231 | Turnover rate | 15.1 #77 |
| 30.2 #191 | Offensive rebound rate | 29.3 #225 |
| 10.1 #357 | Assists per game | 10.3 #353 |
| Defense | ||
| 82.9 #345 | Points allowed | 79.2 #305 |
| 1.20 #356 | Points allowed per possession | 1.20 #359 |
| 53.3 #277 | Opponent effective FG% | 57.1 #359 |
| 35.1 #251 | Opponent 3-point % | 36.0 #305 |
| 14.7 #309 | Turnovers forced | 17.4 #123 |
| 61.3 #363 | Defensive rebound rate | 63.5 #354 |
| 6.3 #203 | Steals per game | 5.8 #259 |
| 4.3 #52 | Blocks per game | 2.2 #333 |
UTSA
3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 1-17 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Rice71–80
- Lvs Wichita St67–84
- Lvs East Carolina81–82
- L@ Tulsa74–100
- Lvs FAU52–60
A week or more of rest.
San José St
8-24 in 2025-26 overall · 4-18 in conference · Mountain West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs New Mexico77–93
- Wvs Boise St84–74
- Lvs Wyoming78–88
- L@ Fresno St68–82
- Lvs Colorado St73–85
A week or more of rest.