1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 15
  3. TXST @ UTSA
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 15

Texas State Bobcats at UTSA Roadrunners

UTSA Convocation Center · at UTSA
#103TXSTTexas St
@
#192UTSAUTSA
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TXSTThis seasonUTSA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TXST 79–73 · win probability TXST 70%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 151.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TXST has more of the edges

TXST 5, UTSA 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TXSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TXST 33.9%, UTSA 30.2%. Defensive: TXST 71.6%, UTSA 61.3%
Context
Schedule so far
TXST has played the 298th-hardest schedule, UTSA the 104th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TXSTBig
TXST offense vs UTSA defense
Offense 105th of 366 against a defense 238th, on the model’s ratings
TXSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TXST 69%, UTSA 15%. Transfers in: TXST 5, UTSA 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
TXSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: TXST 50.0 and allows 52.0; UTSA 44.8 and allows 53.3
TXSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TXST 18.7%, UTSA 17.4%. Forced: TXST 18.5%, UTSA 14.7%
UTSASmall
Home court
UTSA at home. This season: UTSA 0-0 at home, TXST 0-0 away
Even
UTSA offense vs TXST defense
Offense 155th of 366 against a defense 112th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: TXST plays 68.2 a game (223rd fastest), UTSA 69.6 (142nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: TXST 34.0, UTSA 29.5. Allowed: TXST 39.0, UTSA 33.3
Even
Three-pointers
TXST hits 32.2% and allows 35.7%; UTSA hits 29.2% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 24.6% and 41.3% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TXST -6.1—
Total—151.3—
Projected score—TXST 78.7 · UTSA 72.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTXST -3.8—
1H total70.7—
1H projected scoreTXST 37.2 · UTSA 33.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas St has the better starters

Position by position: Texas St 4, UTSA 0, even 1
Texas StBetterUTSA
G M. Drone14 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 56
TXSTBig
G D. Hayes8.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 16
G Q. House TR15.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 84
TXSTBig
G J. Kelly TR8.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 44
G K. Younger TR15.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
Even
G D. Williams TR10 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 72
F D. Hall15.7 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 94
TXSTBig
G P. Turner TR7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 31
F P. Djobet TR17.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
TXSTBig
G I. Coleman TR6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50
Texas StBetterUTSA
TXST offense105th of 366 · -1.4
TXSTBig
UTSA defense238th of 366 · -6.2
TXST defense112th of 366 · -1.4
Even
UTSA offense155th of 366 · -4.7
Backcourt+2.5 · 3 players
TXSTBig
Backcourt-5.4 · 5 players
Frontcourt+7.5 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
TXSTBig
Bench-3.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestTXST betterUTSA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Texas St
Guards
M. Drone31 minQ. House31 min · TRK. Younger29 min · TRK. Gumbs28 minD. Pernell22 minC. Steger11 min · TR
Forwards
D. Hall30 minP. Djobet30 min · TRR. Jessamy27 min · TRK. GrandisonNewD. AbisogunNewK. SandersNew
Centers
R. Fields16 min
UTSA
Guards
D. Hayes31 minJ. Kelly27 min · TRD. Williams22 min · TRP. Turner20 min · TRI. Coleman19 min · TRS. Eberwein19 min · TR
Forwards
A. Smith5 min · TRC. OkpukparaNewM. BroxtonNewJ. PetersonNewK. TaylorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TXSTUTSA
Scoring
71.9 #247Points per game67.3 #329
1.06 #230Points per possession0.96 #348
68.2 #223Pace (possessions)69.6 #142
Shooting
50.0 #238Effective FG%44.8 #360
32.2 #2713-point %29.2 #351
24.6 #3643-point attempt rate41.3 #143
34.0 #211Free throw rate29.5 #320
Possessions
18.7 #309Turnover rate17.4 #231
33.9 #68Offensive rebound rate30.2 #191
12.7 #239Assists per game10.1 #357
Defense
72.5 #117Points allowed82.9 #345
1.06 #106Points allowed per possession1.20 #356
52.0 #210Opponent effective FG%53.3 #277
35.7 #293Opponent 3-point %35.1 #251
18.5 #75Turnovers forced14.7 #309
71.6 #81Defensive rebound rate61.3 #363
7.9 #41Steals per game6.3 #203
3.6 #120Blocks per game4.3 #52
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Texas St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss77–81
  • Wvs App State60–57
  • L@ Louisiana54–67
  • W@ South Alabama90–82
  • Wvs UL Monroe95–84

A week or more of rest.

UTSA

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 1-17 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Rice71–80
  • Lvs Wichita St67–84
  • Lvs East Carolina81–82
  • L@ Tulsa74–100
  • Lvs FAU52–60

A week or more of rest.