Florida A&M Rattlers at UTSA Roadrunners: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 12:00 AM ETUTSA Convocation Center · at UTSA

#192UTSAUTSA

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Florida A&M and UTSA
FAMU	This season	UTSA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTSA 79–70 · win probability UTSA 78%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FAMU has more of the edges

FAMU 5, UTSA 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

FAMU has played the 323rd-hardest schedule, UTSA the 104th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UTSABig

UTSA offense vs FAMU defense

Offense 155th of 366 against a defense 303rd, on the model’s ratings

FAMUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FAMU 30.9%, UTSA 30.2%. Defensive: FAMU 69.1%, UTSA 61.3%

FAMUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: FAMU 49.2 and allows 51.2; UTSA 44.8 and allows 53.3

UTSASmall

FAMU offense vs UTSA defense

Offense 326th of 366 against a defense 238th, on the model’s ratings

FAMUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FAMU 21.5%, UTSA 17.4%. Forced: FAMU 19.1%, UTSA 14.7%

FAMUSmall

Three-pointers

FAMU hits 32.6% and allows 34.9%; UTSA hits 29.2% and allows 35.1%. Threes are 37.7% and 41.3% of their shots

UTSASmall

Home court

UTSA at home. This season: UTSA 0-0 at home, FAMU 0-0 away

FAMUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FAMU 43%, UTSA 15%. Transfers in: FAMU 3, UTSA 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: FAMU plays 70.6 a game (92nd fastest), UTSA 69.6 (142nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: FAMU 37.4, UTSA 29.5. Allowed: FAMU 39.6, UTSA 33.3

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UTSA -9.0	—
Total	—	148.5	—
Projected score	—	FAMU 69.8 · UTSA 78.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTSA -5.2	—
1H total	69.5	—
1H projected score	FAMU 32.1 · UTSA 37.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAMU WWWWL	16-13	55%	9-7	—
UTSA WLWLW	10-18	36%	5-7	—

Venue/role: FAMU away; UTSA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAMU OUOUO	11-18	38%	13-16
UTSA UOOUU	13-15	46%	3-25

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAMU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
UTSA	1-9 10%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Florida A&M

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ USA	No recent meeting
Nov 30	@ KENN	L72–92LU
Dec 4	vs NORF	No recent meeting

UTSA

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs AF	No recent meeting
Nov 26	vs ARMY	L75–78LU
Nov 29	@ SIUE	L60–77LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Florida A&M

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-18

38% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

L L L L L W L L L L W W W W W L L L L W L W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1355%

L L L W W W L W L W W W W W L L L L L W L W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1838%

O U U U O U U U O O U O U U U U U O U O U O U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@USF	L 67-102	+25.5	L −9.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 8	vsKENN	L 72-92	+11.5	L −8.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 11	@UCF	L 60-97	+23.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 157
Nov 17	@UGA	L 57-87	+40.5	W +10.5	170.5	U 144
Dec 2	@JAX	L 82-85	+10.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 167
Dec 17	vsJAX	W 72-65	+3.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 137
Dec 19	@TAR	L 54-78	+14.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 132
Dec 21	@TCU	L 56-80	+29.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 136
Dec 28	@GT	L 65-89	+19.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 3	@BCU	L 83-87	+7.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsSOU	W 67-59	+4.5	W +12.5	153.5	U 126
Jan 12	vsGRAM	W 91-84	+1.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 175
Jan 17	@UAPB	W 71-67	+2.5	W +6.5	149.5	U 138
Jan 19	@MVSU	W 62-48	-11.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 110
Jan 24	vsALCN	W 66-58	-8.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 124
Jan 26	vsJKST	L 65-66	-7.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 131
Jan 31	@AAMU	L 65-72	+3.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 2	@ALST	L 66-79	+3.5	L −9.5	139.5	O 145
Feb 7	vsTXSO	L 57-62	-1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 119
Feb 9	vsPV	W 100-96	-3.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 196
Feb 14	@JKST	L 60-80	-2.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 16	@ALCN	W 86-78	-2.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 164
Feb 19	vsAAMU	L 61-63	-1.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 124
Feb 21	vsALST	W 76-63	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 139
Feb 26	@SOU	W 82-71	+8.5	W +19.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 28	@GRAM	W 66-59	+4.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 5	vsBCU	W 81-77	+2.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 158
Mar 11	vsJKST	W 70-60	-6.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 130
Mar 13	vsSOU	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USF

L 67-102

−9.5

KENN

L 72-92

−8.5

UCF

L 60-97

−13.5

UGA

L 57-87

+10.5

JAX

L 82-85

+7.5

JAX

W 72-65

+10.5

TAR

L 54-78

−9.5

TCU

L 56-80

+5.5

L 65-89

−4.5

BCU

L 83-87

+3.5

SOU

W 67-59

+12.5

GRAM

W 91-84

+8.5

UAPB

W 71-67

+6.5

MVSU

W 62-48

+2.5

ALCN

W 66-58

−0.5

JKST

L 65-66

−8.5

AAMU

L 65-72

−3.5

ALST

L 66-79

−9.5

TXSO

L 57-62

−6.5

W 100-96

+0.5

JKST

L 60-80

−22.5

ALCN

W 86-78

+5.5

AAMU

L 61-63

−3.5

ALST

W 76-63

+14.5

SOU

W 82-71

+19.5

GRAM

W 66-59

+11.5

BCU

W 81-77

+6.5

JKST

W 70-60

+3.5

SOU

L 70-73

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USF

L 67-102

+15.5

KENN

L 72-92

−2.5

UCF

L 60-97

−12.5

UGA

L 57-87

−26.5

JAX

L 82-85

+28.5

JAX

W 72-65

−2.5

TAR

L 54-78

−13.5

TCU

L 56-80

−6.5

L 65-89

+7.5

BCU

L 83-87

+24.5

SOU

W 67-59

−27.5

GRAM

W 91-84

+33.5

UAPB

W 71-67

−11.5

MVSU

W 62-48

−29.5

ALCN

W 66-58

−17.5

JKST

L 65-66

−19.5

AAMU

L 65-72

−1.5

ALST

L 66-79

+5.5

TXSO

L 57-62

−27.5

W 100-96

+46.5

JKST

L 60-80

−4.5

ALCN

W 86-78

+26.5

AAMU

L 61-63

−15.5

ALST

W 76-63

−5.5

SOU

W 82-71

+5.5

GRAM

W 66-59

−15.5

BCU

W 81-77

+12.5

JKST

W 70-60

−11.5

SOU

L 70-73

+1.5

over 11under 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UTSA

28 games played

Straight up

3-25

11% wins

Against the spread

10-18

36% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-2511%

L L W L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1836%

L L W L W L L L L W L L L L L L L W W W L L W W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1546%

U O O U U U U U O U O U U U O O O U O O U O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIUE	L 60-77	-6.5	L −23.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 12	@TXST	L 69-80	+2.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 15	@DEN	W 84-79	+4.5	W +9.5	148.5	O 163
Nov 24	vsACU	L 50-61	+2.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 111
Nov 25	vsGASO	W 77-64	+3.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 30	vsUSA	L 58-82	+1.5	L −22.5	141.5	U 140
Dec 7	@ALA	L 55-97	+33.5	L −8.5	171.5	U 152
Dec 13	@COLO	L 64-88	+22.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 152
Dec 17	@USC	L 70-97	+25.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 167
Dec 22	vsSEA	L 68-71	+10.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 31	@FAU	L 70-110	+16.5	L −23.5	158.5	O 180
Jan 3	@TEM	L 57-76	+10.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 133
Jan 7	vsCLT	L 58-74	+6.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 132
Jan 10	vsTULN	L 52-85	+7.5	L −25.5	147.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsRICE	L 73-89	+6.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 162
Jan 18	@MEM	L 69-95	+20.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 164
Jan 21	@UNT	L 62-81	+15.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 143
Jan 24	vsTEM	L 64-70	+10.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 134
Jan 28	vsUAB	L 73-83	+12.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 156
Feb 4	@USF	L 88-109	+23.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 197
Feb 7	vsUNT	L 58-81	+10.5	L −12.5	141.5	U 139
Feb 11	@ECU	L 72-88	+10.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 15	@CLT	W 88-79	+13.5	W +22.5	148.5	O 167
Feb 18	vsFAU	L 52-60	+11.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 112
Feb 22	@TLSA	L 74-100	+21.5	L −4.5	159.5	O 174
Feb 25	vsECU	L 81-82	+4.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 163
Mar 1	vsWICH	L 67-84	+15.5	L −1.5	151.5	U 151
Mar 8	@RICE	L 71-80	+11.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIUE

L 60-77

−23.5

TXST

L 69-80

−8.5

DEN

W 84-79

+9.5

ACU

L 50-61

−8.5

GASO

W 77-64

+16.5

USA

L 58-82

−22.5

ALA

L 55-97

−8.5

COLO

L 64-88

−1.5

USC

L 70-97

−1.5

SEA

L 68-71

+7.5

FAU

L 70-110

−23.5

TEM

L 57-76

−8.5

CLT

L 58-74

−9.5

TULN

L 52-85

−25.5

RICE

L 73-89

−9.5

MEM

L 69-95

−5.5

UNT

L 62-81

−3.5

TEM

L 64-70

+4.5

UAB

L 73-83

+2.5

USF

L 88-109

+2.5

UNT

L 58-81

−12.5

ECU

L 72-88

−5.5

CLT

W 88-79

+22.5

FAU

L 52-60

+3.5

TLSA

L 74-100

−4.5

ECU

L 81-82

+3.5

WICH

L 67-84

−1.5

RICE

L 71-80

+2.5

covered 10didn’t cover 18avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIUE

L 60-77

−16.5

TXST

L 69-80

+1.5

DEN

W 84-79

+14.5

ACU

L 50-61

−33.5

GASO

W 77-64

−19.5

USA

L 58-82

−1.5

ALA

L 55-97

−19.5

COLO

L 64-88

−2.5

USC

L 70-97

+9.5

SEA

L 68-71

−9.5

FAU

L 70-110

+21.5

TEM

L 57-76

−16.5

CLT

L 58-74

−13.5

TULN

L 52-85

−10.5

RICE

L 73-89

+17.5

MEM

L 69-95

+16.5

UNT

L 62-81

+4.5

TEM

L 64-70

−11.5

UAB

L 73-83

+0.5

USF

L 88-109

+32.5

UNT

L 58-81

−2.5

ECU

L 72-88

+9.5

CLT

W 88-79

+18.5

FAU

L 52-60

−45.5

TLSA

L 74-100

+14.5

ECU

L 81-82

+9.5

WICH

L 67-84

−0.5

RICE

L 71-80

−0.5

over 13under 15avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Florida A&M 1, UTSA 1, even 3

Florida A&MBetterUTSA

G J. Kempson TR10.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 33

FAMUSmall

G D. Hayes8.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 16

G J. Sanders12 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 42

Even

G J. Kelly TR8.3 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 44

G A. Baker9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

UTSABig

G D. Williams TR10 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 72

G R. Martino6.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

Even

G P. Turner TR7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 31

F D. Williford TR2.2 pts · 0.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G I. Coleman TR6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 50

Florida A&MBetterUTSA

FAMU offense326th of 366 · -10.6

UTSASmall

UTSA defense238th of 366 · -6.2

FAMU defense303rd of 366 · -7.8

UTSABig

UTSA offense155th of 366 · -4.7

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt-5.4 · 5 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

FAMUBig

Bench-3.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestFAMU betterUTSA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Florida A&M

Guards

J. Kempson32 min · TRJ. Sanders32 minA. Baker27 minR. Martino22 minC. DavisNewA. WilliamsNew

Forwards

D. Williford6 min · TRT. Onuoha5 minM. StijovicNewJ. LomickaNewB. NdourNew

Centers

A. Mbaye1 min · TRJ. MokwezaNew

UTSA

Guards

D. Hayes31 minJ. Kelly27 min · TRD. Williams22 min · TRP. Turner20 min · TRI. Coleman19 min · TRS. Eberwein19 min · TR

Forwards

A. Smith5 min · TRC. OkpukparaNewM. BroxtonNewJ. PetersonNewK. TaylorNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FAMU70.0 #285

UTSA67.3 #329

Points per possession

FAMU0.99 #334

UTSA0.96 #348

Pace (possessions)

FAMU70.6 #92

UTSA69.6 #142

Shooting

Effective FG%

FAMU49.2 #283

UTSA44.8 #360

3-point %

FAMU32.6 #249

UTSA29.2 #351

3-point attempt rate

FAMU37.7 #219

UTSA41.3 #143

Free throw rate

FAMU37.4 #116

UTSA29.5 #320

Possessions

Turnover rate

FAMU21.5 #359

UTSA17.4 #231

Offensive rebound rate

FAMU30.9 #168

UTSA30.2 #191

Assists per game

FAMU12.7 #236

UTSA10.1 #357

Defense

Points allowed

FAMU75.1 #192

UTSA82.9 #345

Points allowed per possession

FAMU1.06 #114

UTSA1.20 #356

Opponent effective FG%

FAMU51.2 #171

UTSA53.3 #277

Opponent 3-point %

FAMU34.9 #243

UTSA35.1 #251

Turnovers forced

FAMU19.1 #43

UTSA14.7 #309

Defensive rebound rate

FAMU69.1 #198

UTSA61.3 #363

Steals per game

FAMU8.1 #35

UTSA6.3 #203

Blocks per game

FAMU3.0 #220

UTSA4.3 #52

FAMU		UTSA
Scoring
70.0 #285	Points per game	67.3 #329
0.99 #334	Points per possession	0.96 #348
70.6 #92	Pace (possessions)	69.6 #142
Shooting
49.2 #283	Effective FG%	44.8 #360
32.6 #249	3-point %	29.2 #351
37.7 #219	3-point attempt rate	41.3 #143
37.4 #116	Free throw rate	29.5 #320
Possessions
21.5 #359	Turnover rate	17.4 #231
30.9 #168	Offensive rebound rate	30.2 #191
12.7 #236	Assists per game	10.1 #357
Defense
75.1 #192	Points allowed	82.9 #345
1.06 #114	Points allowed per possession	1.20 #356
51.2 #171	Opponent effective FG%	53.3 #277
34.9 #243	Opponent 3-point %	35.1 #251
19.1 #43	Turnovers forced	14.7 #309
69.1 #198	Defensive rebound rate	61.3 #363
8.1 #35	Steals per game	6.3 #203
3.0 #220	Blocks per game	4.3 #52

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Florida A&M

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern70–73
Wvs Jackson St70–60
Wvs Bethune81–77
W@ Grambling66–59
W@ Southern82–71

A week or more of rest.

UTSA

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 1-17 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Rice71–80
Lvs Wichita St67–84
Lvs East Carolina81–82
L@ Tulsa74–100
Lvs FAU52–60

A week or more of rest.

Florida A&M Rattlers at UTSA Roadrunners

What could decide it: FAMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Florida A&M

UTSA

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Florida A&M

UTSA