UTSA Roadrunners at Denver Pioneers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 2:00 PM ETHamilton Gymnasium · at Denver

#192UTSAUTSA84▲ winner

Final

#263DENDenver79final

Closing lineDEN -4.5✓ UTSA covered by 9.5

Closing total148.5Over by 14.5

Season records: UTSA and Denver
UTSA	This season	DEN
0-2	Record	1-2
0-2	ATS	3-0
1-1	O/U	3-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UTSA 78–79 DEN · ✗ DEN (55%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UTSA	37	47	84
DEN	28	51	79

1st half: UTSA 37, DEN 28 (UTSA by 9). The model had DEN by 0.6 and a total of 73.3 (actual 65).

Team stats

UTSA		DEN
29-56 52%	Field goals	27-60 45%
11-23 48%	3-pointers	13-32 41%
15-20 75%	Free throws	12-14 86%
37 11 off	Rebounds	27 8 off
11	Assists	14
2	Steals	4
2	Blocks	4
10	Turnovers	7
16	Fouls	16
32	Points in paint	22
6	Fast-break points	9

Players

UTSA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jamir Simpson G	39	20	3	0	7-13	4-8
Dorian Hayes G	37	9	2	5	3-8	3-6
Matheo Coffi F	30	5	9	1	2-2	1-1
Austin Nunez G	22	16	2	2	5-11	2-6
Kaidon Rayfield F	17	6	3	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Baboucarr Njie F	31	23	12	0	9-17	0-1
Brent Moss G	12	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Pierce Spencer G	10	2	1	3	0-1	0-0
Mo Njie C	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: LJ Brown, Jackson Fazande, Macaleab Rich, Vasean Allette, Stanley Borden, Daniel Akitoby

DEN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Carson Johnson G	39	29	5	4	9-20	4-11
Jeremiah Burke F	36	23	4	2	8-15	4-8
Logan Kinsey F	31	5	5	3	2-5	1-1
Julius Rollins G	31	8	5	2	2-7	2-6
Gabe Oldham F	17	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Bench
Shaun Wysocki F	25	6	2	0	3-7	0-2
Zane Nelson G	15	8	2	2	3-5	2-3
Didier Maleng F	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Josh Lee, Loch Cunningham, Ian Motta, Corleone Dandridge, Trajan Thompson, Kaden Holdbrook, Devin Carney

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DEN -4.5	DEN -1.3	UTSA +3.2	W UTSA covered
Total	148.5	156.6	Over 8.1	W Over
Projected score	—	UTSA 77.6 · DEN 79

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DEN -0.6	UTSA -9.0
1H total	73.3	65
1H projected score	UTSA 36.4 · DEN 37	UTSA 37 · DEN 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
DEN WWW	3-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: UTSA away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA UO	1-1	50%	0-2
DEN OOO	3-0	100%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSAlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%
DENlast 3	1-2 33%	3-0 100%	3-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UTSA 1–0 DENUTSA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · UTSA 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2021-22	DEN 64 @ UTSA 78	UTSA -8.5	UTSA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UTSA

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −16 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg −7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIUE	L 60-77	-6.5	L −23.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 12	@TXST	L 69-80	+2.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIUE

L 60-77

−23.5

TXST

L 69-80

−8.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −16 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIUE

L 60-77

−16.5

TXST

L 69-80

+1.5

over 1under 1avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Denver

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SEA	L 73-84	+13.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 157
Nov 6	@WASH	L 70-84	+27.5	W +13.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 9	@MTST	W 75-73	+7.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SEA

L 73-84

+2.5

WASH

L 70-84

+13.5

MTST

W 75-73

+9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SEA

L 73-84

+20.5

WASH

L 70-84

+0.5

MTST

W 75-73

+1.5

over 3under 0avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UTSA Roadrunners at Denver Pioneers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UTSA

Denver

UTSA

Denver