UTSA Roadrunners vs Georgia Southern Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 9:00 PM ETJohn Hurst Adams Gymnasium · Neutral site

#192UTSAUTSA77▲ winner

Final

Closing lineGASO -3.5✓ UTSA covered by 16.5

Closing total160.5Under by 19.5

Season records: UTSA and GA Southern
UTSA	This season	GASO
1-3	Record	2-4
1-3	ATS	3-3
2-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UTSA 80–80 GASO · ✓ GASO (50%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UTSA	29	48	77
GASO	33	31	64

1st half: UTSA 29, GASO 33 (GASO by 4). The model had UTSA by 0.2 and a total of 74.5 (actual 62).

Team stats

UTSA		GASO
23-60 38%	Field goals	17-56 30%
6-23 26%	3-pointers	8-34 24%
25-37 68%	Free throws	22-38 58%
47 15 off	Rebounds	40 12 off
5	Assists	7
6	Steals	7
5	Blocks	3
10	Turnovers	12
26	Fouls	26
30	Points in paint	18
14	Fast-break points	8

Players

UTSA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jamir Simpson G	36	22	7	0	5-14	2-6
Austin Nunez G	24	5	2	0	1-6	0-3
Dorian Hayes G	20	4	2	1	1-7	1-6
Kaidon Rayfield F	15	0	5	0	0-1	0-0
Matheo Coffi F	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Brent Moss G	33	19	8	0	7-15	3-7
Baboucarr Njie F	26	7	4	3	1-6	0-1
Daniel Akitoby F	21	9	7	1	4-5	0-0
Macaleab Rich G	17	11	8	0	4-5	0-0
Mo Njie C	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Pierce Spencer, Stanley Borden, LJ Brown, Jackson Fazande, Vasean Allette

GASO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Alden Applewhite F	34	18	3	1	5-10	2-6
Spudd Webb G	32	14	6	2	4-10	0-3
Tyren Moore G	31	16	5	0	5-12	4-10
Shainen Carter F	23	0	8	0	0-2	0-0
Jefferson Koulibaly G	23	4	4	3	1-4	1-3
Bench
Nakavieon White F	21	9	2	0	1-7	0-4
Khayri Dunn G	12	0	2	0	0-3	0-2
Tsvet Sotirov F	11	0	1	1	0-3	0-3
Andres Burney F	7	0	4	0	0-1	0-0
Dwayne Williams Jr. G	6	3	1	0	1-4	1-3

Did not play: Pavle Ridesic, Sean Van Dorn Jr., Cullen Schreiner, Amare Neal, Cade Lomas, Dallas Gardner, Jayden Williams

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GASO -3.5	UTSA -0.1	UTSA +3.6	W UTSA covered
Total	160.5	159.0	Under 1.5	W Under
Projected score	—	UTSA 79.5 · GASO 79.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTSA -0.2	GASO -4.0
1H total	74.5	62
1H projected score	UTSA 37.3 · GASO 37.1	UTSA 29 · GASO 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UTSA LLWL	1-3	25%	0-1	1-2
GASO LWWLL	3-3	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: UTSA neutral site, as underdog; GASO neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA UOOU	2-2	50%	1-3
GASO OOUUU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSAlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%
GASOlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UTSA

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −7.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIUE	L 60-77	-6.5	L −23.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 12	@TXST	L 69-80	+2.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 15	@DEN	W 84-79	+4.5	W +9.5	148.5	O 163
Nov 24	vsACU	L 50-61	+2.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 111

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIUE

L 60-77

−23.5

TXST

L 69-80

−8.5

DEN

W 84-79

+9.5

ACU

L 50-61

−8.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIUE

L 60-77

−16.5

TXST

L 69-80

+1.5

DEN

W 84-79

+14.5

ACU

L 50-61

−33.5

over 2under 2avg −8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

GA Southern

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ECU	L 89-92	+5.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	vsUNCA	W 93-90	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	@FGCU	W 95-94	+3.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 18	@GT	L 66-68	+10.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 21	@FSU	L 72-98	+18.5	L −7.5	175.5	U 170
Nov 24	vsYSU	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+2.5

UNCA

W 93-90

−2.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+4.5

L 66-68

+8.5

FSU

L 72-98

−7.5

YSU

L 61-67

−4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+29.5

UNCA

W 93-90

+20.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+25.5

L 66-68

−30.5

FSU

L 72-98

−5.5

YSU

L 61-67

−35.5

over 3under 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UTSA vs GA Southern

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UTSA

GA Southern

UTSA

GA Southern