Georgia Southern Eagles at Florida State Seminoles: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 6:00 PM ETTucker Center · at Florida St

Final

#81FSUFlorida St98▲ winner

Closing lineFSU -18.5✓ FSU covered by 7.5

Closing total175.5Under by 5.5

Season records: GA Southern and Florida St
GASO	This season	FSU
2-2	Record	3-1
3-1	ATS	3-1
3-1	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GASO 73–94 FSU · ✓ FSU (96%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GASO	29	43	72
FSU	40	58	98

1st half: GASO 29, FSU 40 (FSU by 11). The model had FSU by 12.3 and a total of 78.2 (actual 69).

Team stats

GASO		FSU
21-63 33%	Field goals	31-71 44%
9-33 27%	3-pointers	17-49 35%
21-24 88%	Free throws	19-29 66%
39 9 off	Rebounds	46 12 off
11	Assists	23
5	Steals	11
2	Blocks	4
17	Turnovers	11
24	Fouls	19
20	Points in paint	28
8	Fast-break points	18

Players

GASO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyren Moore G	25	8	1	3	3-7	2-6
Alden Applewhite F	24	4	6	1	1-8	0-4
Spudd Webb G	23	6	3	1	2-7	0-2
Shainen Carter F	22	14	3	0	3-3	0-0
Dwayne Williams Jr. G	13	6	2	0	2-6	2-6
Bench
Nakavieon White F	23	13	7	3	3-8	2-3
Tsvet Sotirov F	21	5	9	1	2-8	1-6
Khayri Dunn G	21	5	1	1	2-6	1-4
Jefferson Koulibaly G	20	6	3	0	2-8	0-1
Jayden Williams G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Sean Van Dorn Jr. G	4	5	0	1	1-2	1-1

Did not play: Dallas Gardner, Cade Lomas, Amare Neal, Cullen Schreiner, Andres Burney, Pavle Ridesic

FSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Lajae Jones G	31	36	0	2	10-21	10-21
Kobe MaGee G	27	12	5	2	4-8	1-5
Chauncey Wiggins F	26	11	10	3	4-10	1-5
Robert McCray V G	21	8	3	7	3-6	1-2
Alex Steen F	20	9	6	1	2-3	0-0
Bench
Martin Somerville G	21	3	7	1	1-4	1-4
Cam Miles G	16	11	2	5	4-10	2-7
Thomas Bassong F	13	3	3	1	1-3	1-3
AJ Swinton F	13	4	4	1	2-5	0-1
Alier Maluk F	7	1	0	0	0-0	0-0
Shah Muhammad F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Jalen Crawford G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Max Garcia-Plata, Xavier Osceola

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FSU -18.5	FSU -20.6	FSU +2.1	W FSU covered
Total	175.5	167.1	Under 8.4	W Under
Projected score	—	GASO 73.2 · FSU 93.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FSU -12.3	FSU -11.0
1H total	78.2	69
1H projected score	GASO 33 · FSU 45.3	GASO 29 · FSU 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WLWW	3-1	75%	3-0	3-0
FSU WWWL	3-1	75%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; FSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO OOOU	3-1	75%	2-2
FSU OUUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASOlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	3-1 75%
FSUlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

GA Southern

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +11.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ECU	L 89-92	+5.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	vsUNCA	W 93-90	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	@FGCU	W 95-94	+3.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 18	@GT	L 66-68	+10.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+2.5

UNCA

W 93-90

−2.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+4.5

L 66-68

+8.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+29.5

UNCA

W 93-90

+20.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+25.5

L 66-68

−30.5

over 3under 1avg +11.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Florida St

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +6.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsALCN	W 108-76	-27.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 7	vsALST	W 101-64	-24.5	W +12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@FLA	L 76-78	+17.5	W +15.5	180.5	U 154
Nov 18	vsUTM	W 87-73	-19.5	L −5.5	165.5	U 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ALCN

W 108-76

+4.5

ALST

W 101-64

+12.5

FLA

L 76-78

+15.5

UTM

W 87-73

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ALCN

W 108-76

+27.5

ALST

W 101-64

−1.5

FLA

L 76-78

−26.5

UTM

W 87-73

−5.5

over 1under 3avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Florida State Seminoles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

GA Southern

Florida St

GA Southern

Florida St