Lafayette Leopards at Stonehill Skyhawks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 21, 6:00 PM ETMerkert Gymnasium · at Stonehill

#310LAFLafayette70final

Final

#349STOStonehill74▲ winner

Closing lineLAF -1.5✓ STO covered by 5.5

Closing total141.5Over by 2.5

Season records: Lafayette and Stonehill
LAF	This season	STO
0-4	Record	0-5
2-2	ATS	3-2
4-0	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LAF 71–72 STO · ✓ STO (53%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LAF	25	45	70
STO	34	40	74

1st half: LAF 25, STO 34 (STO by 9). The model had STO by 0.4 and a total of 66.8 (actual 59).

Team stats

LAF		STO
22-62 35%	Field goals	29-60 48%
7-20 35%	3-pointers	6-18 33%
19-29 66%	Free throws	10-17 59%
39 16 off	Rebounds	38 12 off
9	Assists	8
11	Steals	4
3	Blocks	9
12	Turnovers	15
19	Fouls	21
26	Points in paint	38
16	Fast-break points	13

Players

LAF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Andrew Phillips G	37	22	10	0	7-19	3-8
Caleb Williams G	35	16	6	1	3-11	2-5
Mark Butler G	35	13	3	3	5-12	0-0
Christian Humphrey-Rembert F	30	8	5	1	3-5	2-4
Luke Bevilacqua F	24	5	2	2	2-3	0-0
Bench
Ryan Pettit G	26	4	4	2	1-4	0-0
Folabomi Fayemi G	11	2	2	0	1-7	0-3
Misha Bednostin C	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Luke Azzinaro, Ashton Wallace, KaiMani Murdock, Beckett Currie, Shareef Jackson, TJ Berger, Joshua Wyche, Luka Savicevic, Chris Rubayo, Malik Rasul, Justin Vander Baan

STO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Hermann Koffi G	32	4	2	0	2-7	0-4
Ridvan Tutic F	28	16	7	2	7-9	0-0
Chas Stinson G	26	10	9	0	5-11	0-1
Raymond Espinal-Guzman F	25	10	7	0	4-9	1-1
Rex Sunderland G	21	3	2	0	1-2	1-1
Bench
Davante Hackett G	31	23	5	1	6-13	4-10
Trenton Ruth G	19	6	0	5	3-5	0-1
Pearse McGuinn F	12	2	3	0	1-4	0-0
Anthony Holden G	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Colin Byrne, Cory Lovell, Charlie Diamantis, Norbu Jenpa, Eino Montin, Ethan Meuser, Will Batchelder

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LAF -1.5	STO -1.0	STO +2.5	W STO covered
Total	141.5	142.6	Over 1.1	W Over
Projected score	—	LAF 70.8 · STO 71.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STO -0.4	STO -9.0
1H total	66.8	59
1H projected score	LAF 33.2 · STO 33.6	LAF 25 · STO 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAF WLLW	2-2	50%	2-1	—
STO WLWLW	3-2	60%	—	3-2

Venue/role: LAF away, as favorite; STO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAF OOOO	4-0	100%	0-4
STO UUOUO	2-3	40%	0-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAFlast 4	0-4 0%	2-2 50%	4-0 100%
STOlast 5	0-5 0%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LAF 0–1 STOSTO leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LAF 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 29, 2024-25	STO 70 @ LAF 65	LAF -4.5	STO W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lafayette

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +11.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@WVU	L 59-81	+24.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+4.5

over 4under 0avg +11.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Stonehill

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@DEP	L 64-72	+22.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 11	@URI	L 57-80	+16.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 137
Nov 14	@FAIR	L 71-73	+6.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 144
Nov 15	vsL-MD	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 137
Nov 17	@ISU	L 57-96	+40.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEP

L 64-72

+14.5

URI

L 57-80

−6.5

FAIR

L 71-73

+4.5

L-MD

L 63-74

−4.5

ISU

L 57-96

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEP

L 64-72

−11.5

URI

L 57-80

−14.5

FAIR

L 71-73

+0.5

L-MD

L 63-74

−1.5

ISU

L 57-96

+6.5

over 2under 3avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lafayette Leopards at Stonehill Skyhawks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Lafayette

Stonehill

Lafayette

Stonehill