South Alabama Jaguars at UTSA Roadrunners: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 30, 2:00 PM ETUTSA Convocation Center · at UTSA

Final

#192UTSAUTSA58final

Closing lineUSA -1.5✓ USA covered by 22.5

Closing total141.5Under by 1.5

Season records: South Alabama and UTSA
USA	This season	UTSA
5-1	Record	2-3
2-4	ATS	2-3
4-2	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: USA 72–71 UTSA · ✓ USA (51%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
USA	44	38	82
UTSA	31	27	58

1st half: USA 44, UTSA 31 (USA by 13). The model had USA by 0.4 and a total of 67.1 (actual 75).

Team stats

USA		UTSA
29-65 45%	Field goals	21-79 27%
8-22 36%	3-pointers	14-56 25%
16-19 84%	Free throws	2-2 100%
53 15 off	Rebounds	39 18 off
16	Assists	16
6	Steals	8
4	Blocks	9
11	Turnovers	10
9	Fouls	15
40	Points in paint	12
19	Fast-break points	13

Players

USA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Randy Brady F	29	7	6	1	3-5	1-2
Adam Olsen F	29	20	5	2	6-13	5-11
Peyton Law F	27	9	8	0	3-4	0-0
Chaze Harris G	25	16	8	9	6-12	0-0
Jayden Cooper G	24	11	4	1	5-13	1-4
Bench
Brian Hawthorne G	21	8	7	3	3-5	0-0
Hantz Louis-Jeune G	15	5	3	0	1-6	1-3
Stephen Williams F	13	6	4	0	2-4	0-0
JJ Wheat G	10	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
John Broom G	7	0	5	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Maxwell Land, Samuel Shoptaw, Desmond Williams

UTSA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dorian Hayes G	33	15	2	6	5-20	5-20
Jamir Simpson G	32	17	5	3	6-16	5-12
Austin Nunez G	29	9	1	3	3-13	3-9
Kaidon Rayfield F	25	4	9	0	2-6	0-1
Matheo Coffi F	20	2	10	1	1-4	0-1
Bench
Brent Moss G	23	5	6	2	2-15	1-12
Macaleab Rich G	15	6	2	0	2-5	0-1
Baboucarr Njie F	15	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Mo Njie C	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Daniel Akitoby F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jackson Fazande, Vasean Allette, Stanley Borden, Pierce Spencer, LJ Brown

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USA -1.5	USA -0.4	UTSA +1.1	L USA covered
Total	141.5	143.2	Over 1.7	L Under
Projected score	—	USA 71.8 · UTSA 71.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USA -0.4	USA -13.0
1H total	67.1	75
1H projected score	USA 33.7 · UTSA 33.4	USA 44 · UTSA 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LLLWL	2-4	33%	2-1	0-3
UTSA LLWLW	2-3	40%	0-1	2-2

Venue/role: USA away, as favorite; UTSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OUOOO	4-2	67%	5-1
UTSA UOOUU	2-3	40%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USAlast 6	5-1 83%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%
UTSAlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

South Alabama

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TOL	W 76-74	+2.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 6	vsALCN	W 76-70	-18.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 13	vsCMU	W 66-64	-5.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsCOPP	W 72-62	-18.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 134
Nov 19	@JXST	W 71-65	+2.5	W +8.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 21	@UAB	L 72-80	+7.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOL

W 76-74

+4.5

ALCN

W 76-70

−12.5

CMU

W 66-64

−3.5

COPP

W 72-62

−8.5

JXST

W 71-65

+8.5

UAB

L 72-80

−0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOL

W 76-74

−0.5

ALCN

W 76-70

+4.5

CMU

W 66-64

−12.5

COPP

W 72-62

+0.5

JXST

W 71-65

+0.5

UAB

L 72-80

+2.5

over 4under 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

UTSA

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −10.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIUE	L 60-77	-6.5	L −23.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 12	@TXST	L 69-80	+2.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 15	@DEN	W 84-79	+4.5	W +9.5	148.5	O 163
Nov 24	vsACU	L 50-61	+2.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 111
Nov 25	vsGASO	W 77-64	+3.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIUE

L 60-77

−23.5

TXST

L 69-80

−8.5

DEN

W 84-79

+9.5

ACU

L 50-61

−8.5

GASO

W 77-64

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIUE

L 60-77

−16.5

TXST

L 69-80

+1.5

DEN

W 84-79

+14.5

ACU

L 50-61

−33.5

GASO

W 77-64

−19.5

over 2under 3avg −10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Alabama Jaguars at UTSA Roadrunners

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

South Alabama

UTSA

South Alabama

UTSA