Tennessee State Tigers at Chattanooga Mocs: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 30, 2:00 PM ETMcKenzie Arena · at Chattanooga

#245TNSTTennessee St70▲ winner

Final

Closing lineUTC -8.5✓ TNST covered by 14.5

Closing total155.5Under by 21.5

Season records: Tennessee St and Chattanooga
TNST	This season	UTC
1-3	Record	2-3
3-1	ATS	2-3
2-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TNST 76–81 UTC · ✗ UTC (68%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TNST	42	28	70
UTC	33	31	64

1st half: TNST 42, UTC 33 (TNST by 9). The model had UTC by 3.0 and a total of 73.3 (actual 75).

Team stats

TNST		UTC
25-59 42%	Field goals	21-58 36%
6-18 33%	3-pointers	10-35 29%
14-15 93%	Free throws	12-14 86%
39 9 off	Rebounds	31 6 off
12	Assists	13
5	Steals	5
2	Blocks	0
8	Turnovers	7
13	Fouls	15
32	Points in paint	22
8	Fast-break points	6

Players

TNST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Travis Harper II G	33	17	6	1	6-10	3-5
Dante Harris G	33	15	4	1	6-11	1-2
Aaron Nkrumah G	33	17	3	5	6-18	2-8
Jalen Pitre F	26	8	8	1	2-4	0-0
Carlous Williams F	25	3	4	1	1-4	0-1
Bench
Antoine Lorick III F	15	6	5	1	2-5	0-0
Kavien Jones F	14	2	5	0	1-1	0-0
Khalil London G	11	2	1	2	1-5	0-1
Jabrion Spikes G	10	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jean Lafleur, Jayden Jones, Damon Howard Jr., Ogien Ayo, Maddux Bodenhamer, JC Brooks, Alex Garcia

UTC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sebastian Hartmann F	32	9	8	0	2-8	1-5
Teddy Washington Jr. G	32	8	5	1	3-9	0-3
Jordan Frison G	30	3	4	4	1-6	0-3
Billy Smith G	29	11	3	2	4-11	3-10
Makai Richards C	12	2	3	2	0-3	0-0
Bench
Brennan Watkins G	20	9	1	3	3-6	3-6
Tate Darner G	20	16	4	0	6-10	3-5
Parker Robison G	12	2	1	1	1-1	0-0
Sean Cusano G	8	3	1	0	1-2	0-1
Jikari Johnson G	5	1	1	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Zach Bleshoy, Josh Bowman, Latif Diouf, Liam Vitters, Houston Holland, Ryan Lopez, Collin Mulholland

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UTC -8.5	UTC -5.3	TNST +3.2	W TNST covered
Total	155.5	156.6	Over 1.1	L Under
Projected score	—	TNST 75.7 · UTC 81

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UTC -3.0	TNST -9.0
1H total	73.3	75
1H projected score	TNST 35.1 · UTC 38.2	TNST 42 · UTC 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TNST WLWW	3-1	75%	3-1	3-1
UTC LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: TNST away, as underdog; UTC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TNST OOUU	2-2	50%	1-3
UTC OOOUU	3-2	60%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TNSTlast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
UTClast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TNST 0–1 UTCUTC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TNST 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 25, 2024-25	TNST 78 @ UTC 85	UTC -10.5	TNST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tennessee St

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@BEL	L 79-87	+13.5	W +5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 16	@WKU	L 82-95	+12.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 20	@TENN	L 60-89	+31.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 25	@UNCA	W 75-73	+5.5	W +7.5	164.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BEL

L 79-87

+5.5

WKU

L 82-95

−0.5

TENN

L 60-89

+2.5

UNCA

W 75-73

+7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BEL

L 79-87

+7.5

WKU

L 82-95

+9.5

TENN

L 60-89

−8.5

UNCA

W 75-73

−16.5

over 2under 2avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Chattanooga

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −8.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SMC	L 66-87	+15.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 8	@UNLV	L 69-101	+7.5	L −24.5	155.5	O 170
Nov 15	@FGCU	L 73-91	-1.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 164
Nov 19	@SCST	W 78-66	-11.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 22	vsUNA	W 71-57	-9.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 66-87

−5.5

UNLV

L 69-101

−24.5

FGCU

L 73-91

−19.5

SCST

W 78-66

+0.5

UNA

W 71-57

+4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −8.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 66-87

+7.5

UNLV

L 69-101

+14.5

FGCU

L 73-91

+11.5

SCST

W 78-66

−10.5

UNA

W 71-57

−21.5

over 3under 2avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tennessee St @ Chattanooga

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Tennessee St

Chattanooga

Tennessee St

Chattanooga