Florida A&M Rattlers vs Norfolk State Spartans: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 4, 8:30 PM ETCareFirst Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Florida A&M and Norfolk St
FAMU	This season	NORF
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAMU 73–72 · win probability FAMU 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

FAMU 1, NORF 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NORFBig

Three-pointers

FAMU hits 32.6% and allows 34.9%; NORF hits 34.2% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 37.7% and 30.6% of their shots

FAMUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: FAMU 43%, NORF 8%. Transfers in: FAMU 3, NORF 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: FAMU plays 70.6 a game (92nd fastest), NORF 69.1 (172nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: FAMU 37.4, NORF 43.5. Allowed: FAMU 39.6, NORF 45.3

Even

FAMU offense vs NORF defense

Offense 326th of 366 against a defense 301st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

FAMU has played the 323rd-hardest schedule, NORF the 343rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: FAMU 21.5%, NORF 18.7%. Forced: FAMU 19.1%, NORF 18.8%

Even

NORF offense vs FAMU defense

Offense 314th of 366 against a defense 303rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: FAMU 49.2 and allows 51.2; NORF 49.3 and allows 51.7

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: FAMU 30.9%, NORF 32.5%. Defensive: FAMU 69.1%, NORF 67.7%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FAMU -1.5	—
Total	—	145.1	—
Projected score	—	FAMU 73.3 · NORF 71.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FAMU -1.0	—
1H total	67.9	—
1H projected score	FAMU 34.5 · NORF 33.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
FAMU WWWWL	16-13	55%	1-1	—
NORF WWLLL	13-15	46%	1-3	—

Venue/role: FAMU neutral site; NORF neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAMU OUOUO	11-18	38%	13-16
NORF OOOOO	18-10	64%	11-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAMU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
NORF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Florida A&M

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs TNST	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ TLSA	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ SLU	No recent meeting

Norfolk St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ CAM	No recent meeting
Dec 12	@ HAMP	W62–60LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Florida A&M

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-18

38% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

L L L L L W L L L L W W W W W L L L L W L W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1355%

L L L W W W L W L W W W W W L L L L L W L W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1838%

O U U U O U U U O O U O U U U U U O U O U O U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@USF	L 67-102	+25.5	L −9.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 8	vsKENN	L 72-92	+11.5	L −8.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 11	@UCF	L 60-97	+23.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 157
Nov 17	@UGA	L 57-87	+40.5	W +10.5	170.5	U 144
Dec 2	@JAX	L 82-85	+10.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 167
Dec 17	vsJAX	W 72-65	+3.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 137
Dec 19	@TAR	L 54-78	+14.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 132
Dec 21	@TCU	L 56-80	+29.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 136
Dec 28	@GT	L 65-89	+19.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 3	@BCU	L 83-87	+7.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsSOU	W 67-59	+4.5	W +12.5	153.5	U 126
Jan 12	vsGRAM	W 91-84	+1.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 175
Jan 17	@UAPB	W 71-67	+2.5	W +6.5	149.5	U 138
Jan 19	@MVSU	W 62-48	-11.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 110
Jan 24	vsALCN	W 66-58	-8.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 124
Jan 26	vsJKST	L 65-66	-7.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 131
Jan 31	@AAMU	L 65-72	+3.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 2	@ALST	L 66-79	+3.5	L −9.5	139.5	O 145
Feb 7	vsTXSO	L 57-62	-1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 119
Feb 9	vsPV	W 100-96	-3.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 196
Feb 14	@JKST	L 60-80	-2.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 16	@ALCN	W 86-78	-2.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 164
Feb 19	vsAAMU	L 61-63	-1.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 124
Feb 21	vsALST	W 76-63	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 139
Feb 26	@SOU	W 82-71	+8.5	W +19.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 28	@GRAM	W 66-59	+4.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 5	vsBCU	W 81-77	+2.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 158
Mar 11	vsJKST	W 70-60	-6.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 130
Mar 13	vsSOU	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USF

L 67-102

−9.5

KENN

L 72-92

−8.5

UCF

L 60-97

−13.5

UGA

L 57-87

+10.5

JAX

L 82-85

+7.5

JAX

W 72-65

+10.5

TAR

L 54-78

−9.5

TCU

L 56-80

+5.5

L 65-89

−4.5

BCU

L 83-87

+3.5

SOU

W 67-59

+12.5

GRAM

W 91-84

+8.5

UAPB

W 71-67

+6.5

MVSU

W 62-48

+2.5

ALCN

W 66-58

−0.5

JKST

L 65-66

−8.5

AAMU

L 65-72

−3.5

ALST

L 66-79

−9.5

TXSO

L 57-62

−6.5

W 100-96

+0.5

JKST

L 60-80

−22.5

ALCN

W 86-78

+5.5

AAMU

L 61-63

−3.5

ALST

W 76-63

+14.5

SOU

W 82-71

+19.5

GRAM

W 66-59

+11.5

BCU

W 81-77

+6.5

JKST

W 70-60

+3.5

SOU

L 70-73

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USF

L 67-102

+15.5

KENN

L 72-92

−2.5

UCF

L 60-97

−12.5

UGA

L 57-87

−26.5

JAX

L 82-85

+28.5

JAX

W 72-65

−2.5

TAR

L 54-78

−13.5

TCU

L 56-80

−6.5

L 65-89

+7.5

BCU

L 83-87

+24.5

SOU

W 67-59

−27.5

GRAM

W 91-84

+33.5

UAPB

W 71-67

−11.5

MVSU

W 62-48

−29.5

ALCN

W 66-58

−17.5

JKST

L 65-66

−19.5

AAMU

L 65-72

−1.5

ALST

L 66-79

+5.5

TXSO

L 57-62

−27.5

W 100-96

+46.5

JKST

L 60-80

−4.5

ALCN

W 86-78

+26.5

AAMU

L 61-63

−15.5

ALST

W 76-63

−5.5

SOU

W 82-71

+5.5

GRAM

W 66-59

−15.5

BCU

W 81-77

+12.5

JKST

W 70-60

−11.5

SOU

L 70-73

+1.5

over 11under 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Norfolk St

28 games played

Straight up

11-17

39% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-10

64% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1739%

L L L W L L L L L W W L L L W L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

L W W L W L W L L W W L L L L L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1064%

O U U U O O U O O O O O U U U O O O O O U U U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsW&M	L 78-81	+2.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@ODU	L 57-60	+8.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 117
Nov 14	@TOW	L 41-51	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 21	vsHAMP	W 62-60	-2.5	L −0.5	133.5	U 122
Nov 23	@WYO	L 67-75	+15.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 29	@ARIZ	L 61-98	+35.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Dec 6	@JMU	L 67-68	+10.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 135
Dec 10	@BAY	L 67-97	+26.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 18	vsGRAM	L 68-80	-1.5	L −13.5	135.5	O 148
Dec 19	vsJKST	W 82-72	-5.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 21	@UTEP	W 72-71	+10.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 22	vsUCI	L 70-89	+11.5	L −7.5	136.5	O 159
Dec 28	@UL	L 54-63	+3.5	L −5.5	126.5	U 117
Jan 3	@NCCU	L 67-69	-1.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 10	@DSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	132.5	U 130
Jan 12	vsUMES	L 70-74	-5.5	L −9.5	132.5	O 144
Jan 17	@SCST	W 89-82	-5.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 24	vsCOPP	W 103-76	-13.5	W +13.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 26	vsMORG	L 78-79	-7.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 157
Jan 31	@HOW	L 60-88	+7.5	L −20.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsNCCU	W 75-68	-4.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsDSU	W 75-58	-9.5	W +7.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 16	@UMES	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	U 136
Feb 21	vsSCST	W 90-71	-10.5	W +8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 28	@COPP	W 75-69	-5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 2	@MORG	L 84-90	-3.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 174
Mar 5	vsHOW	L 76-84	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsSCST	L 82-88	-7.5	L −13.5	144.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

−0.5

ODU

L 57-60

+5.5

TOW

L 41-51

+3.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−0.5

WYO

L 67-75

+7.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

−1.5

JMU

L 67-68

+9.5

BAY

L 67-97

−3.5

GRAM

L 68-80

−13.5

JKST

W 82-72

+4.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+11.5

UCI

L 70-89

−7.5

L 54-63

−5.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−3.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

−9.5

SCST

W 89-82

+1.5

COPP

W 103-76

+13.5

MORG

L 78-79

−8.5

HOW

L 60-88

−20.5

NCCU

W 75-68

+2.5

DSU

W 75-58

+7.5

UMES

W 70-66

+2.5

SCST

W 90-71

+8.5

COPP

W 75-69

+0.5

MORG

L 84-90

−9.5

HOW

L 76-84

−1.5

SCST

L 82-88

−13.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

+0.5

ODU

L 57-60

−32.5

TOW

L 41-51

−46.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−11.5

WYO

L 67-75

+0.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

+12.5

JMU

L 67-68

−3.5

BAY

L 67-97

+15.5

GRAM

L 68-80

+12.5

JKST

W 82-72

+13.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+6.5

UCI

L 70-89

+22.5

L 54-63

−9.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−5.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

+11.5

SCST

W 89-82

+31.5

COPP

W 103-76

+35.5

MORG

L 78-79

+4.5

HOW

L 60-88

+1.5

NCCU

W 75-68

−5.5

DSU

W 75-58

−1.5

UMES

W 70-66

−0.5

SCST

W 90-71

+20.5

COPP

W 75-69

+3.5

MORG

L 84-90

+17.5

HOW

L 76-84

+10.5

SCST

L 82-88

+25.5

over 18under 10avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Florida A&M has the better starters

Position by position: Florida A&M 2, Norfolk St 1, even 2

Florida A&MBetterNorfolk St

G J. Kempson TR10.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 33

NORFSmall

G B. Laster TR6.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 51

G J. Sanders12 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 42

FAMUSmall

G A. Newton3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12

G A. Baker9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

Even

F J. Gupton TR7.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 22

G R. Martino6.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

FAMUBig

F B. Gardner TR3.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3

F D. Williford TR2.2 pts · 0.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Riley TR3.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 56

Florida A&MBetterNorfolk St

FAMU offense326th of 366 · -10.6

Even

NORF defense301st of 366 · -7.7

FAMU defense303rd of 366 · -7.8

Even

NORF offense314th of 366 · -10.1

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

NORFBig

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

FAMUBig

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

Even

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestFAMU betterNORF betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Florida A&M

Guards

J. Kempson32 min · TRJ. Sanders32 minA. Baker27 minR. Martino22 minC. DavisNewA. WilliamsNew

Forwards

D. Williford6 min · TRT. Onuoha5 minM. StijovicNewJ. LomickaNewB. NdourNew

Centers

A. Mbaye1 min · TRJ. MokwezaNew

Norfolk St

Guards

B. Laster19 min · TRA. Newton16 minA. Torrence1 minC. WalkerNewD. CamaraNewJ. SkyersNew

Forwards

J. Gupton25 min · TRB. Gardner16 min · TRJ. Riley11 min · TRM. MitchellNew

Centers

J. JordanNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

FAMU70.0 #285

NORF71.6 #257

Points per possession

FAMU0.99 #334

NORF1.04 #274

Pace (possessions)

FAMU70.6 #92

NORF69.1 #172

Shooting

Effective FG%

FAMU49.2 #283

NORF49.3 #277

3-point %

FAMU32.6 #249

NORF34.2 #157

3-point attempt rate

FAMU37.7 #219

NORF30.6 #347

Free throw rate

FAMU37.4 #116

NORF43.5 #13

Possessions

Turnover rate

FAMU21.5 #359

NORF18.7 #311

Offensive rebound rate

FAMU30.9 #168

NORF32.5 #108

Assists per game

FAMU12.7 #236

NORF11.3 #326

Defense

Points allowed

FAMU75.1 #192

NORF74.7 #181

Points allowed per possession

FAMU1.06 #114

NORF1.08 #160

Opponent effective FG%

FAMU51.2 #171

NORF51.7 #196

Opponent 3-point %

FAMU34.9 #243

NORF32.0 #61

Turnovers forced

FAMU19.1 #43

NORF18.8 #58

Defensive rebound rate

FAMU69.1 #198

NORF67.7 #270

Steals per game

FAMU8.1 #35

NORF6.5 #180

Blocks per game

FAMU3.0 #220

NORF2.8 #264

FAMU		NORF
Scoring
70.0 #285	Points per game	71.6 #257
0.99 #334	Points per possession	1.04 #274
70.6 #92	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #172
Shooting
49.2 #283	Effective FG%	49.3 #277
32.6 #249	3-point %	34.2 #157
37.7 #219	3-point attempt rate	30.6 #347
37.4 #116	Free throw rate	43.5 #13
Possessions
21.5 #359	Turnover rate	18.7 #311
30.9 #168	Offensive rebound rate	32.5 #108
12.7 #236	Assists per game	11.3 #326
Defense
75.1 #192	Points allowed	74.7 #181
1.06 #114	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #160
51.2 #171	Opponent effective FG%	51.7 #196
34.9 #243	Opponent 3-point %	32.0 #61
19.1 #43	Turnovers forced	18.8 #58
69.1 #198	Defensive rebound rate	67.7 #270
8.1 #35	Steals per game	6.5 #180
3.0 #220	Blocks per game	2.8 #264

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Florida A&M

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern70–73
Wvs Jackson St70–60
Wvs Bethune81–77
W@ Grambling66–59
W@ Southern82–71

A week or more of rest.

Norfolk St

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SC State82–88
Lvs Howard76–84
L@ Morgan St84–90
W@ Coppin St75–69
Wvs SC State90–71

A week or more of rest.

Florida A&M Rattlers vs Norfolk State Spartans

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Florida A&M

Norfolk St

Florida A&M has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Florida A&M

Norfolk St