Norfolk State Spartans at North Carolina Central Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 4:30 PM ETMcDougald-McLendon Arena · at NC Central · Conference game

#319NORFNorfolk St67final

Final

#357NCCUNC Central69▲ winner

Closing lineNORF -1.5✓ NCCU covered by 3.5

Closing total141.5Under by 5.5

Season records: Norfolk St and NC Central
NORF	This season	NCCU
3-10	Record	0-11
6-7	ATS	6-5
8-5	O/U	4-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NORF 72–70 NCCU · ✗ NORF (58%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NORF	31	36	67
NCCU	38	31	69

1st half: NORF 31, NCCU 38 (NCCU by 7). The model had NORF by 1.5 and a total of 66.2 (actual 69).

Team stats

NORF		NCCU
25-62 40%	Field goals	24-62 39%
4-17 24%	3-pointers	4-21 19%
13-20 65%	Free throws	17-25 68%
40 17 off	Rebounds	44 19 off
9	Assists	17
7	Steals	6
9	Blocks	5
12	Turnovers	13
18	Fouls	15
42	Points in paint	38
9	Fast-break points	11

Players

NORF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Anthony McComb III G	38	11	5	0	3-12	1-4
Elijah Jamison G	34	15	2	3	6-16	2-8
Devon Ellis F	29	18	8	4	7-15	1-3
Keyontae Lewis F	22	4	5	0	1-4	0-0
Adrean Newton G	16	2	1	1	1-2	0-0
Bench
My'kel Jenkins G	21	6	5	0	2-3	0-0
Jaquel Morris F	18	0	7	0	0-2	0-0
Jordan Leaks G	12	2	2	0	1-4	0-2
Dian Wright-Forde G	10	9	2	1	4-4	0-0

Did not play: Mekhi Reid, Melo Baines, Dramane Camara, Ahmad Torrence, Yel Deeng, Ryan Williams

NCCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Gage Lattimore G	39	14	7	4	4-11	2-7
Khouri Carvey F	37	24	11	1	9-16	0-0
Dionte Johnson G	37	6	6	7	2-7	0-1
Tekao Carpenter G	26	6	3	1	2-8	2-7
Ramondo Battle II F	9	2	4	1	1-5	0-2
Bench
Jae Slack F	31	11	4	3	3-9	0-3
Kyric Davis G	13	6	1	0	3-4	0-0
Kelechi Okworogwo F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Ryan Archey G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Khalil Arnold G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Gbenga Olubi, Caleb Ellison, Camren Daniels, Justin Edwards, Jonathan Dunn

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NORF -1.5	NORF -2.3	NORF +0.8	L NCCU covered
Total	141.5	141.3	Under 0.2	W Under
Projected score	—	NORF 71.8 · NCCU 69.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NORF -1.5	NCCU -7.0
1H total	66.2	69
1H projected score	NORF 33.9 · NCCU 32.4	NORF 31 · NCCU 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NORF LWWLL	6-7	46%	5-3	1-2
NCCU WLWWW	6-5	55%	1-1	6-5

Venue/role: NORF away, as favorite; NCCU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NORF OOOOU	8-5	62%	3-10
NCCU UUOUO	4-7	36%	0-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NORF	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
NCCU	0-10 0%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

NORF 5–4 NCCUNORF leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · NORF 4-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 3, 2024-25	NORF 87 @ NCCU 91	NCCU +5.5	NCCU W
Feb 3, 2024-25	NCCU 78 @ NORF 81	NORF -9.5	NCCU W
Feb 19, 2023-24	NCCU 74 @ NORF 80	NORF -6.5	NCCU W
Jan 8, 2023-24	NORF 58 @ NCCU 60	NCCU -1.5	NCCU W
Mar 10, 2022-23	NORF 72 vs NCCU 65	NCCU -0.5	NORF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Norfolk St

13 games played

Straight up

3-10

23% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-5

62% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1023%

L L L W L L L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-746%

L W W L W L W L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-562%

O U U U O O U O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsW&M	L 78-81	+2.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@ODU	L 57-60	+8.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 117
Nov 14	@TOW	L 41-51	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 21	vsHAMP	W 62-60	-2.5	L −0.5	133.5	U 122
Nov 23	@WYO	L 67-75	+15.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 29	@ARIZ	L 61-98	+35.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Dec 6	@JMU	L 67-68	+10.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 135
Dec 10	@BAY	L 67-97	+26.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 18	vsGRAM	L 68-80	-1.5	L −13.5	135.5	O 148
Dec 19	vsJKST	W 82-72	-5.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 21	@UTEP	W 72-71	+10.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 22	vsUCI	L 70-89	+11.5	L −7.5	136.5	O 159
Dec 28	@UL	L 54-63	+3.5	L −5.5	126.5	U 117

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

−0.5

ODU

L 57-60

+5.5

TOW

L 41-51

+3.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−0.5

WYO

L 67-75

+7.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

−1.5

JMU

L 67-68

+9.5

BAY

L 67-97

−3.5

GRAM

L 68-80

−13.5

JKST

W 82-72

+4.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+11.5

UCI

L 70-89

−7.5

L 54-63

−5.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

+0.5

ODU

L 57-60

−32.5

TOW

L 41-51

−46.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−11.5

WYO

L 67-75

+0.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

+12.5

JMU

L 67-68

−3.5

BAY

L 67-97

+15.5

GRAM

L 68-80

+12.5

JKST

W 82-72

+13.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+6.5

UCI

L 70-89

+22.5

L 54-63

−9.5

over 8under 5avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

NC Central

11 games played

Straight up

0-11

0% wins

Against the spread

6-5

55% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-7

36% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-110%

L L L L L L L L L L L

11 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-555%

L W L L W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-736%

O U U U U O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NCSU	L 66-114	+31.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	@UVA	L 62-81	+34.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 9	@APP	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UNC	L 53-97	+34.5	L −9.5	159.5	U 150
Nov 22	@DAY	L 55-74	+29.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 129
Nov 25	@UPST	L 67-82	+7.5	L −7.5	148.5	O 149
Dec 3	@JMU	L 62-67	+14.5	W +9.5	143.5	U 129
Dec 6	vsNCAT	L 54-69	+2.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 123
Dec 9	@UK	L 67-103	+42.5	W +6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsLONG	L 72-74	+3.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 29	@PSU	L 67-90	+23.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

−16.5

UVA

L 62-81

+15.5

APP

L 54-76

−11.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

DAY

L 55-74

+10.5

UPST

L 67-82

−7.5

JMU

L 62-67

+9.5

NCAT

L 54-69

−12.5

L 67-103

+6.5

LONG

L 72-74

+1.5

PSU

L 67-90

+0.5

covered 6didn’t cover 5avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

+34.5

UVA

L 62-81

−8.5

APP

L 54-76

−6.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

DAY

L 55-74

−17.5

UPST

L 67-82

+0.5

JMU

L 62-67

−14.5

NCAT

L 54-69

−19.5

L 67-103

+21.5

LONG

L 72-74

−0.5

PSU

L 67-90

+6.5

over 4under 7avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Norfolk State Spartans at North Carolina Central Eagles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Norfolk St

NC Central

Norfolk St

NC Central