Alcorn State Braves at Jackson State Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 4:30 PM ETLee E. Williams Athletics and Assembly Center · at Jackson St · Conference game

#360ALCNAlcorn St86final

Final

#280JKSTJackson St89▲ winner

Closing lineJKST -5.5✓ ALCN covered by 2.5

Closing total145.5Over by 29.5

Season records: Alcorn St and Jackson St
ALCN	This season	JKST
1-11	Record	1-12
5-7	ATS	4-9
8-4	O/U	8-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ALCN 74–78 JKST · ✓ JKST (64%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ALCN	37	49	86
JKST	53	36	89

1st half: ALCN 37, JKST 53 (JKST by 16). The model had JKST by 2.3 and a total of 71.4 (actual 90).

Team stats

ALCN		JKST
29-62 47%	Field goals	29-55 53%
14-26 54%	3-pointers	10-27 37%
14-24 58%	Free throws	21-25 84%
35 13 off	Rebounds	32 7 off
19	Assists	16
7	Steals	5
4	Blocks	4
10	Turnovers	10
19	Fouls	18
28	Points in paint	32
16	Fast-break points	21

Players

ALCN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Shane Lancaster G	34	21	1	0	7-9	6-7
Davian Williams PG	33	24	6	3	9-15	4-7
Tycen McDaniels F	29	7	5	2	2-9	0-0
Nick Woodard SF	26	21	7	3	7-11	3-4
Jameel Morris G	25	0	5	5	0-4	0-2
Bench
Bryson Calamese PG	22	5	0	4	1-7	1-4
Omari Hamilton F	14	4	3	0	1-4	0-1
Mike Jones SG	7	4	2	1	2-2	0-0
Travis Roberts SG	6	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
William Henderson F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jeremy Ellis PF	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ray Glasgow, Alex Hawkins

JKST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Daeshun Ruffin G	35	31	1	8	8-14	3-6
Devin Ree F	31	14	2	2	4-6	4-5
Dorian McMillian G	31	14	5	2	5-10	2-6
Jayme Mitchell Jr. G	25	14	4	0	6-13	1-5
Dionjahe Thomas F	11	0	1	1	0-1	0-0
Bench
Delyle Williams G	29	4	5	3	1-2	0-1
Tamarion Hoover G	17	3	6	0	1-4	0-3
Raevon Thomas F	12	7	2	0	3-4	0-1
Kobe Butler F	9	2	3	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Jalen Tatum, Ebo Wilson, Keiveon Hunt, Kedrick Simmons, Deyan Kolev, Mike Williams, Cael Jones

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	JKST -5.5	JKST -4.0	ALCN +1.5	W ALCN covered
Total	145.5	152.4	Over 6.9	W Over
Projected score	—	ALCN 74.2 · JKST 78.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JKST -2.3	JKST -16.0
1H total	71.4	90
1H projected score	ALCN 34.5 · JKST 36.8	ALCN 37 · JKST 53

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALCN WLLLL	5-7	42%	4-7	5-7
JKST LLWLL	4-9	31%	0-1	—

Venue/role: ALCN away, as underdog; JKST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALCN OOOOU	8-4	67%	1-11
JKST UUOOO	8-5	62%	1-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALCN	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
JKST	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

ALCN 4–4 JKSTSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · JKST has won the last 2 meetings · ALCN 3-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2024-25	ALCN 63 @ JKST 71	JKST -6.5	JKST W
Jan 4, 2024-25	JKST 72 @ ALCN 69	ALCN +2.5	JKST W
Feb 24, 2023-24	JKST 73 @ ALCN 87	ALCN -4	ALCN W
Jan 6, 2023-24	ALCN 80 @ JKST 88	JKST -6.5	JKST W
Feb 18, 2022-23	ALCN 75 @ JKST 60	JKST -2.5	ALCN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alcorn St

12 games played

Straight up

1-11

8% wins

Against the spread

5-7

42% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-4

67% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-118%

L L L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-742%

L W L W L W W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-467%

O O U O U O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FSU	L 76-108	+27.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 6	@USA	L 70-76	+18.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 8	@MINN	L 50-95	+31.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 11	@MD	L 64-84	+29.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 13	@HOW	L 64-72	+6.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 18	@LSU	L 81-107	+32.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 23	@OU	L 53-72	+31.5	W +12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsINST	W 81-74	+12.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 29	@LT	L 58-83	+16.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Dec 3	@ISU	L 68-132	+42.5	L −21.5	151.5	O 200
Dec 19	@BAY	L 56-113	+35.5	L −21.5	160.5	O 169
Dec 29	@MISS	L 43-79	+28.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

−4.5

USA

L 70-76

+12.5

MINN

L 50-95

−13.5

L 64-84

+9.5

HOW

L 64-72

−1.5

LSU

L 81-107

+6.5

L 53-72

+12.5

INST

W 81-74

+19.5

L 58-83

−8.5

ISU

L 68-132

−21.5

BAY

L 56-113

−21.5

MISS

L 43-79

−7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 7avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

+27.5

USA

L 70-76

+4.5

MINN

L 50-95

−7.5

L 64-84

+1.5

HOW

L 64-72

−18.5

LSU

L 81-107

+32.5

L 53-72

−35.5

INST

W 81-74

+2.5

L 58-83

+3.5

ISU

L 68-132

+48.5

BAY

L 56-113

+8.5

MISS

L 43-79

−26.5

over 8under 4avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jackson St

13 games played

Straight up

1-12

8% wins

Against the spread

4-9

31% covers · avg −8.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-5

62% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-128%

L L L L L L W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-931%

L W L L L L W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-562%

O O U O O U U O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ILL	L 55-113	+28.5	L −29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 6	@LOU	L 70-106	+38.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 15	@LT	L 51-68	+8.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@AUB	L 66-112	+30.5	L −15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 21	@ARK	L 61-115	+29.5	L −24.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 23	vsWIN	L 62-80	+10.5	L −7.5	163.5	U 142
Nov 28	@UL	W 51-45	+5.5	W +11.5	136.5	U 96
Dec 2	@KENN	L 73-88	+15.5	W +0.5	157.5	O 161
Dec 10	@HOU	L 38-80	+40.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 13	@NU	L 53-93	+30.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 18	vsHAMP	L 77-84	+8.5	W +1.5	135.5	O 161
Dec 19	vsNORF	L 72-82	+5.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 29	@TCU	L 64-115	+30.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 179

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

−29.5

LOU

L 70-106

+2.5

L 51-68

−8.5

AUB

L 66-112

−15.5

ARK

L 61-115

−24.5

WIN

L 62-80

−7.5

W 51-45

+11.5

KENN

L 73-88

+0.5

HOU

L 38-80

−1.5

L 53-93

−9.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+1.5

NORF

L 72-82

−4.5

TCU

L 64-115

−20.5

covered 4didn’t cover 9avg −8.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

+10.5

LOU

L 70-106

+10.5

L 51-68

−27.5

AUB

L 66-112

+21.5

ARK

L 61-115

+16.5

WIN

L 62-80

−21.5

W 51-45

−40.5

KENN

L 73-88

+3.5

HOU

L 38-80

−19.5

L 53-93

−0.5

HAMP

L 77-84

+25.5

NORF

L 72-82

+13.5

TCU

L 64-115

+35.5

over 8under 5avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alcorn State Braves at Jackson State Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Alcorn St

Jackson St

Alcorn St

Jackson St