Winthrop Eagles at Jackson State Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 8:00 PM ETLee E. Williams Athletics and Assembly Center · at Jackson St

#205WINWinthrop80▲ winner

Final

#280JKSTJackson St62final

Closing lineWIN -10.5✓ WIN covered by 7.5

Closing total163.5Under by 21.5

Season records: Winthrop and Jackson St
WIN	This season	JKST
2-3	Record	0-5
4-1	ATS	1-4
2-3	O/U	4-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WIN 87–76 JKST · ✓ WIN (82%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WIN	32	48	80
JKST	32	30	62

1st half: WIN 32, JKST 32 (tied). The model had WIN by 6.5 and a total of 76.1 (actual 64).

Team stats

WIN		JKST
30-62 48%	Field goals	24-56 43%
11-30 37%	3-pointers	9-27 33%
9-10 90%	Free throws	5-8 63%
36 11 off	Rebounds	30 8 off
20	Assists	10
7	Steals	5
2	Blocks	3
8	Turnovers	13
10	Fouls	11
38	Points in paint	20
17	Fast-break points	8

Players

WIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kareem Rozier G	25	9	2	4	3-8	3-7
Daylen Berry G	24	5	4	1	2-5	1-2
Kody Clouet G	24	9	5	5	3-9	1-6
Logan Duncomb C	21	14	2	0	6-10	0-0
Isaiah Wilson G	19	2	1	1	1-3	0-2
Bench
Seifeldin Hendawy G	20	12	4	3	4-6	3-5
Josh Meo G	16	5	5	3	2-5	1-2
Tommy Kamarad F	15	7	4	1	3-6	1-3
Pharrell Boyogueno G	13	3	3	0	1-2	1-2
Tai Hamilton F	12	10	4	1	3-3	0-0
Ed Nnamoko F	7	4	0	1	2-3	0-0
Braylhan Thomas G	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Kaleb Evans, Henry Harrison, Cam Christy

JKST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jayme Mitchell Jr. G	39	16	3	1	6-12	2-6
Dorian McMillian G	39	19	2	5	8-22	3-11
Kobe Butler F	25	2	4	1	1-2	0-0
Ebo Wilson C	24	0	6	1	0-2	0-0
Delyle Williams G	12	0	2	0	0-2	0-1
Bench
Devin Ree F	26	10	3	0	4-8	1-4
Tamarion Hoover G	21	12	4	2	4-6	2-3
Kedrick Simmons F	9	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Deyan Kolev F	5	3	0	0	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Mike Williams, Cael Jones, Daeshun Ruffin, Raevon Thomas, Jalen Tatum, Keiveon Hunt, Dionjahe Thomas

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WIN -10.5	WIN -10.4	JKST +0.1	L WIN covered
Total	163.5	162.6	Under 0.9	W Under
Projected score	—	WIN 86.5 · JKST 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WIN -6.5	PK
1H total	76.1	64
1H projected score	WIN 41.3 · JKST 34.8	WIN 32 · JKST 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIN WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-1	2-1
JKST LWLLL	1-4	20%	—	1-4

Venue/role: WIN away, as favorite; JKST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIN UOUOU	2-3	40%	2-3
JKST OOUOO	4-1	80%	0-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WINlast 5	2-3 40%	4-1 80%	2-3 40%
JKSTlast 5	0-5 0%	1-4 20%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Winthrop

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +10.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUC	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 7	@GMU	L 90-96	+9.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 11	@CCU	L 66-72	-2.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMER	W 105-69	-2.5	W +33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 18	@ARK	L 83-84	+23.5	W +22.5	168.5	U 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

+3.5

GMU

L 90-96

+3.5

CCU

L 66-72

−8.5

MER

W 105-69

+33.5

ARK

L 83-84

+22.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +10.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUC

W 81-74

−8.5

GMU

L 90-96

+39.5

CCU

L 66-72

−27.5

MER

W 105-69

+11.5

ARK

L 83-84

−1.5

over 2under 3avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jackson St

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −15.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +6.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ILL	L 55-113	+28.5	L −29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 6	@LOU	L 70-106	+38.5	W +2.5	165.5	O 176
Nov 15	@LT	L 51-68	+8.5	L −8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@AUB	L 66-112	+30.5	L −15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 21	@ARK	L 61-115	+29.5	L −24.5	159.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

−29.5

LOU

L 70-106

+2.5

L 51-68

−8.5

AUB

L 66-112

−15.5

ARK

L 61-115

−24.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −15.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ILL

L 55-113

+10.5

LOU

L 70-106

+10.5

L 51-68

−27.5

AUB

L 66-112

+21.5

ARK

L 61-115

+16.5

over 4under 1avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Winthrop Eagles at Jackson State Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Winthrop

Jackson St

Winthrop

Jackson St