Rupp Arena · at Kentucky
Closing line
UK -42.5✓ NCCU covered by 6.5
UK -42.5✓ NCCU covered by 6.5Closing total148.5Over by 21.5
 NCCU | This season | UK |
|---|---|---|
| 0-8 | Record | 5-4 |
| 3-5 | ATS | 4-5 |
| 2-6 | O/U | 4-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NCCU 57–92 UK · ✓ UK (100%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCCU | 31 | 36 | 67 |
| UK | 52 | 51 | 103 |
1st half: NCCU 31, UK 52 (UK by 21). The model had UK by 21.1 and a total of 69.9 (actual 83).
Team stats
| NCCU | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-57 42% | Field goals | 39-64 61% |
| 6-19 32% | 3-pointers | 12-29 41% |
| 13-17 76% | Free throws | 13-14 93% |
| 26 7 off | Rebounds | 36 7 off |
| 16 | Assists | 27 |
| 7 | Steals | 9 |
| 0 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 52 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 34 |
Players
| NCCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gage Lattimore G | 36 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 4-16 | 1-7 |
| Khouri Carvey F | 28 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 7-9 | 0-0 |
| Ramondo Battle II F | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-7 | 2-5 |
| Dionte Johnson G | 21 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Tekao Carpenter G | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jae Slack F | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Kyric Davis G | 16 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Kelechi Okworogwo F | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Archey G | 11 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-1 |
| Justin Edwards G | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Khalil Arnold G | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Gbenga Olubi F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Camren Daniels G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Caleb Ellison, Jonathan Dunn
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Chandler G | 32 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Otega Oweh G | 27 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 9-12 | 3-4 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 27 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7-9 | 0-0 |
| Trent Noah F | 26 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 4-8 | 3-6 |
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 24 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 4-7 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jasper Johnson G | 19 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 6-10 | 2-4 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 15 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-4 |
| Kam Williams G | 13 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Jaland Lowe G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Walker Horn G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Zach Tow F | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Reece Potter, Jayden Quaintance, Braydon Hawthorne, Mo Dioubate
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUK -42.5
ModelUK -35.3
Model edgeNCCU +7.2
W NCCU covered
Total
Market148.5
Model149.3
Model edgeOver 0.8
W Over
Projected score
NCCU 57 · UK 92.3
NCCU 67 · UK 103
Win probability
UK 100%
1st half
Spread
UK -21.1
UK -21.0
Total
69.9
83 points
Projected score
NCCU 24.4 · UK 45.5
NCCU 31 · UK 52
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUK -38.5
4 → UK
CloseUK -42.5
4 pts toward UK
Total
Open148.5
no move
Close148.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
—
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UK -38.5 · closed UK -42.5 · moved 4 toward UKmodel UK -35.5
model UK -35.5
Opened 148.5 · unchangedmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCCUlast 8 | 0-8 0% | 3-5 38% | 2-6 25% |
| UKlast 9 | 5-4 56% | 4-5 44% | 4-5 44% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
NC Central
8 games played
Straight up
0-8
0% wins
Against the spread
3-5
38% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-6
25% overs · avg −5.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ NCSU | L 66-114 | +31.5 | L −16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | @ UVA | L 62-81 | +34.5 | W +15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 9 | @ APP | L 54-76 | +10.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 14 | @ UNC | L 53-97 | +34.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 22 | @ DAY | L 55-74 | +29.5 | W +10.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 25 | @ UPST | L 67-82 | +7.5 | L −7.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 3 | @ JMU | L 62-67 | +14.5 | W +9.5 | 143.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 6 | vs NCAT | L 54-69 | +2.5 | L −12.5 | 142.5 | U 123 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@NCSU
NCSUL 66-114
−16.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 62-81
+15.5
9
@APP
APPL 54-76
−11.5
14
@UNC
UNCL 53-97
−9.5
22
@DAY
DAYL 55-74
+10.5
25
@UPST
UPSTL 67-82
−7.5
3
@JMU
JMUL 62-67
+9.5
6
vsNCAT
NCATL 54-69
−12.5
covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@NCSU
NCSUL 66-114
+34.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 62-81
−8.5
9
@APP
APPL 54-76
−6.5
14
@UNC
UNCL 53-97
−9.5
22
@DAY
DAYL 55-74
−17.5
25
@UPST
UPSTL 67-82
+0.5
3
@JMU
JMUL 62-67
−14.5
6
vsNCAT
NCATL 54-69
−19.5
over 2under 6avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kentucky
9 games played
Straight up
5-4
56% wins
Against the spread
4-5
44% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-5
44% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vsUNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 5 | vs GONZ | L 59-94 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−29.5
covered 4didn’t cover 5avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−6.5
over 4under 5avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
NC Central
0-8 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs NC A&T54–69
- L@ James Madison62–67
- L@ SC Upstate67–82
- L@ Dayton55–74
- L@ North Carolina53–97
3 days since their last game.
Kentucky
5-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Gonzaga59–94
- Lvs North Carolina64–67
- Wvs Tennessee Tech104–54
- Wvs Loyola MD88–46
- Lvs Michigan St66–83
4 days since their last game.