North Carolina A&T Aggies vs Howard Bison: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 9, 7:00 PM ETCameron Indoor Stadium · Neutral site

#275NCATNC A&T69final

Final

#197HOWHoward73▲ winner

Closing lineNCAT -2.5✓ HOW covered by 6.5

Closing total149.5Under by 7.5

Season records: NC A&T and Howard
NCAT	This season	HOW
3-3	Record	2-5
4-2	ATS	3-4
2-4	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NCAT 76–74 HOW · ✗ NCAT (57%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NCAT	30	39	69
HOW	41	32	73

1st half: NCAT 30, HOW 41 (HOW by 11). The model had NCAT by 1.4 and a total of 69.8 (actual 71).

Team stats

NCAT		HOW
27-63 43%	Field goals	24-54 44%
4-16 25%	3-pointers	6-14 43%
11-15 73%	Free throws	19-28 68%
41 18 off	Rebounds	34 12 off
6	Assists	15
6	Steals	8
9	Blocks	8
15	Turnovers	14
20	Fouls	22
34	Points in paint	30
9	Fast-break points	23

Players

NCAT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Lewis Walker F	33	15	3	1	6-11	1-2
Trent Middleton Jr. G	28	18	6	0	6-14	2-5
Dwayne Pierce G	26	6	1	2	3-7	0-2
Lo Walker G	22	1	2	1	0-6	0-2
Amadou Doumbia F	6	0	3	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Zamoku Weluche-Ume F	31	10	8	1	4-10	0-3
Bryson Ogletree G	21	7	2	1	2-3	1-2
KJ Debrick F	20	8	8	0	4-8	0-0
Will Felton C	13	4	2	0	2-4	0-0

Did not play: Yancarlos Cueto, Brooklyn Vick, Mujahiid Burton, Efstratios Kalliontzis, Chanler Montgomery, Jalal McKie, Uchenna Kellman-Nicholes

HOW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Bryce Harris G	39	19	10	2	5-12	2-4
Cam Gillus G	37	19	2	6	5-10	2-4
Alex Cotton G	37	6	5	0	2-6	2-5
Danas Kazakevicius C	36	19	5	2	9-13	0-0
Ose Okojie G	18	3	3	1	1-5	0-0
Bench
Isaiah Brown G	22	5	2	4	1-4	0-0
Calvin Robins Jr. F	8	2	2	0	1-3	0-0
Jeremiah Johnson G	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: River Smith, Julian Johnson, Shane Frazier, BJ Powell, Stefan Isailovic, Travelle Bryson, Cedric Taylor III, Ed Holland III

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NCAT -2.5	NCAT -2.0	HOW +0.5	W HOW covered
Total	149.5	149.1	Under 0.4	W Under
Projected score	—	NCAT 75.5 · HOW 73.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NCAT -1.4	HOW -11.0
1H total	69.8	71
1H projected score	NCAT 35.6 · HOW 34.2	NCAT 30 · HOW 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NCAT WWLLW	4-2	67%	—	3-0
HOW WLWWL	3-4	43%	1-0	1-2

Venue/role: NCAT neutral site, as favorite; HOW neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCAT UUOUU	2-4	33%	3-3
HOW UUOUO	2-5	29%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCATlast 6	3-3 50%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
HOWlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NCAT 0–1 HOWHOW leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NCAT 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 18, 2021-22	NCAT 57 vs HOW 79	HOW PK	HOW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC A&T

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +4.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-267%

W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@SC	L 72-91	+22.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 10	vsSCST	W 85-62	-2.5	W +20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 18	@MORG	W 79-73	-2.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 152
Nov 28	@DAV	L 74-90	+13.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 2	@CLT	L 57-74	+7.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 6	@NCCU	W 69-54	-2.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 72-91

+3.5

SCST

W 85-62

+20.5

MORG

W 79-73

+3.5

DAV

L 74-90

−2.5

CLT

L 57-74

−9.5

NCCU

W 69-54

+12.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 72-91

+19.5

SCST

W 85-62

−12.5

MORG

W 79-73

−9.5

DAV

L 74-90

+18.5

CLT

L 57-74

−13.5

NCCU

W 69-54

−19.5

over 2under 4avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Howard

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-529%

U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMIZ	L 67-88	+20.5	L −0.5	158.5	U 155
Nov 9	vsGRAM	L 70-73	-4.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 13	vsALCN	W 72-64	-6.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 19	@STET	L 60-64	-1.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 124
Nov 22	vsNIA	W 80-70	-4.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 150
Nov 23	@DUKE	L 56-93	+43.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 149
Nov 29	@MSM	L 75-79	+2.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIZ

L 67-88

−0.5

GRAM

L 70-73

−7.5

ALCN

W 72-64

+1.5

STET

L 60-64

−5.5

NIA

W 80-70

+5.5

DUKE

L 56-93

+6.5

MSM

L 75-79

−1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIZ

L 67-88

−3.5

GRAM

L 70-73

−9.5

ALCN

W 72-64

−18.5

STET

L 60-64

−25.5

NIA

W 80-70

+11.5

DUKE

L 56-93

−5.5

MSM

L 75-79

+7.5

over 2under 5avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

NC A&T vs Howard

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

NC A&T

Howard

NC A&T

Howard