Bryce Jordan Center · at Penn State
Closing line
PSU -23.5✓ NCCU covered by 0.5
PSU -23.5✓ NCCU covered by 0.5Closing total150.5Over by 6.5
 NCCU | This season | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-10 | Record | 8-4 |
| 5-5 | ATS | 4-8 |
| 3-7 | O/U | 6-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NCCU 65–86 PSU · ✓ PSU (96%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCCU | 33 | 34 | 67 |
| PSU | 36 | 54 | 90 |
1st half: NCCU 33, PSU 36 (PSU by 3). The model had PSU by 12.1 and a total of 70.5 (actual 69).
Team stats
| NCCU | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-52 56% | Field goals | 33-59 56% |
| 5-15 33% | 3-pointers | 14-32 44% |
| 4-7 57% | Free throws | 10-13 77% |
| 31 10 off | Rebounds | 22 8 off |
| 13 | Assists | 20 |
| 8 | Steals | 13 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 23 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 20 |
Players
| NCCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tekao Carpenter G | 37 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 4-8 | 1-4 |
| Dionte Johnson G | 30 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 5-11 | 1-2 |
| Kyric Davis G | 29 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 4-5 | 0-1 |
| Khouri Carvey F | 25 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 6-9 | 0-1 |
| Ramondo Battle II F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kelechi Okworogwo F | 29 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5-6 | 1-1 |
| Jae Slack F | 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Khalil Arnold G | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Justin Edwards G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Camren Daniels G | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Archey G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Gbenga Olubi, Caleb Ellison, Jonathan Dunn, Gage Lattimore
| PSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Dilione V G | 32 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 4-11 | 1-5 |
| Kayden Mingo G | 27 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 8-12 | 3-6 |
| Ivan Juric F | 25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Eli Rice G | 22 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 5-7 | 4-6 |
| Josh Reed F | 22 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Melih Tunca G | 27 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 4-7 | 1-3 |
| Dominick Stewart G | 15 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Sasa Ciani F | 11 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Mason Blackwood F | 10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Tibor Mirtic F | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Justin Houser C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Chris Lotito F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Reggie Grodin
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPSU -22.5
1 → PSU
ClosePSU -23.5
1 pt toward PSU
Total
Open149.5
▲ 1
Close150.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
NCCU +2500 · PSU -9000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PSU -22.5 · closed PSU -23.5 · moved 1 toward PSUmodel PSU -20.5
model PSU -20.5
Opened 149.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 1 upmodel 150.5 matches the line
model 150.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | PSU -23.5 | PSU -20.4 | NCCU +3.1 | W NCCU covered |
| Total | 150.5 | 150.6 | Over 0.1 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | NCCU 65.1 · PSU 85.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | PSU -12.1 | PSU -3.0 |
| 1H total | 70.5 | 69 |
| 1H projected score | NCCU 29.2 · PSU 41.3 | NCCU 33 · PSU 36 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCCU | 0-10 0% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| PSU | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
NC Central
10 games played
Straight up
0-10
0% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-7
30% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ NCSU | L 66-114 | +31.5 | L −16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | @ UVA | L 62-81 | +34.5 | W +15.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 9 | @ APP | L 54-76 | +10.5 | L −11.5 | 136.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 14 | @ UNC | L 53-97 | +34.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 22 | @ DAY | L 55-74 | +29.5 | W +10.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 25 | @ UPST | L 67-82 | +7.5 | L −7.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 3 | @ JMU | L 62-67 | +14.5 | W +9.5 | 143.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 6 | vs NCAT | L 54-69 | +2.5 | L −12.5 | 142.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 9 | @ UK | L 67-103 | +42.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs LONG | L 72-74 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@NCSU
NCSUL 66-114
−16.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 62-81
+15.5
9
@APP
APPL 54-76
−11.5
14
@UNC
UNCL 53-97
−9.5
22
@DAY
DAYL 55-74
+10.5
25
@UPST
UPSTL 67-82
−7.5
3
@JMU
JMUL 62-67
+9.5
6
vsNCAT
NCATL 54-69
−12.5
9
@UK
UKL 67-103
+6.5
20
vsLONG
LONGL 72-74
+1.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@NCSU
NCSUL 66-114
+34.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 62-81
−8.5
9
@APP
APPL 54-76
−6.5
14
@UNC
UNCL 53-97
−9.5
22
@DAY
DAYL 55-74
−17.5
25
@UPST
UPSTL 67-82
+0.5
3
@JMU
JMUL 62-67
−14.5
6
vsNCAT
NCATL 54-69
−19.5
9
@UK
UKL 67-103
+21.5
20
vsLONG
LONGL 72-74
−0.5
over 3under 7avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Penn State
12 games played
Straight up
8-4
67% wins
Against the spread
4-8
33% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-6
50% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAIR | W 76-68 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 8 | @ NHVN | W 87-43 | -18.5 | W +25.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 11 | vs NAVY | W 80-71 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs LAS | W 83-69 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 19 | vs HARV | W 84-80 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 142.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PROV | L 65-77 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 25 | vs BU | W 96-87 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 29 | vs SHU | W 90-59 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 160.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs CAM | W 87-76 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 9 | @ IU | L 72-113 | +14.5 | L −26.5 | 152.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 13 | vs MSU | L 72-76 | +12.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 21 | vs PITT | L 46-80 | -1.5 | L −35.5 | 146.5 | U 126 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
+25.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−2.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+5.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
−8.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−8.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
−5.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
+16.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
−3.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
−26.5
13
vsMSU
MSUL 72-76
+8.5
21
vsPITT
PITTL 46-80
−35.5
covered 4didn’t cover 8avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
−13.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−4.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+6.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
+21.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−23.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
+40.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
−11.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
+8.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
+32.5
13
vsMSU
MSUL 72-76
+2.5
21
vsPITT
PITTL 46-80
−20.5
over 6under 6avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
NC Central
0-10 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Longwood72–74
- L@ Kentucky67–103
- Lvs NC A&T54–69
- L@ James Madison62–67
- L@ SC Upstate67–82
A week or more of rest.
Penn State
8-4 overall · 0-2 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Pitt46–80
- Lvs Michigan St72–76
- L@ Indiana72–113
- Wvs Campbell87–76
- Wvs Sacred Heart90–59
A week or more of rest.