Campbell Fighting Camels at Penn State Nittany Lions: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 6:00 PM ETBryce Jordan Center · at Penn State

#243CAMCampbell76final

Final

#78PSUPenn State87▲ winner

Closing linePSU -14.5✓ CAM covered by 3.5

Closing total154.5Over by 8.5

Season records: Campbell and Penn State
CAM	This season	PSU
2-4	Record	7-1
2-4	ATS	3-5
3-3	O/U	3-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CAM 71–84 PSU · ✓ PSU (88%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CAM	39	37	76
PSU	46	41	87

1st half: CAM 39, PSU 46 (PSU by 7). The model had PSU by 7.9 and a total of 72.5 (actual 85).

Team stats

CAM		PSU
29-64 45%	Field goals	30-58 52%
8-23 35%	3-pointers	5-13 38%
10-19 53%	Free throws	22-25 88%
39 15 off	Rebounds	30 6 off
13	Assists	15
3	Steals	13
4	Blocks	5
17	Turnovers	7
19	Fouls	15
40	Points in paint	42
10	Fast-break points	20

Players

CAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
DJ Smith G	36	19	1	3	7-19	5-11
Dovydas Butka F	35	15	9	4	6-8	0-0
Cam Gregory G	34	2	2	1	1-7	0-3
Jeremiah Johnson G	19	12	4	1	3-10	2-5
Muneer Newton F	17	7	7	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Tasos Cook G	25	5	3	2	2-4	0-2
Chris Fields Jr. F	24	11	8	2	5-9	0-0
Enoch Kalambay G	9	5	0	0	2-3	1-2
Broc Bidwell G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Israel Yaw, Klairus Amir, Daniel Marcellinus, Dominykas Butka

PSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kayden Mingo G	30	21	3	4	8-15	0-1
Dominick Stewart G	26	3	3	5	1-6	1-3
Melih Tunca G	26	4	4	4	1-5	0-1
Ivan Juric F	26	16	2	0	5-7	1-3
Josh Reed F	25	16	2	1	5-6	2-3
Bench
Freddie Dilione V G	29	17	4	1	6-8	1-1
Sasa Ciani F	14	4	3	0	1-5	0-0
Tibor Mirtic F	13	6	3	0	3-4	0-0
Eli Rice G	11	0	2	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Justin Houser, Reggie Grodin, Mason Blackwood, Chris Lotito

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PSU -14.5	PSU -13.4	CAM +1.1	W CAM covered
Total	154.5	154.9	Over 0.4	W Over
Projected score	—	CAM 70.8 · PSU 84.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PSU -7.9	PSU -7.0
1H total	72.5	85
1H projected score	CAM 32.3 · PSU 40.2	CAM 39 · PSU 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAM WLLWL	2-4	33%	1-3	1-3
PSU WLLLW	3-5	38%	1-4	3-4

Venue/role: CAM away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAM UOOUU	3-3	50%	2-4
PSU OOUOU	3-5	38%	7-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAMlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
PSUlast 8	7-1 88%	3-5 38%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Campbell

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WIS	L 64-96	+20.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 6	@WVU	L 65-73	+15.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 138
Nov 9	vsWMU	W 91-82	-9.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 19	@WEB	L 85-91	+1.5	L −4.5	159.5	O 176
Nov 21	vsUTA	W 71-67	-1.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 25	@WAKE	L 51-99	+17.5	L −30.5	159.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIS

L 64-96

−11.5

WVU

L 65-73

+7.5

WMU

W 91-82

−0.5

WEB

L 85-91

−4.5

UTA

W 71-67

+2.5

WAKE

L 51-99

−30.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIS

L 64-96

+8.5

WVU

L 65-73

−0.5

WMU

W 91-82

+20.5

WEB

L 85-91

+16.5

UTA

W 71-67

−13.5

WAKE

L 51-99

−9.5

over 3under 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn State

8 games played

Straight up

7-1

88% wins

Against the spread

3-5

38% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-5

38% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-188%

W W W W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-538%

L W L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-538%

U U U O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsLAS	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 19	vsHARV	W 84-80	-12.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPROV	L 65-77	+3.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsBU	W 96-87	-14.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsSHU	W 90-59	-14.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

LAS

W 83-69

+5.5

HARV

W 84-80

−8.5

PROV

L 65-77

−8.5

W 96-87

−5.5

SHU

W 90-59

+16.5

covered 3didn’t cover 5avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

LAS

W 83-69

+6.5

HARV

W 84-80

+21.5

PROV

L 65-77

−23.5

W 96-87

+40.5

SHU

W 90-59

−11.5

over 3under 5avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Campbell Fighting Camels at Penn State Nittany Lions

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Campbell

Penn State

Campbell

Penn State