Sacred Heart Pioneers at Penn State Nittany Lions: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 6:00 PM ETBryce Jordan Center · at Penn State

Final

#78PSUPenn State90▲ winner

Closing linePSU -14.5✓ PSU covered by 16.5

Closing total160.5Under by 11.5

Season records: Sacred Heart and Penn State
SHU	This season	PSU
1-4	Record	6-1
3-2	ATS	2-5
2-3	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SHU 72–89 PSU · ✓ PSU (93%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SHU	20	39	59
PSU	47	43	90

1st half: SHU 20, PSU 47 (PSU by 27). The model had PSU by 9.8 and a total of 75.2 (actual 67).

Team stats

SHU		PSU
20-54 37%	Field goals	32-59 54%
9-24 38%	3-pointers	7-16 44%
10-11 91%	Free throws	19-29 66%
23 6 off	Rebounds	39 12 off
13	Assists	17
12	Steals	15
3	Blocks	3
24	Turnovers	17
21	Fouls	14
20	Points in paint	48
6	Fast-break points	21

Players

SHU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dashon Gittens G	28	15	2	1	4-7	0-3
Yann Farell F	28	6	3	1	2-5	2-2
Jaden Slaughter G	27	2	7	3	0-5	0-0
Anquan Hill F	25	8	0	0	3-9	1-4
Mekhi Conner G	24	2	3	5	1-5	0-3
Bench
Nyle Ralph-Beyer G	24	14	2	1	5-12	4-7
Taj Bryant G	14	0	1	1	0-2	0-0
Abdou Yadd F	12	8	0	0	3-6	2-5
Lucius Gibson-Savadel F	11	4	3	1	2-2	0-0
Fallou Gueye G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Kevin Pikiell, Jeremiah Jacobs, Mooda Gittens, Griffin Barrouk, Alex Woodring, Malik Sheppard

PSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Melih Tunca G	27	12	4	4	4-6	1-1
Kayden Mingo G	26	13	3	5	5-9	1-2
Dominick Stewart G	26	9	3	1	2-9	2-6
Josh Reed F	20	8	3	3	4-6	0-1
Ivan Juric F	20	14	9	0	5-8	0-0
Bench
Freddie Dilione V G	21	10	2	2	4-7	0-2
Tibor Mirtic F	20	8	7	2	3-5	0-0
Eli Rice G	19	11	3	0	4-7	3-4
Sasa Ciani F	16	3	2	0	1-2	0-0
Justin Houser C	3	2	1	0	0-0	0-0
Chris Lotito F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Reggie Grodin, Mason Blackwood

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PSU -14.5	PSU -16.5	PSU +2.0	W PSU covered
Total	160.5	160.8	Over 0.3	L Under
Projected score	—	SHU 72.1 · PSU 88.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PSU -9.8	PSU -27.0
1H total	75.2	67
1H projected score	SHU 32.7 · PSU 42.5	SHU 20 · PSU 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHU WLLWW	3-2	60%	2-2	2-2
PSU LWLLL	2-5	29%	0-4	2-4

Venue/role: SHU away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHU OUUUO	2-3	40%	1-4
PSU UOOUO	3-4	43%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHUlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
PSUlast 7	6-1 86%	2-5 29%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Sacred Heart

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +10.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@DUQ	L 80-92	+12.5	W +0.5	157.5	O 172
Nov 11	@VILL	L 60-94	+19.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 154
Nov 15	@QUC	L 64-81	+5.5	L −11.5	165.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsHC	W 79-66	-7.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 24	@CCSU	L 106-108	+3.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 214

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUQ

L 80-92

+0.5

VILL

L 60-94

−14.5

QUC

L 64-81

−11.5

W 79-66

+5.5

CCSU

L 106-108

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUQ

L 80-92

+14.5

VILL

L 60-94

−6.5

QUC

L 64-81

−20.5

W 79-66

−7.5

CCSU

L 106-108

+70.5

over 2under 3avg +10.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn State

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-529%

L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsLAS	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 19	vsHARV	W 84-80	-12.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPROV	L 65-77	+3.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsBU	W 96-87	-14.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

LAS

W 83-69

+5.5

HARV

W 84-80

−8.5

PROV

L 65-77

−8.5

W 96-87

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

LAS

W 83-69

+6.5

HARV

W 84-80

+21.5

PROV

L 65-77

−23.5

W 96-87

+40.5

over 3under 4avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Sacred Heart Pioneers at Penn State Nittany Lions

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Sacred Heart

Penn State

Sacred Heart

Penn State