Bryce Jordan Center · at Penn State · Conference game
Closing line
MSU -12.5✓ PSU covered by 8.5
MSU -12.5✓ PSU covered by 8.5Closing total145.5Over by 2.5
| MSU | This season | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | Record | 8-2 |
| 5-4 | ATS | 3-7 |
| 2-7 | O/U | 5-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSU 79–68 PSU · ✓ MSU (84%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 36 | 40 | 76 |
| PSU | 39 | 33 | 72 |
1st half: MSU 36, PSU 39 (PSU by 3). The model had MSU by 7.1 and a total of 68.9 (actual 75).
Team stats
| MSU | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-52 46% | Field goals | 28-66 42% |
| 10-18 56% | 3-pointers | 8-29 28% |
| 18-21 86% | Free throws | 8-9 89% |
| 40 11 off | Rebounds | 27 9 off |
| 14 | Assists | 14 |
| 6 | Steals | 10 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Kohler F | 33 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Carson Cooper C | 30 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 2-8 | 0-0 |
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 29 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Coen Carr F | 27 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Divine Ugochukwu G | 27 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 8-10 | 5-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Scott F | 17 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Kur Teng G | 12 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Cam Ward F | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Trey Fort G | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
Did not play: Colin Walton, Brennan Walton, Nick Sanders, Kaleb Glenn
| PSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayden Mingo G | 34 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 5-13 | 1-4 |
| Ivan Juric F | 30 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 4-9 | 2-5 |
| Josh Reed F | 26 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Melih Tunca G | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Dominick Stewart G | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Freddie Dilione V G | 32 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 8-15 | 3-8 |
| Eli Rice G | 24 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Tibor Mirtic F | 18 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Sasa Ciani F | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Mason Blackwood F | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Reggie Grodin, Chris Lotito, Justin Houser
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -11.5
1 → MSU
CloseMSU -12.5
1 pt toward MSU
Total
Open144.5
▲ 1
Close145.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
MSU -850 · PSU +575
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -11.5 · closed MSU -12.5 · moved 1 toward MSUmodel MSU -11.5
model MSU -11.5
Opened 144.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 1 upmodel 147
model 147
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | MSU -12.5 | MSU -11.5 | PSU +1.0 | W PSU covered |
| Total | 145.5 | 147.2 | Over 1.7 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | MSU 79.3 · PSU 67.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | MSU -7.1 | PSU -3.0 |
| 1H total | 68.9 | 75 |
| 1H projected score | MSU 38 · PSU 30.9 | MSU 36 · PSU 39 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSUlast 9 | 8-1 89% | 5-4 56% | 2-7 22% |
| PSU | 8-2 80% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
MSU 5–1 PSUMSU leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · MSU has won the last 4 meetings · MSU 4-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2024-25 | PSU 85 @ MSU 90 | MSU -11.5 | PSU W |
| Feb 14, 2023-24 | MSU 80 @ PSU 72 | PSU +2.5 | MSU W |
| Jan 4, 2023-24 | PSU 61 @ MSU 92 | MSU -13.5 | MSU W |
| Dec 7, 2022-23 | MSU 67 @ PSU 58 | PSU -4.5 | MSU W |
| Feb 15, 2021-22 | MSU 58 @ PSU 62 | PSU +3.5 | PSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Michigan St
9 games played
Straight up
8-1
89% wins
Against the spread
5-4
56% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-7
22% overs · avg −8.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | vs IOWA | W 71-52 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs DUKE | L 60-66 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
+13.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−4.5
covered 5didn’t cover 4avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
2
vsIOWA
IOWAW 71-52
−10.5
6
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-66
−15.5
over 2under 7avg −8.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Penn State
10 games played
Straight up
8-2
80% wins
Against the spread
3-7
30% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-5
50% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FAIR | W 76-68 | -15.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 8 | @ NHVN | W 87-43 | -18.5 | W +25.5 | 143.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 11 | vs NAVY | W 80-71 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs LAS | W 83-69 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 19 | vs HARV | W 84-80 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 142.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PROV | L 65-77 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 25 | vs BU | W 96-87 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 29 | vs SHU | W 90-59 | -14.5 | W +16.5 | 160.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs CAM | W 87-76 | -14.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 9 | @ IU | L 72-113 | +14.5 | L −26.5 | 152.5 | O 185 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
+25.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−2.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+5.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
−8.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−8.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
−5.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
+16.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
−3.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
−26.5
covered 3didn’t cover 7avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
−13.5
11
vsNAVY
NAVYW 80-71
−4.5
15
vsLAS
LASW 83-69
+6.5
19
vsHARV
HARVW 84-80
+21.5
22
vsPROV
PROVL 65-77
−23.5
25
vsBU
BUW 96-87
+40.5
29
vsSHU
SHUW 90-59
−11.5
2
vsCAM
CAMW 87-76
+8.5
9
@IU
IUL 72-113
+32.5
over 5under 5avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Michigan St
8-1 overall · 1-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Duke60–66
- Wvs Iowa71–52
- Wvs North Carolina74–58
- Wvs East Carolina89–56
- Wvs Detroit Mercy84–56
A week or more of rest.
Penn State
8-2 overall · 0-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Indiana72–113
- Wvs Campbell87–76
- Wvs Sacred Heart90–59
- Wvs Boston U96–87
- Lvs Providence65–77
4 days since their last game.