American Airlines Center · Neutral site
Closing line
TTU -2.5✓ ARK covered by 9.5
TTU -2.5✓ ARK covered by 9.5Closing total155.5Over by 23.5
| TTU | This season | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | Record | 7-2 |
| 3-6 | ATS | 6-3 |
| 3-6 | O/U | 3-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TTU 78–76 ARK · ✗ TTU (58%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTU | 49 | 37 | 86 |
| ARK | 43 | 50 | 93 |
1st half: TTU 49, ARK 43 (TTU by 6). The model had TTU by 1.4 and a total of 72.4 (actual 92).
Team stats
| TTU | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 35-69 51% | Field goals | 33-63 52% |
| 13-31 42% | 3-pointers | 10-19 53% |
| 3-10 30% | Free throws | 17-26 65% |
| 33 14 off | Rebounds | 40 16 off |
| 21 | Assists | 18 |
| 4 | Steals | 6 |
| 4 | Blocks | 6 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 18 |
Players
| TTU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JT Toppin F | 40 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 14-22 | 0-1 |
| Christian Anderson G | 40 | 26 | 4 | 11 | 10-17 | 5-11 |
| LeJuan Watts G | 33 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 3-10 | 2-3 |
| Tyeree Bryan G | 32 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3-7 | 2-5 |
| Donovan Atwell G | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylen Petty G | 29 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Did not play: LaTrell Hoover, Luke Bamgboye, Marial Akuentok, Nolan Groves, Leon Horner, Jazz Henderson Jr., Jack Francis, Josiah Moseley
| ARK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karter Knox G | 35 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 8-11 | 3-4 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. G | 34 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 7-14 | 2-5 |
| Trevon Brazile F | 32 | 24 | 10 | 0 | 8-13 | 4-5 |
| DJ Wagner G | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Nick Pringle F | 11 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Meleek Thomas G | 24 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2-8 | 1-4 |
| Malique Ewin F | 18 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Billy Richmond III G | 18 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Elmir Dzafic, Karim Rtail, Paulo Semedo, Ayden Kelley, Jaden Karuletwa, Amere Brown, Isaiah Sealy
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTTU -2.5
ModelTTU -2.2
Model edgeARK +0.3
W ARK covered
Total
Market155.5
Model154.7
Model edgeUnder 0.8
L Over
Projected score
TTU 78.4 · ARK 76.3
TTU 86 · ARK 93
Win probability
TTU 58%
1st half
Spread
TTU -1.4
TTU -6.0
Total
72.4
92 points
Projected score
TTU 36.9 · ARK 35.5
TTU 49 · ARK 43
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTTU -1.5
1 → TTU
CloseTTU -2.5
1 pt toward TTU
Total
Open151.5
▲ 4
Close155.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
TTU -142 · ARK +120
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TTU -1.5 · closed TTU -2.5 · moved 1 toward TTUmodel TTU -2
model TTU -2
Opened 151.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 4 upmodel 154.5
model 154.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTUlast 9 | 7-2 78% | 3-6 33% | 3-6 33% |
| ARKlast 9 | 7-2 78% | 6-3 67% | 3-6 33% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
TTU 1–0 ARKTTU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · TTU 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2024-25 | ARK 83 vs TTU 85 | TTU -5.5 | ARK W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Texas Tech
9 games played
Straight up
7-2
78% wins
Against the spread
3-6
33% covers · avg −4.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-6
33% overs · avg −5.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs LIN | W 98-60 | -29.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 7 | vs SHSU | W 98-77 | -31.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 11 | @ ILL | L 77-81 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs MILW | W 80-63 | -27.5 | L −10.5 | 165.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs WAKE | W 84-83 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs PUR | L 56-86 | +3.5 | L −26.5 | 153.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 26 | vs NOLA | W 82-50 | -29.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 30 | vs WYO | W 76-72 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 7 | vs LSU | W 82-58 | -5.5 | W +18.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsLIN
LINW 98-60
+8.5
7
vsSHSU
SHSUW 98-77
−10.5
11
@ILL
ILLL 77-81
−0.5
14
vsMILW
MILWW 80-63
−10.5
20
vsWAKE
WAKEW 84-83
−8.5
21
vsPUR
PURL 56-86
−26.5
26
vsNOLA
NOLAW 82-50
+2.5
30
vsWYO
WYOW 76-72
−15.5
7
vsLSU
LSUW 82-58
+18.5
covered 3didn’t cover 6avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsLIN
LINW 98-60
+11.5
7
vsSHSU
SHSUW 98-77
+18.5
11
@ILL
ILLL 77-81
−10.5
14
vsMILW
MILWW 80-63
−22.5
20
vsWAKE
WAKEW 84-83
+6.5
21
vsPUR
PURL 56-86
−11.5
26
vsNOLA
NOLAW 82-50
−25.5
30
vsWYO
WYOW 76-72
−4.5
7
vsLSU
LSUW 82-58
−14.5
over 3under 6avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arkansas
9 games played
Straight up
7-2
78% wins
Against the spread
6-3
67% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-6
33% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SOU | W 109-77 | -26.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 186 |
| Nov 8 | @ MSU | L 66-69 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 11 | vs CARK | W 93-56 | -35.5 | W +1.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 14 | vs SAM | W 79-75 | -24.5 | L −20.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | vs WIN | W 84-83 | -23.5 | L −22.5 | 168.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs JKST | W 115-61 | -29.5 | W +24.5 | 159.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 27 | vs DUKE | L 71-80 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 159.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 3 | vs LOU | W 89-80 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 166.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 6 | vs FRES | W 82-58 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+5.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−0.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
+1.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−20.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−22.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+24.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
+3.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+10.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
+4.5
covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSOU
SOUW 109-77
+35.5
8
@MSU
MSUL 66-69
−20.5
11
vsCARK
CARKW 93-56
−9.5
14
vsSAM
SAMW 79-75
−4.5
18
vsWIN
WINW 84-83
−1.5
21
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-61
+16.5
27
vsDUKE
DUKEL 71-80
−8.5
3
vsLOU
LOUW 89-80
+2.5
6
vsFRES
FRESW 82-58
−21.5
over 3under 6avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Texas Tech
7-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs LSU82–58
- Wvs Wyoming76–72
- Wvs LSU N Orleans82–50
- Lvs Purdue56–86
- Wvs Wake Forest84–83
6 days since their last game.
Arkansas
7-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Fresno St82–58
- Wvs Louisville89–80
- Lvs Duke71–80
- Wvs Jackson St115–61
- Wvs Winthrop84–83
A week or more of rest.