Michigan State Spartans vs East Carolina Pirates: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 1:00 PM ETSuncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site

#10MSUMichigan St AP #1189▲ winner

Final

Closing lineMSU -19.5✓ MSU covered by 13.5

Closing total140.5Over by 4.5

Season records: Michigan St and East Carolina
MSU	This season	ECU
5-0	Record	1-3
2-3	ATS	0-4
1-4	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MSU 85–63 ECU · ✓ MSU (97%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MSU	47	42	89
ECU	24	32	56

1st half: MSU 47, ECU 24 (MSU by 23). The model had MSU by 13.4 and a total of 69.1 (actual 71).

Team stats

MSU		ECU
34-67 51%	Field goals	16-48 33%
13-28 46%	3-pointers	6-15 40%
8-12 67%	Free throws	18-26 69%
38 13 off	Rebounds	34 11 off
24	Assists	8
13	Steals	9
8	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	24
22	Fouls	11
36	Points in paint	12
23	Fast-break points	7

Players

MSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jeremy Fears Jr. G	24	6	1	10	2-5	2-4
Coen Carr F	24	13	4	3	5-11	1-3
Jaxon Kohler F	21	16	8	0	6-6	4-4
Carson Cooper C	20	10	9	2	3-4	0-1
Trey Fort G	17	9	2	0	4-10	1-4
Bench
Cam Ward F	18	9	4	1	4-7	0-0
Divine Ugochukwu G	16	16	2	2	6-7	3-4
Kur Teng G	15	3	2	2	1-5	1-3
Jesse McCulloch F	14	2	2	2	1-3	0-0
Jordan Scott F	12	3	0	1	1-5	1-4
Denham Wojcik G	8	0	1	1	0-1	0-0
Brennan Walton F	4	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Nick Sanders G	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Colin Walton F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kaleb Glenn

ECU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Giovanni Emejuru C	34	9	8	0	3-10	0-0
Jordan Riley G	32	13	2	2	4-12	2-4
Tybo Bailey G	31	6	3	1	1-6	1-4
Reid Cason F	25	9	4	1	2-5	0-0
Isaiah Mbeng G	20	3	1	0	1-4	1-3
Bench
Corey Caulker G	33	11	4	4	4-8	1-3
Eli DeLaurier C	17	2	1	0	0-2	0-0
Patrick D'Arcy G	4	3	0	0	1-1	1-1
Vito Perkovic F	4	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jayshayne Woodard, Ladontae Felton, Grant Smith, Trevion LaBeaux, Luke Davis, Daithi Quinn, Jake Baker

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MSU -19.5	MSU -21.9	MSU +2.4	W MSU covered
Total	140.5	147.5	Over 7.0	W Over
Projected score	—	MSU 84.7 · ECU 62.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSU -13.4	MSU -23.0
1H total	69.1	71
1H projected score	MSU 41.2 · ECU 27.8	MSU 47 · ECU 24

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MSU LWLWL	2-3	40%	1-0	1-3
ECU LLLL	0-4	0%	—	0-2

Venue/role: MSU neutral site, as favorite; ECU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU OUUUU	1-4	20%	5-0
ECU OOUU	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSUlast 5	5-0 100%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%
ECUlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Michigan St

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −6.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOLG	W 80-69	-22.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 149
Nov 8	vsARK	W 69-66	-2.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 135
Nov 13	vsSJSU	W 79-60	-24.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 18	vsUK	W 83-66	+3.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsDETM	W 84-56	-30.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COLG

W 80-69

−11.5

ARK

W 69-66

+0.5

SJSU

W 79-60

−5.5

W 83-66

+20.5

DETM

W 84-56

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COLG

W 80-69

+4.5

ARK

W 69-66

−20.5

SJSU

W 79-60

−4.5

W 83-66

−3.5

DETM

W 84-56

−9.5

over 1under 4avg −6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

East Carolina

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −14 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +7.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsGASO	W 92-89	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	@RICH	L 72-87	+5.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 18	@UNCW	L 60-85	+6.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsCHSO	L 65-77	-13.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

−2.5

RICH

L 72-87

−9.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−18.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−25.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

+29.5

RICH

L 72-87

+15.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−0.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−15.5

over 2under 2avg +7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Michigan St vs East Carolina

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Michigan St

East Carolina

Michigan St

East Carolina