Breslin Center · at Michigan St · Conference game
Closing line
MSU -5.5✓ MSU covered by 13.5
MSU -5.5✓ MSU covered by 13.5Closing total133.5Under by 10.5
 IOWA | This season | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | Record | 7-0 |
| 6-1 | ATS | 4-3 |
| 4-3 | O/U | 2-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: IOWA 69–75 MSU · ✓ MSU (69%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 21 | 31 | 52 |
| MSU | 35 | 36 | 71 |
1st half: IOWA 21, MSU 35 (MSU by 14). The model had MSU by 3.4 and a total of 67.5 (actual 56).
Team stats
| IOWA | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 17-45 38% | Field goals | 23-46 50% |
| 7-23 30% | 3-pointers | 3-12 25% |
| 11-17 65% | Free throws | 22-25 88% |
| 18 6 off | Rebounds | 37 13 off |
| 11 | Assists | 13 |
| 7 | Steals | 4 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| IOWA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Stirtz G | 37 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 4-10 | 3-8 |
| Cooper Koch F | 30 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Kael Combs G | 28 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Cam Manyawu F | 22 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Tavion Banks G | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaia Howard G | 21 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1-6 | 1-2 |
| Alvaro Folgueiras F | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Tate Sage G | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Brendan Hausen G | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Trevin Jirak C | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Joey Matteoni F | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jacob Koch, Peyton McCollum, Trey Thompson
| MSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. G | 30 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Jaxon Kohler F | 30 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 5-12 | 0-2 |
| Coen Carr F | 27 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-1 |
| Carson Cooper C | 20 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Kur Teng G | 16 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jordan Scott F | 20 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Jesse McCulloch F | 17 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Divine Ugochukwu G | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Trey Fort G | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Denham Wojcik G | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nick Sanders G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Colin Walton F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brennan Walton F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cam Ward, Kaleb Glenn
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMSU -5.5
ModelMSU -5.8
Model edgeMSU +0.3
W MSU covered
Total
Market133.5
Model144.1
Model edgeOver 10.6
L Under
Projected score
IOWA 69.1 · MSU 74.9
IOWA 52 · MSU 71
Win probability
MSU 69%
1st half
Spread
MSU -3.4
MSU -14.0
Total
67.5
56 points
Projected score
IOWA 32.1 · MSU 35.4
IOWA 21 · MSU 35
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMSU -5.5
no move
CloseMSU -5.5
No change since the open
Total
Open135.5
▼ 2
Close133.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
IOWA +205 · MSU -250
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MSU -5.5 · unchangedmodel MSU -6
model MSU -6
Opened 135.5 · closed 133.5 · moved 2 downmodel 144
model 144
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IOWAlast 7 | 7-0 100% | 6-1 86% | 4-3 57% |
| MSUlast 7 | 7-0 100% | 4-3 57% | 2-5 29% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
IOWA 3–2 MSUIOWA leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · IOWA 4-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2024-25 | MSU 91 @ IOWA 84 | IOWA +6.5 | MSU W |
| Feb 20, 2023-24 | IOWA 78 @ MSU 71 | MSU -9.5 | IOWA W |
| Feb 25, 2022-23 | MSU 106 @ IOWA 112 | IOWA -5.5 | IOWA W |
| Jan 26, 2022-23 | IOWA 61 @ MSU 63 | MSU -2.5 | IOWA W |
| Feb 22, 2021-22 | MSU 60 @ IOWA 86 | IOWA -5.5 | IOWA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Iowa
7 games played
Straight up
7-0
100% wins
Against the spread
6-1
86% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs RMU | W 101-69 | -22.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 7 | vs WIU | W 77-58 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 14 | vs XAV | W 81-62 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs SEMO | W 99-70 | -23.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 20 | vs CHST | W 93-54 | -31.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 25 | vs MISS | W 74-69 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs GCU | W 59-46 | -8.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 105 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+9.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−11.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
+3.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+5.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+7.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+0.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
+4.5
covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+33.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−10.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
−0.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+21.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+4.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+2.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
−38.5
over 4under 3avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Michigan St
7 games played
Straight up
7-0
100% wins
Against the spread
4-3
57% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-5
29% overs · avg −7.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs COLG | W 80-69 | -22.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 8 | vs ARK | W 69-66 | -2.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 13 | vs SJSU | W 79-60 | -24.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 18 | vs UK | W 83-66 | +3.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs DETM | W 84-56 | -30.5 | L −2.5 | 149.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 25 | vs ECU | W 89-56 | -19.5 | W +13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs UNC | W 74-58 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
−11.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
+0.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−5.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
+20.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−2.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+13.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
+14.5
covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCOLG
COLGW 80-69
+4.5
8
vsARK
ARKW 69-66
−20.5
13
vsSJSU
SJSUW 79-60
−4.5
18
vsUK
UKW 83-66
−3.5
21
vsDETM
DETMW 84-56
−9.5
25
vsECU
ECUW 89-56
+4.5
27
vsUNC
UNCW 74-58
−20.5
over 2under 5avg −7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Iowa
7-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Grand Canyon59–46
- Wvs Ole Miss74–69
- Wvs Chicago St93–54
- Wvs SE Missouri99–70
- Wvs Xavier81–62
6 days since their last game.
Michigan St
7-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs North Carolina74–58
- Wvs East Carolina89–56
- Wvs Detroit Mercy84–56
- Wvs Kentucky83–66
- Wvs San José St79–60
5 days since their last game.