Iowa Hawkeyes vs Grand Canyon Lopes: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 9:30 PM ETAcrisure Arena · Neutral site

#43IOWAIowa59▲ winner

Final

Closing lineIOWA -8.5✓ IOWA covered by 4.5

Closing total143.5Under by 38.5

Season records: Iowa and Grand Canyon
IOWA	This season	GCU
6-0	Record	4-2
5-1	ATS	3-3
4-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: IOWA 82–72 GCU · ✓ IOWA (80%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
IOWA	30	29	59
GCU	23	23	46

1st half: IOWA 30, GCU 23 (IOWA by 7). The model had IOWA by 6.0 and a total of 71.9 (actual 53).

Team stats

IOWA		GCU
19-47 40%	Field goals	17-42 40%
6-19 32%	3-pointers	5-16 31%
15-22 68%	Free throws	7-9 78%
32 10 off	Rebounds	24 4 off
11	Assists	8
7	Steals	4
2	Blocks	4
12	Turnovers	19
14	Fouls	17
22	Points in paint	22
3	Fast-break points	0

Players

IOWA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Bennett Stirtz G	40	13	2	5	5-15	1-7
Cooper Koch F	37	11	6	2	2-6	2-4
Kael Combs G	36	6	5	3	3-6	0-2
Cam Manyawu F	23	7	3	1	2-3	0-0
Tavion Banks G	20	2	2	0	0-4	0-0
Bench
Isaia Howard G	29	19	6	0	7-10	3-5
Alvaro Folgueiras F	11	1	2	0	0-2	0-1
Tate Sage G	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Brendan Hausen, Trevin Jirak, Trey Thompson, Peyton McCollum, Joey Matteoni, Jacob Koch

GCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jaden Henley G	33	16	4	2	6-11	2-3
Nana Owusu-Anane F	27	2	6	0	0-8	0-5
Brian Moore Jr. G	26	7	1	2	3-6	0-0
Makaih Williams G	21	7	0	1	3-4	1-2
Wilhelm Breidenbach F	16	0	2	1	0-1	0-0
Bench
Dusty Stromer G	26	7	2	0	2-6	1-3
Efe Demirel C	23	4	6	1	2-3	0-0
Caleb Shaw G	17	3	0	1	1-3	1-3
Kaleb Smith F	10	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Dennis Evans C	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Evan Boisdur, Cole Pepe, Luke Shaw, Braylon Johnson, Jack Sawyer

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	IOWA -8.5	IOWA -9.6	IOWA +1.1	W IOWA covered
Total	143.5	153.5	Over 10.0	L Under
Projected score	—	IOWA 81.5 · GCU 72

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IOWA -6.0	IOWA -7.0
1H total	71.9	53
1H projected score	IOWA 38.9 · GCU 33	IOWA 30 · GCU 23

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
IOWA LWWWW	5-1	83%	1-0	5-1
GCU LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: IOWA neutral site, as favorite; GCU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UUOOO	4-2	67%	6-0
GCU OUUOU	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWAlast 6	6-0 100%	5-1 83%	4-2 67%
GCUlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Iowa

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-183%

W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsRMU	W 101-69	-22.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 170
Nov 7	vsWIU	W 77-58	-30.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 135
Nov 14	vsXAV	W 81-62	-15.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsSEMO	W 99-70	-23.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 169
Nov 20	vsCHST	W 93-54	-31.5	W +7.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 25	vsMISS	W 74-69	-4.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RMU

W 101-69

+9.5

WIU

W 77-58

−11.5

XAV

W 81-62

+3.5

SEMO

W 99-70

+5.5

CHST

W 93-54

+7.5

MISS

W 74-69

+0.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RMU

W 101-69

+33.5

WIU

W 77-58

−10.5

XAV

W 81-62

−0.5

SEMO

W 99-70

+21.5

CHST

W 93-54

+4.5

MISS

W 74-69

+2.5

over 4under 2avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grand Canyon

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsPFW	W 90-71	-14.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 161
Nov 7	vsYSU	L 81-90	-15.5	L −24.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 10	vsNIU	W 88-59	-22.5	W +6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 15	@SLU	L 64-78	+8.5	L −5.5	167.5	U 142
Nov 21	vsNWST	W 85-72	-18.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsUTAH	W 68-58	-5.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 126

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PFW

W 90-71

+4.5

YSU

L 81-90

−24.5

NIU

W 88-59

+6.5

SLU

L 64-78

−5.5

NWST

W 85-72

−5.5

UTAH

W 68-58

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PFW

W 90-71

+5.5

YSU

L 81-90

+18.5

NIU

W 88-59

−16.5

SLU

L 64-78

−25.5

NWST

W 85-72

+9.5

UTAH

W 68-58

−27.5

over 3under 3avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Grand Canyon Lopes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Iowa

Grand Canyon

Iowa

Grand Canyon