Tennessee Volunteers at Syracuse Orange: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETJMA Wireless Dome · at Syracuse

#7TENNTennessee AP #1360final

Final

#63SYRSyracuse62▲ winner

Closing lineTENN -7.5✓ SYR covered by 9.5

Closing total147.5Under by 25.5

Season records: Tennessee and Syracuse
TENN	This season	SYR
7-1	Record	4-3
3-5	ATS	4-3
6-2	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TENN 78–71 SYR · ✗ TENN (72%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TENN	30	30	60
SYR	32	30	62

1st half: TENN 30, SYR 32 (SYR by 2). The model had TENN by 4.2 and a total of 69.9 (actual 62).

Team stats

TENN		SYR
24-58 41%	Field goals	22-51 43%
4-13 31%	3-pointers	5-19 26%
8-15 53%	Free throws	13-22 59%
38 13 off	Rebounds	33 9 off
16	Assists	7
9	Steals	10
2	Blocks	8
17	Turnovers	16
20	Fouls	14
40	Points in paint	28
0	Fast-break points	9

Players

TENN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ja'Kobi Gillespie G	32	10	2	7	5-12	0-3
Nate Ament F	30	11	6	2	2-10	1-3
Felix Okpara F	22	2	6	0	1-6	0-1
Bishop Boswell G	21	5	0	0	2-3	1-1
Cade Phillips F	12	0	1	1	0-1	0-0
Bench
Jaylen Carey F	23	22	9	1	10-16	0-0
DeWayne Brown II F	22	4	5	3	2-4	0-0
Amaree Abram G	22	6	2	0	2-4	2-4
Ethan Burg G	7	0	1	1	0-1	0-1
Amari Evans G	6	0	4	0	0-1	0-0
Troy Henderson G	3	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Campbell Duncan, Gavin Paull, Clarence Massamba, Grant Hurst, J.P. Estrella

SYR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nate Kingz G	36	19	7	0	6-10	2-6
Naithan George G	35	2	2	3	1-7	0-2
William Kyle III F	35	10	7	0	3-6	0-0
J.J. Starling G	33	12	3	2	5-10	1-4
Sadiq White Jr. F	26	10	9	0	4-10	1-2
Bench
Kiyan Anthony G	17	7	1	2	2-5	1-3
Tyler Betsey F	14	2	2	0	1-3	0-2
Akir Souare F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Noah Lobdell, Tiefing Diawara, Luke Fennell, Aaron Womack III, Donnie Freeman, Bryce Zephir

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TENN -7.5	TENN -6.7	SYR +0.8	W SYR covered
Total	147.5	149.2	Over 1.7	L Under
Projected score	—	TENN 77.9 · SYR 71.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TENN -4.2	SYR -2.0
1H total	69.9	62
1H projected score	TENN 37 · SYR 32.9	TENN 30 · SYR 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN LLWWL	3-5	38%	—	2-5
SYR WLWLL	4-3	57%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: TENN away, as favorite; SYR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN OUOOO	6-2	75%	7-1
SYR UOOUO	3-4	43%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENNlast 8	7-1 88%	3-5 38%	6-2 75%
SYRlast 7	4-3 57%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TENN 2–0 SYRTENN leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · TENN has won the last 2 meetings · TENN 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 3, 2024-25	SYR 70 @ TENN 96	TENN -22.5	TENN W
Nov 20, 2023-24	TENN 73 vs SYR 56	SYR +12.5	TENN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tennessee

8 games played

Straight up

7-1

88% wins

Against the spread

3-5

38% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-2

75% overs · avg +6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-188%

W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-538%

L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-275%

U O O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMER	W 76-61	-28.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsNKU	W 95-56	-27.5	W +11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	vsUNF	W 99-66	-41.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 165
Nov 17	vsRICE	W 91-66	-26.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 20	vsTNST	W 89-60	-31.5	L −2.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 24	vsRUTG	W 85-60	-14.5	W +10.5	141.5	O 145
Nov 25	vsHOU	W 76-73	+2.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 26	vsKU	L 76-81	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MER

W 76-61

−13.5

NKU

W 95-56

+11.5

UNF

W 99-66

−8.5

RICE

W 91-66

−1.5

TNST

W 89-60

−2.5

RUTG

W 85-60

+10.5

HOU

W 76-73

+5.5

L 76-81

−12.5

covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MER

W 76-61

−6.5

NKU

W 95-56

+13.5

UNF

W 99-66

+9.5

RICE

W 91-66

+13.5

TNST

W 89-60

−8.5

RUTG

W 85-60

+3.5

HOU

W 76-73

+12.5

L 76-81

+16.5

over 6under 2avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Syracuse

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −7.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

U U U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBING	W 85-47	-21.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsDSU	W 83-43	-26.5	W +13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 15	vsDREX	W 80-50	-11.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsMONM	W 78-73	-21.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 151
Nov 24	vsHOU	L 74-78	+14.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsKU	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsISU	L 64-95	+10.5	L −20.5	145.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BING

W 85-47

+16.5

DSU

W 83-43

+13.5

DREX

W 80-50

+18.5

MONM

W 78-73

−16.5

HOU

L 74-78

+10.5

L 60-71

−6.5

ISU

L 64-95

−20.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BING

W 85-47

−21.5

DSU

W 83-43

−31.5

DREX

W 80-50

−13.5

MONM

W 78-73

+5.5

HOU

L 74-78

+11.5

L 60-71

−13.5

ISU

L 64-95

+13.5

over 3under 4avg −7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tennessee Volunteers at Syracuse Orange

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Tennessee

Syracuse

Tennessee

Syracuse