New Mexico State Aggies vs South Alabama Jaguars: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETLeonard E. Merrell Center · Neutral site

Final

Closing lineNMSU -2.5✓ USA covered by 4.5

Closing total135.5Over by 16.5

Season records: New Mexico St and South Alabama
NMSU	This season	USA
4-0	Record	6-1
4-0	ATS	3-4
2-2	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NMSU 71–66 USA · ✗ NMSU (66%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NMSU	36	39	75
USA	32	45	77

1st half: NMSU 36, USA 32 (NMSU by 4). The model had NMSU by 3.0 and a total of 64.2 (actual 68).

Team stats

NMSU		USA
28-66 42%	Field goals	20-45 44%
9-37 24%	3-pointers	5-13 38%
10-13 77%	Free throws	32-39 82%
41 18 off	Rebounds	27 5 off
18	Assists	12
6	Steals	9
3	Blocks	3
13	Turnovers	7
25	Fouls	14
26	Points in paint	26
14	Fast-break points	7

Players

NMSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jemel Jones G	30	17	9	4	7-16	1-7
Anthony Wrzeszcz G	25	4	2	4	1-4	0-3
Gabe Pickens G	21	2	3	3	1-5	0-4
Julius Mims F	18	2	2	0	1-3	0-0
Cyr Malonga C	12	1	2	1	0-0	0-0
Bench
Jayland Randall G	27	21	2	0	8-17	2-9
Jae'Coby Osborne F	20	2	5	2	1-2	0-0
Elijah Elliott G	17	18	0	3	6-12	6-12
Augustine Ekwe C	13	2	3	0	1-2	0-0
Kyrese Mullen F	10	2	5	0	0-1	0-0
Chris Terrell G	7	4	1	1	2-4	0-2

Did not play: Omarr Smith, Amarco Doyle, Teysean Eaglestaff, Christian Villegas

USA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Adam Olsen F	39	21	2	1	6-10	3-6
Peyton Law F	35	18	5	4	6-13	0-0
Randy Brady F	34	8	7	2	1-2	1-2
Jayden Cooper G	31	5	3	1	2-5	1-2
Chaze Harris G	29	17	2	4	3-7	0-0
Bench
Brian Hawthorne G	12	4	0	0	1-3	0-0
JJ Wheat G	8	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Hantz Louis-Jeune G	7	0	1	0	0-3	0-3
Stephen Williams F	5	2	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Desmond Williams, Samuel Shoptaw, Maxwell Land, John Broom

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NMSU -2.5	NMSU -4.7	NMSU +2.2	L USA covered
Total	135.5	137.1	Over 1.6	W Over
Projected score	—	NMSU 70.9 · USA 66.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NMSU -3.0	NMSU -4.0
1H total	64.2	68
1H projected score	NMSU 33.6 · USA 30.6	NMSU 36 · USA 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NMSU WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	2-0
USA LLWLW	3-4	43%	0-2	2-1

Venue/role: NMSU neutral site, as favorite; USA neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU OOUU	2-2	50%	4-0
USA UOOOU	4-3	57%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSUlast 4	4-0 100%	4-0 100%	2-2 50%
USAlast 7	6-1 86%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

New Mexico St

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

4-0

100% covers · avg +8.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 15	vsUNM	W 76-68	+3.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 21	vsSAM	W 81-72	-8.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 25	vsUCI	W 57-45	+2.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 102
Nov 26	vsGAST	W 77-58	-12.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNM

W 76-68

+11.5

SAM

W 81-72

+0.5

UCI

W 57-45

+14.5

GAST

W 77-58

+6.5

covered 4didn’t cover 0avg +8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNM

W 76-68

+4.5

SAM

W 81-72

+7.5

UCI

W 57-45

−37.5

GAST

W 77-58

−1.5

over 2under 2avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Alabama

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TOL	W 76-74	+2.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 6	vsALCN	W 76-70	-18.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 13	vsCMU	W 66-64	-5.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsCOPP	W 72-62	-18.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 134
Nov 19	@JXST	W 71-65	+2.5	W +8.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 21	@UAB	L 72-80	+7.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 30	@UTSA	W 82-58	-1.5	W +22.5	141.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOL

W 76-74

+4.5

ALCN

W 76-70

−12.5

CMU

W 66-64

−3.5

COPP

W 72-62

−8.5

JXST

W 71-65

+8.5

UAB

L 72-80

−0.5

UTSA

W 82-58

+22.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOL

W 76-74

−0.5

ALCN

W 76-70

+4.5

CMU

W 66-64

−12.5

COPP

W 72-62

+0.5

JXST

W 71-65

+0.5

UAB

L 72-80

+2.5

UTSA

W 82-58

−1.5

over 4under 3avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

New Mexico State Aggies vs South Alabama Jaguars

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

New Mexico St

South Alabama

New Mexico St

South Alabama