Tennessee State Tigers vs Florida A&M Rattlers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 6:00 PM ETCareFirst Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Tennessee St and Florida A&M
TNST	This season	FAMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TNST 78–72 · win probability TNST 70%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TNST has more of the edges

TNST 4, FAMU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TNSTSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TNST 16.7%, FAMU 21.5%. Forced: TNST 19.8%, FAMU 19.1%

TNSTSmall

TNST offense vs FAMU defense

Offense 207th of 366 against a defense 303rd, on the model’s ratings

FAMUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TNST 33.4, FAMU 37.4. Allowed: TNST 41.4, FAMU 39.6

TNSTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TNST 34.8%, FAMU 30.9%. Defensive: TNST 69.4%, FAMU 69.1%

FAMUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TNST 10%, FAMU 43%. Transfers in: TNST 7, FAMU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

TNSTSmall

Three-pointers

TNST hits 33.3% and allows 34.0%; FAMU hits 32.6% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 30.7% and 37.7% of their shots

Even

FAMU offense vs TNST defense

Offense 326th of 366 against a defense 290th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

TNST has played the 345th-hardest schedule, FAMU the 323rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TNST 50.0 and allows 51.6; FAMU 49.2 and allows 51.2

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: TNST plays 71.1 a game (66th fastest), FAMU 70.6 (92nd). Faster games mean more points

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TNST -5.9	—
Total	—	149.1	—
Projected score	—	TNST 77.5 · FAMU 71.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TNST -3.6	—
1H total	69.7	—
1H projected score	TNST 36.7 · FAMU 33.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TNST WWWWL	18-12	60%	2-1	—
FAMU WWWWL	16-13	55%	1-1	—

Venue/role: TNST neutral site; FAMU neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TNST UUUOO	14-16	47%	20-10
FAMU OUOUO	11-18	38%	13-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TNST	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
FAMU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 11	@ WIU	W83–56WU

Florida A&M

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ TLSA	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ SLU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tennessee St

30 games played

Straight up

20-10

67% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1067%

L L L W W L W W L W W W L W W L W W L W W W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1260%

W L W W W L W W L W W W L L L L W W L L W L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1647%

O O U U U U U O O O O O U O U U O U O U U U O O U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@BEL	L 79-87	+13.5	W +5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 16	@WKU	L 82-95	+12.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 20	@TENN	L 60-89	+31.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 25	@UNCA	W 75-73	+5.5	W +7.5	164.5	U 148
Nov 30	@UTC	W 70-64	+8.5	W +14.5	155.5	U 134
Dec 3	@AAMU	L 53-80	-4.5	L −31.5	147.5	U 133
Dec 13	@UNLV	W 63-60	+12.5	W +15.5	161.5	U 123
Dec 18	vsUTM	W 78-71	-2.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 149
Dec 20	vsSEMO	L 82-91	+1.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 173
Dec 30	@TNTC	W 88-76	-1.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 164
Jan 3	@LR	W 84-79	-1.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 163
Jan 8	@WIU	W 90-68	-6.5	W +15.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 10	@EIU	L 70-74	-3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 15	vsMORE	W 105-100	-7.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 205
Jan 17	vsUSI	W 73-67	-8.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 140
Jan 22	@SIUE	L 66-74	+1.5	L −6.5	142.5	U 140
Jan 24	@LIN	W 96-86	+4.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 29	vsLR	W 70-63	-4.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Feb 2	vsTNTC	L 85-90	-7.5	L −12.5	153.5	O 175
Feb 5	vsEIU	W 77-68	-9.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 7	vsWIU	W 83-56	-15.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 12	@USI	W 73-71	-6.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 14	@MORE	L 86-94	-1.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 180
Feb 19	vsLIN	W 89-80	-3.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 21	vsSIUE	W 80-53	-2.5	W +24.5	143.5	U 133
Feb 26	@SEMO	W 79-71	+2.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 150
Feb 28	@UTM	W 67-42	+2.5	W +27.5	143.5	U 109
Mar 6	vsUTM	W 68-55	-1.5	W +11.5	137.5	U 123
Mar 7	vsMORE	W 93-67	-5.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 160
Mar 20	vsISU	L 74-108	+24.5	L −9.5	147.5	O 182

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BEL

L 79-87

+5.5

WKU

L 82-95

−0.5

TENN

L 60-89

+2.5

UNCA

W 75-73

+7.5

UTC

W 70-64

+14.5

AAMU

L 53-80

−31.5

UNLV

W 63-60

+15.5

UTM

W 78-71

+4.5

SEMO

L 82-91

−7.5

TNTC

W 88-76

+10.5

W 84-79

+3.5

WIU

W 90-68

+15.5

EIU

L 70-74

−7.5

W 105-100

−2.5

USI

W 73-67

−2.5

SIUE

L 66-74

−6.5

LIN

W 96-86

+14.5

W 70-63

+2.5

TNTC

L 85-90

−12.5

EIU

W 77-68

−0.5

WIU

W 83-56

+11.5

USI

W 73-71

−4.5

L 86-94

−9.5

LIN

W 89-80

+5.5

SIUE

W 80-53

+24.5

SEMO

W 79-71

+10.5

UTM

W 67-42

+27.5

UTM

W 68-55

+11.5

W 93-67

+20.5

ISU

L 74-108

−9.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BEL

L 79-87

+7.5

WKU

L 82-95

+9.5

TENN

L 60-89

−8.5

UNCA

W 75-73

−16.5

UTC

W 70-64

−21.5

AAMU

L 53-80

−14.5

UNLV

W 63-60

−38.5

UTM

W 78-71

+7.5

SEMO

L 82-91

+21.5

TNTC

W 88-76

+8.5

W 84-79

+18.5

WIU

W 90-68

+12.5

EIU

L 70-74

−0.5

W 105-100

+56.5

USI

W 73-67

−10.5

SIUE

L 66-74

−2.5

LIN

W 96-86

+21.5

W 70-63

−17.5

TNTC

L 85-90

+21.5

EIU

W 77-68

−0.5

WIU

W 83-56

−12.5

USI

W 73-71

−3.5

L 86-94

+31.5

LIN

W 89-80

+9.5

SIUE

W 80-53

−10.5

SEMO

W 79-71

−1.5

UTM

W 67-42

−34.5

UTM

W 68-55

−14.5

W 93-67

+16.5

ISU

L 74-108

+34.5

over 14under 16avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Florida A&M

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

16-13

55% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-18

38% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

L L L L L W L L L L W W W W W L L L L W L W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1355%

L L L W W W L W L W W W W W L L L L L W L W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1838%

O U U U O U U U O O U O U U U U U O U O U O U U O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@USF	L 67-102	+25.5	L −9.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 8	vsKENN	L 72-92	+11.5	L −8.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 11	@UCF	L 60-97	+23.5	L −13.5	169.5	U 157
Nov 17	@UGA	L 57-87	+40.5	W +10.5	170.5	U 144
Dec 2	@JAX	L 82-85	+10.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 167
Dec 17	vsJAX	W 72-65	+3.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 137
Dec 19	@TAR	L 54-78	+14.5	L −9.5	145.5	U 132
Dec 21	@TCU	L 56-80	+29.5	W +5.5	142.5	U 136
Dec 28	@GT	L 65-89	+19.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 3	@BCU	L 83-87	+7.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsSOU	W 67-59	+4.5	W +12.5	153.5	U 126
Jan 12	vsGRAM	W 91-84	+1.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 175
Jan 17	@UAPB	W 71-67	+2.5	W +6.5	149.5	U 138
Jan 19	@MVSU	W 62-48	-11.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 110
Jan 24	vsALCN	W 66-58	-8.5	L −0.5	141.5	U 124
Jan 26	vsJKST	L 65-66	-7.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 131
Jan 31	@AAMU	L 65-72	+3.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 2	@ALST	L 66-79	+3.5	L −9.5	139.5	O 145
Feb 7	vsTXSO	L 57-62	-1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 119
Feb 9	vsPV	W 100-96	-3.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 196
Feb 14	@JKST	L 60-80	-2.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 140
Feb 16	@ALCN	W 86-78	-2.5	W +5.5	137.5	O 164
Feb 19	vsAAMU	L 61-63	-1.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 124
Feb 21	vsALST	W 76-63	+1.5	W +14.5	144.5	U 139
Feb 26	@SOU	W 82-71	+8.5	W +19.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 28	@GRAM	W 66-59	+4.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 125
Mar 5	vsBCU	W 81-77	+2.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 158
Mar 11	vsJKST	W 70-60	-6.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 130
Mar 13	vsSOU	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USF

L 67-102

−9.5

KENN

L 72-92

−8.5

UCF

L 60-97

−13.5

UGA

L 57-87

+10.5

JAX

L 82-85

+7.5

JAX

W 72-65

+10.5

TAR

L 54-78

−9.5

TCU

L 56-80

+5.5

L 65-89

−4.5

BCU

L 83-87

+3.5

SOU

W 67-59

+12.5

GRAM

W 91-84

+8.5

UAPB

W 71-67

+6.5

MVSU

W 62-48

+2.5

ALCN

W 66-58

−0.5

JKST

L 65-66

−8.5

AAMU

L 65-72

−3.5

ALST

L 66-79

−9.5

TXSO

L 57-62

−6.5

W 100-96

+0.5

JKST

L 60-80

−22.5

ALCN

W 86-78

+5.5

AAMU

L 61-63

−3.5

ALST

W 76-63

+14.5

SOU

W 82-71

+19.5

GRAM

W 66-59

+11.5

BCU

W 81-77

+6.5

JKST

W 70-60

+3.5

SOU

L 70-73

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 13avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USF

L 67-102

+15.5

KENN

L 72-92

−2.5

UCF

L 60-97

−12.5

UGA

L 57-87

−26.5

JAX

L 82-85

+28.5

JAX

W 72-65

−2.5

TAR

L 54-78

−13.5

TCU

L 56-80

−6.5

L 65-89

+7.5

BCU

L 83-87

+24.5

SOU

W 67-59

−27.5

GRAM

W 91-84

+33.5

UAPB

W 71-67

−11.5

MVSU

W 62-48

−29.5

ALCN

W 66-58

−17.5

JKST

L 65-66

−19.5

AAMU

L 65-72

−1.5

ALST

L 66-79

+5.5

TXSO

L 57-62

−27.5

W 100-96

+46.5

JKST

L 60-80

−4.5

ALCN

W 86-78

+26.5

AAMU

L 61-63

−15.5

ALST

W 76-63

−5.5

SOU

W 82-71

+5.5

GRAM

W 66-59

−15.5

BCU

W 81-77

+12.5

JKST

W 70-60

−11.5

SOU

L 70-73

+1.5

over 11under 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tennessee St has the better starters

Position by position: Tennessee St 2, Florida A&M 0, even 3

Tennessee StBetterFlorida A&M

G T. Johnson TR15 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 85

TNSTBig

G J. Kempson TR10.7 pts · 4.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 33

G A. Morris TR11.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 30

Even

G J. Sanders12 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 42

G C. Alston TR4.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42

Even

G A. Baker9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

F A. Bradshaw TR8.6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 79

TNSTBig

G R. Martino6.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44

F J. Rivera TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47

No call

F D. Williford TR2.2 pts · 0.8 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

Tennessee StBetterFlorida A&M

TNST offense207th of 366 · -6.3

TNSTSmall

FAMU defense303rd of 366 · -7.8

TNST defense290th of 366 · -7.3

Even

FAMU offense326th of 366 · -10.6

Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players

TNSTBig

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

Frontcourt+1.0 · 2 players

TNSTSmall

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

FAMUSmall

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestTNST betterFAMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Tennessee St

Guards

T. Johnson29 min · TRA. Morris28 min · TRC. Alston11 min · TRD. Howard8 minI. Stewart4 min · TRJ. Jones3 min

Forwards

A. Bradshaw19 min · TRJ. Rivera12 min · TRK. Jones11 minD. LindseyNew

Florida A&M

Guards

J. Kempson32 min · TRJ. Sanders32 minA. Baker27 minR. Martino22 minC. DavisNewA. WilliamsNew

Forwards

D. Williford6 min · TRT. Onuoha5 minM. StijovicNewJ. LomickaNewB. NdourNew

Centers

A. Mbaye1 min · TRJ. MokwezaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TNST77.9 #96

FAMU70.0 #285

Points per possession

TNST1.10 #146

FAMU0.99 #334

Pace (possessions)

TNST71.1 #66

FAMU70.6 #92

Shooting

Effective FG%

TNST50.0 #237

FAMU49.2 #283

3-point %

TNST33.3 #211

FAMU32.6 #249

3-point attempt rate

TNST30.7 #344

FAMU37.7 #219

Free throw rate

TNST33.4 #228

FAMU37.4 #116

Possessions

Turnover rate

TNST16.7 #177

FAMU21.5 #359

Offensive rebound rate

TNST34.8 #53

FAMU30.9 #168

Assists per game

TNST12.7 #237

FAMU12.7 #236

Defense

Points allowed

TNST75.1 #191

FAMU75.1 #192

Points allowed per possession

TNST1.06 #97

FAMU1.06 #114

Opponent effective FG%

TNST51.6 #190

FAMU51.2 #171

Opponent 3-point %

TNST34.0 #183

FAMU34.9 #243

Turnovers forced

TNST19.8 #26

FAMU19.1 #43

Defensive rebound rate

TNST69.4 #184

FAMU69.1 #198

Steals per game

TNST9.0 #10

FAMU8.1 #35

Blocks per game

TNST3.8 #99

FAMU3.0 #220

TNST		FAMU
Scoring
77.9 #96	Points per game	70.0 #285
1.10 #146	Points per possession	0.99 #334
71.1 #66	Pace (possessions)	70.6 #92
Shooting
50.0 #237	Effective FG%	49.2 #283
33.3 #211	3-point %	32.6 #249
30.7 #344	3-point attempt rate	37.7 #219
33.4 #228	Free throw rate	37.4 #116
Possessions
16.7 #177	Turnover rate	21.5 #359
34.8 #53	Offensive rebound rate	30.9 #168
12.7 #237	Assists per game	12.7 #236
Defense
75.1 #191	Points allowed	75.1 #192
1.06 #97	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #114
51.6 #190	Opponent effective FG%	51.2 #171
34.0 #183	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #243
19.8 #26	Turnovers forced	19.1 #43
69.4 #184	Defensive rebound rate	69.1 #198
9.0 #10	Steals per game	8.1 #35
3.8 #99	Blocks per game	3.0 #220

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tennessee St

20-10 in 2025-26 overall · 17-5 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa State74–108
Wvs Morehead St93–67
Wvs UT Martin68–55
W@ UT Martin67–42
W@ SE Missouri79–71

A week or more of rest.

Florida A&M

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Southern70–73
Wvs Jackson St70–60
Wvs Bethune81–77
W@ Grambling66–59
W@ Southern82–71

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee State Tigers vs Florida A&M Rattlers

What could decide it: TNST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Tennessee St

Florida A&M

Tennessee St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Tennessee St

Florida A&M