Tennessee State Tigers at Western Illinois Leathernecks: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Dec 11, 7:30 PM ETWestern Hall · at W Illinois · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Tennessee St and W Illinois
TNST	This season	WIU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TNST 80–68 · win probability TNST 87%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TNST has more of the edges

TNST 6, WIU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TNSTBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TNST 34.8%, WIU 27.0%. Defensive: TNST 69.4%, WIU 65.2%

TNSTBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TNST 16.7%, WIU 17.5%. Forced: TNST 19.8%, WIU 14.9%

TNSTBig

TNST offense vs WIU defense

Offense 207th of 366 against a defense 362nd, on the model’s ratings

WIUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: TNST 33.4, WIU 37.7. Allowed: TNST 41.4, WIU 34.8

TNSTBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: TNST 50.0 and allows 51.6; WIU 44.5 and allows 54.2

TNSTSmall

Three-pointers

TNST hits 33.3% and allows 34.0%; WIU hits 30.9% and allows 35.6%. Threes are 30.7% and 33.3% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: TNST plays 71.1 a game (66th fastest), WIU 67.6 (246th). Faster games mean more points

TNSTSmall

WIU offense vs TNST defense

Offense 365th of 366 against a defense 290th, on the model’s ratings

WIUSmall

Home court

WIU at home. This season: WIU 0-0 at home, TNST 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TNST 10%, WIU 21%. Transfers in: TNST 7, WIU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

TNST has played the 345th-hardest schedule, WIU the 361st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TNST -12.8	—
Total	—	147.9	—
Projected score	—	TNST 80.3 · WIU 67.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TNST -7.7	—
1H total	69.2	—
1H projected score	TNST 38.5 · WIU 30.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TNST WWWWL	18-12	60%	11-6	—
WIU LLLLL	11-17	39%	3-9	—

Venue/role: TNST away; WIU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TNST UUUOO	14-16	47%	20-10
WIU UOUUO	13-15	46%	2-26

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TNST	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
WIU	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee St

No more games listed yet.

W Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ IOWA	L58–77WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

TNST 5–2 WIUTNST leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · TNST has won the last 4 meetings · TNST 6-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 7, 2025-26	WIU 56 @ TNST 83	TNST -15.5	TNST W
Jan 8, 2025-26	TNST 90 @ WIU 68	WIU +6.5	TNST W
Feb 6, 2024-25	WIU 69 @ TNST 87	TNST -8.5	TNST W
Jan 11, 2024-25	TNST 72 @ WIU 52	WIU -2.5	TNST W
Mar 7, 2023-24	TNST 59 vs WIU 61	WIU -2.5	TNST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tennessee St

30 games played

Straight up

20-10

67% wins

Against the spread

18-12

60% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1067%

L L L W W L W W L W W W L W W L W W L W W W L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1260%

W L W W W L W W L W W W L L L L W W L L W L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1647%

O O U U U U U O O O O O U O U U O U O U U U O O U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@BEL	L 79-87	+13.5	W +5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 16	@WKU	L 82-95	+12.5	L −0.5	167.5	O 177
Nov 20	@TENN	L 60-89	+31.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 149
Nov 25	@UNCA	W 75-73	+5.5	W +7.5	164.5	U 148
Nov 30	@UTC	W 70-64	+8.5	W +14.5	155.5	U 134
Dec 3	@AAMU	L 53-80	-4.5	L −31.5	147.5	U 133
Dec 13	@UNLV	W 63-60	+12.5	W +15.5	161.5	U 123
Dec 18	vsUTM	W 78-71	-2.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 149
Dec 20	vsSEMO	L 82-91	+1.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 173
Dec 30	@TNTC	W 88-76	-1.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 164
Jan 3	@LR	W 84-79	-1.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 163
Jan 8	@WIU	W 90-68	-6.5	W +15.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 10	@EIU	L 70-74	-3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 15	vsMORE	W 105-100	-7.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 205
Jan 17	vsUSI	W 73-67	-8.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 140
Jan 22	@SIUE	L 66-74	+1.5	L −6.5	142.5	U 140
Jan 24	@LIN	W 96-86	+4.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 29	vsLR	W 70-63	-4.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 133
Feb 2	vsTNTC	L 85-90	-7.5	L −12.5	153.5	O 175
Feb 5	vsEIU	W 77-68	-9.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 145
Feb 7	vsWIU	W 83-56	-15.5	W +11.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 12	@USI	W 73-71	-6.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 14	@MORE	L 86-94	-1.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 180
Feb 19	vsLIN	W 89-80	-3.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 21	vsSIUE	W 80-53	-2.5	W +24.5	143.5	U 133
Feb 26	@SEMO	W 79-71	+2.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 150
Feb 28	@UTM	W 67-42	+2.5	W +27.5	143.5	U 109
Mar 6	vsUTM	W 68-55	-1.5	W +11.5	137.5	U 123
Mar 7	vsMORE	W 93-67	-5.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 160
Mar 20	vsISU	L 74-108	+24.5	L −9.5	147.5	O 182

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BEL

L 79-87

+5.5

WKU

L 82-95

−0.5

TENN

L 60-89

+2.5

UNCA

W 75-73

+7.5

UTC

W 70-64

+14.5

AAMU

L 53-80

−31.5

UNLV

W 63-60

+15.5

UTM

W 78-71

+4.5

SEMO

L 82-91

−7.5

TNTC

W 88-76

+10.5

W 84-79

+3.5

WIU

W 90-68

+15.5

EIU

L 70-74

−7.5

W 105-100

−2.5

USI

W 73-67

−2.5

SIUE

L 66-74

−6.5

LIN

W 96-86

+14.5

W 70-63

+2.5

TNTC

L 85-90

−12.5

EIU

W 77-68

−0.5

WIU

W 83-56

+11.5

USI

W 73-71

−4.5

L 86-94

−9.5

LIN

W 89-80

+5.5

SIUE

W 80-53

+24.5

SEMO

W 79-71

+10.5

UTM

W 67-42

+27.5

UTM

W 68-55

+11.5

W 93-67

+20.5

ISU

L 74-108

−9.5

covered 18didn’t cover 12avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BEL

L 79-87

+7.5

WKU

L 82-95

+9.5

TENN

L 60-89

−8.5

UNCA

W 75-73

−16.5

UTC

W 70-64

−21.5

AAMU

L 53-80

−14.5

UNLV

W 63-60

−38.5

UTM

W 78-71

+7.5

SEMO

L 82-91

+21.5

TNTC

W 88-76

+8.5

W 84-79

+18.5

WIU

W 90-68

+12.5

EIU

L 70-74

−0.5

W 105-100

+56.5

USI

W 73-67

−10.5

SIUE

L 66-74

−2.5

LIN

W 96-86

+21.5

W 70-63

−17.5

TNTC

L 85-90

+21.5

EIU

W 77-68

−0.5

WIU

W 83-56

−12.5

USI

W 73-71

−3.5

L 86-94

+31.5

LIN

W 89-80

+9.5

SIUE

W 80-53

−10.5

SEMO

W 79-71

−1.5

UTM

W 67-42

−34.5

UTM

W 68-55

−14.5

W 93-67

+16.5

ISU

L 74-108

+34.5

over 14under 16avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

W Illinois

28 games played

Straight up

2-26

7% wins

Against the spread

11-17

39% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-15

46% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-267%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1739%

W W L W L L L W L W W L L L W W W L W L L L W L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1546%

O U U U O O O U O U U U O U U O U O O U O U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@RAD	L 75-80	+16.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 7	@IOWA	L 58-77	+30.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 135
Nov 11	@CSUB	L 58-74	+7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@CBU	L 59-69	+15.5	W +5.5	140.5	U 128
Nov 21	vsCCU	L 64-84	+3.5	L −16.5	138.5	O 148
Nov 23	vsUND	L 69-78	+2.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 2	@DRKE	L 57-108	+17.5	L −33.5	138.5	O 165
Dec 13	@UND	W 69-66	+7.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 18	@LIN	L 76-92	+12.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 168
Dec 22	vsSIUE	L 61-66	+6.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 127
Jan 1	@UTM	L 60-67	+13.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 127
Jan 3	@SEMO	L 50-73	+13.5	L −9.5	147.5	U 123
Jan 8	vsTNST	L 68-90	+6.5	L −15.5	145.5	O 158
Jan 10	vsTNTC	L 54-59	+3.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 113
Jan 13	@EIU	L 55-57	+6.5	W +4.5	132.5	U 112
Jan 17	@LR	L 79-86	+10.5	W +3.5	135.5	O 165
Jan 22	@MORE	L 66-71	+8.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Jan 23	@USI	L 64-96	+6.5	L −25.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsSEMO	L 74-78	+10.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 31	vsUTM	L 44-84	+10.5	L −29.5	137.5	U 128
Feb 5	@TNTC	L 72-97	+9.5	L −15.5	143.5	O 169
Feb 7	@TNST	L 56-83	+15.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 139
Feb 10	vsEIU	W 79-70	+4.5	W +13.5	133.5	O 149
Feb 12	vsLR	L 58-77	+7.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 19	vsUSI	L 70-77	+3.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	vsMORE	L 59-81	+8.5	L −13.5	143.5	U 140
Feb 26	@SIUE	L 47-67	+13.5	L −6.5	135.5	U 114
Feb 28	vsLIN	L 69-91	+11.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+11.5

IOWA

L 58-77

+11.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−8.5

CBU

L 59-69

+5.5

CCU

L 64-84

−16.5

UND

L 69-78

−6.5

DRKE

L 57-108

−33.5

UND

W 69-66

+10.5

LIN

L 76-92

−3.5

SIUE

L 61-66

+1.5

UTM

L 60-67

+6.5

SEMO

L 50-73

−9.5

TNST

L 68-90

−15.5

TNTC

L 54-59

−1.5

EIU

L 55-57

+4.5

L 79-86

+3.5

L 66-71

+3.5

USI

L 64-96

−25.5

SEMO

L 74-78

+6.5

UTM

L 44-84

−29.5

TNTC

L 72-97

−15.5

TNST

L 56-83

−11.5

EIU

W 79-70

+13.5

L 58-77

−11.5

USI

L 70-77

−3.5

L 59-81

−13.5

SIUE

L 47-67

−6.5

LIN

L 69-91

−10.5

covered 11didn’t cover 17avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RAD

L 75-80

+3.5

IOWA

L 58-77

−10.5

CSUB

L 58-74

−9.5

CBU

L 59-69

−12.5

CCU

L 64-84

+9.5

UND

L 69-78

+0.5

DRKE

L 57-108

+26.5

UND

W 69-66

−10.5

LIN

L 76-92

+21.5

SIUE

L 61-66

−11.5

UTM

L 60-67

−13.5

SEMO

L 50-73

−24.5

TNST

L 68-90

+12.5

TNTC

L 54-59

−30.5

EIU

L 55-57

−20.5

L 79-86

+29.5

L 66-71

−1.5

USI

L 64-96

+23.5

SEMO

L 74-78

+9.5

UTM

L 44-84

−9.5

TNTC

L 72-97

+25.5

TNST

L 56-83

−12.5

EIU

W 79-70

+15.5

L 58-77

−6.5

USI

L 70-77

+6.5

L 59-81

−3.5

SIUE

L 47-67

−21.5

LIN

L 69-91

+10.5

over 13under 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tennessee St has the better starters

Position by position: Tennessee St 2, W Illinois 0, even 3

Tennessee StBetterW Illinois

G T. Johnson TR15 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 85

TNSTBig

G M. Kvamme5 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 9

G A. Morris TR11.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 30

TNSTSmall

F D. Stephens5.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

G C. Alston TR4.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Score 42

No call

F J. Riley NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F A. Bradshaw TR8.6 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 79

No call

F I. Davis NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F J. Rivera TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47

No call

F D. Traylor NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

Tennessee StBetterW Illinois

TNST offense207th of 366 · -6.3

TNSTBig

WIU defense362nd of 366 · -11.6

TNST defense290th of 366 · -7.3

TNSTSmall

WIU offense365th of 366 · -15.6

Backcourt-0.4 · 3 players

TNSTSmall

Backcourt-3.1 · 1 player

Frontcourt+1.0 · 2 players

TNSTSmall

Frontcourt-1.7 · 4 players

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestTNST betterWIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Tennessee St

Guards

T. Johnson29 min · TRA. Morris28 min · TRC. Alston11 min · TRD. Howard8 minI. Stewart4 min · TRJ. Jones3 min

Forwards

A. Bradshaw19 min · TRJ. Rivera12 min · TRK. Jones11 minD. LindseyNew

W Illinois

Guards

M. Kvamme26 minD. FlowersNewH. VaughnNewA. KonateNewJ. CainNewT. MooreNew

Forwards

D. Stephens17 minJ. RileyNewI. DavisNewD. TraylorNewM. BiembongoNewS. HigginsNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TNST77.9 #96

WIU63.2 #357

Points per possession

TNST1.10 #146

WIU0.94 #359

Pace (possessions)

TNST71.1 #66

WIU67.6 #246

Shooting

Effective FG%

TNST50.0 #237

WIU44.5 #361

3-point %

TNST33.3 #211

WIU30.9 #322

3-point attempt rate

TNST30.7 #344

WIU33.3 #311

Free throw rate

TNST33.4 #228

WIU37.7 #108

Possessions

Turnover rate

TNST16.7 #177

WIU17.5 #239

Offensive rebound rate

TNST34.8 #53

WIU27.0 #293

Assists per game

TNST12.7 #237

WIU8.1 #365

Defense

Points allowed

TNST75.1 #191

WIU78.5 #281

Points allowed per possession

TNST1.06 #97

WIU1.16 #334

Opponent effective FG%

TNST51.6 #190

WIU54.2 #303

Opponent 3-point %

TNST34.0 #183

WIU35.6 #288

Turnovers forced

TNST19.8 #26

WIU14.9 #300

Defensive rebound rate

TNST69.4 #184

WIU65.2 #334

Steals per game

TNST9.0 #10

WIU5.1 #331

Blocks per game

TNST3.8 #99

WIU2.0 #346

TNST		WIU
Scoring
77.9 #96	Points per game	63.2 #357
1.10 #146	Points per possession	0.94 #359
71.1 #66	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #246
Shooting
50.0 #237	Effective FG%	44.5 #361
33.3 #211	3-point %	30.9 #322
30.7 #344	3-point attempt rate	33.3 #311
33.4 #228	Free throw rate	37.7 #108
Possessions
16.7 #177	Turnover rate	17.5 #239
34.8 #53	Offensive rebound rate	27.0 #293
12.7 #237	Assists per game	8.1 #365
Defense
75.1 #191	Points allowed	78.5 #281
1.06 #97	Points allowed per possession	1.16 #334
51.6 #190	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #303
34.0 #183	Opponent 3-point %	35.6 #288
19.8 #26	Turnovers forced	14.9 #300
69.4 #184	Defensive rebound rate	65.2 #334
9.0 #10	Steals per game	5.1 #331
3.8 #99	Blocks per game	2.0 #346

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tennessee St

20-10 in 2025-26 overall · 17-5 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa State74–108
Wvs Morehead St93–67
Wvs UT Martin68–55
W@ UT Martin67–42
W@ SE Missouri79–71

A week or more of rest.

W Illinois

2-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-19 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Lindenwood Lions69–91
L@ SIUE47–67
Lvs Morehead St59–81
Lvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles70–77
Lvs Little Rock58–77

A week or more of rest.

Tennessee State Tigers at Western Illinois Leathernecks

What could decide it: TNST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Tennessee St

W Illinois

Tennessee St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Tennessee St

W Illinois