1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Dec 11
  3. NCCU @ DRKE
NCAAB · Fri, Dec 11

North Carolina Central Eagles at Drake Bulldogs

Knapp Center · at Drake
#357NCCUNC Central
@
#144DRKEDrake
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NCCUThis seasonDRKE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DRKE 83–63 · win probability DRKE 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DRKE has more of the edges

NCCU 0, DRKE 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
DRKEBig
NCCU offense vs DRKE defense
Offense 345th of 366 against a defense 132nd, on the model’s ratings
DRKEBig
DRKE offense vs NCCU defense
Offense 168th of 366 against a defense 352nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NCCU has played the 310th-hardest schedule, DRKE the 147th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DRKEBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NCCU 47.5 and allows 54.5; DRKE 51.4 and allows 52.6
DRKESmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NCCU 4%, DRKE 51%. Transfers in: NCCU 4, DRKE 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
DRKESmall
Home court
DRKE at home. This season: DRKE 0-0 at home, NCCU 0-0 away
DRKESmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NCCU 30.0%, DRKE 26.6%. Defensive: NCCU 60.6%, DRKE 70.1%
Even
Three-pointers
NCCU hits 32.6% and allows 36.4%; DRKE hits 34.0% and allows 36.4%. Threes are 33.9% and 45.7% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: NCCU plays 66.9 a game (282nd fastest), DRKE 68.4 (209th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NCCU 18.2%, DRKE 15.0%. Forced: NCCU 19.8%, DRKE 14.6%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NCCU 39.3, DRKE 33.5. Allowed: NCCU 36.9, DRKE 32.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DRKE -20.2—
Total—146.2—
Projected score—NCCU 63 · DRKE 83.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDRKE -11.9—
1H total68.4—
1H projected scoreNCCU 28.2 · DRKE 40.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Drake has the better starters

Position by position: NC Central 0, Drake 2, even 3
NC CentralBetterDrake
G T. Brown TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
DRKESmall
G A. Alia6.8 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
G R. Archey3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G O. Larson10 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 42
F C. Meeks TR5.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 6
DRKEBig
G E. Shetlar9 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57
F T. Mason TR5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32
Even
F G. Oldham TR5.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1 ast Score 21
F M. Vassel TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Carroll TR10.7 pts · 8.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
NC CentralBetterDrake
NCCU offense345th of 366 · -11.9
DRKEBig
DRKE defense132nd of 366 · -2.5
NCCU defense352nd of 366 · -9.9
DRKEBig
DRKE offense168th of 366 · -5.1
Backcourt-2.4 · 2 players
NCCUSmall
Backcourt-3.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-5.2 · 3 players
DRKEBig
Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.1 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestNCCU betterDRKE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
NC Central
Guards
T. Brown14 min · TRR. Archey8 minD. KaneNewC. SanonNewI. BuckleyNewA. BowserNew
Forwards
C. Meeks29 min · TRT. Mason12 min · TRM. Vassel8 min · TRJ. PriceNewD. DuorNew
Centers
D. MbaetekaNew
Drake
Guards
A. Alia32 minO. Larson29 minE. Shetlar28 minD. Kindell17 min · TRD. IjadimbolaNewL. RushNew
Forwards
G. Oldham26 min · TRJ. Carroll25 min · TRG. Goodbary13 minJ. BurnsNewM. FlemonsNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NCCUDRKE
Scoring
67.6 #322Points per game73.9 #200
1.02 #308Points per possession1.08 #182
66.9 #282Pace (possessions)68.4 #209
Shooting
47.5 #328Effective FG%51.4 #179
32.6 #2473-point %34.0 #172
33.9 #2993-point attempt rate45.7 #53
39.3 #72Free throw rate33.5 #223
Possessions
18.2 #285Turnover rate15.0 #64
30.0 #201Offensive rebound rate26.6 #310
12.1 #279Assists per game13.1 #202
Defense
77.3 #246Points allowed76.3 #225
1.15 #322Points allowed per possession1.12 #261
54.5 #317Opponent effective FG%52.6 #246
36.4 #321Opponent 3-point %36.4 #323
19.8 #27Turnovers forced14.6 #315
60.6 #364Defensive rebound rate70.1 #155
7.7 #60Steals per game5.2 #319
3.4 #165Blocks per game2.9 #241
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC Central

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard63–70
  • Wvs Delaware St59–53
  • Wvs MD Eastern83–76
  • Lvs SC State64–80
  • W@ MD Eastern77–73

A week or more of rest.

Drake

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UIC51–72
  • Wvs Belmont100–79
  • Wvs S Illinois67–63
  • Lvs Northern Iowa53–75
  • L@ Valparaiso71–74

A week or more of rest.