1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Dec 11
  3. UNCG @ NCSU
NCAAB · Fri, Dec 11

UNC Greensboro Spartans at NC State Wolfpack

Reynolds Coliseum · at NC State
#284UNCGUNC Greensboro
@
#48NCSUNC State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNCGThis seasonNCSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NCSU 91–64 · win probability NCSU 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
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no line yet
Total
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model 155.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
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No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NCSU has more of the edges

UNCG 1, NCSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NCSUBig
NCSU offense vs UNCG defense
Offense 42nd of 366 against a defense 299th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UNCG has played the 256th-hardest schedule, NCSU the 51st. A record against a soft schedule means less
NCSUBig
UNCG offense vs NCSU defense
Offense 260th of 366 against a defense 58th, on the model’s ratings
NCSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNCG 15.0%, NCSU 13.1%. Forced: UNCG 13.6%, NCSU 18.2%
UNCGBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNCG 42.0, NCSU 35.1. Allowed: UNCG 30.6, NCSU 36.9
NCSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNCG 52.0 and allows 56.2; NCSU 55.0 and allows 52.7
NCSUSmall
Three-pointers
UNCG hits 35.6% and allows 38.0%; NCSU hits 38.8% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 40.2% and 43.4% of their shots
NCSUSmall
Home court
NCSU at home. This season: NCSU 0-0 at home, UNCG 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNCG 5%, NCSU 28%. Transfers in: UNCG 6, NCSU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNCG 28.1%, NCSU 28.2%. Defensive: UNCG 71.0%, NCSU 69.5%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UNCG plays 69.3 a game (157th fastest), NCSU 70.2 (103rd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NCSU -26.3—
Total—155.1—
Projected score—UNCG 64.4 · NCSU 90.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNCSU -15.5—
1H total72.5—
1H projected scoreUNCG 28.5 · NCSU 44—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

NC State has the better starters

Position by position: UNC Greensboro 0, NC State 3, even 2
UNC GreensboroBetterNC State
G B. Stacker TR11.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 47
NCSUBig
G P. Edmead TR16.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.3 ast Score 83
G C. Grant TR2.2 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 9
NCSUBig
G C. Hammond TR15.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87
F Z. Fitch TR6.1 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 31
NCSUBig
G P. McNeil13.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 90
F V. Collins TR1 pts · 3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F K. Evans TR11.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 95
F A. Beljan TR2.2 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F E. Yalaho TR10.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
UNC GreensboroBetterNC State
UNCG offense260th of 366 · -8.0
NCSUBig
NCSU defense58th of 366 · +1.3
UNCG defense299th of 366 · -7.7
NCSUBig
NCSU offense42nd of 366 · +4.6
Backcourt-2.1 · 2 players
NCSUBig
Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.9 · 3 players
NCSUBig
Frontcourt+4.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.5 · 3 players
NCSUBig
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUNCG betterNCSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UNC Greensboro
Guards
B. Stacker29 min · TRC. Grant11 min · TRC. Bailey6 minR. Greer6 min · TRB. MishakNewJ. ManiNew
Forwards
Z. Fitch23 min · TRV. Collins7 min · TRA. Beljan7 min · TRC. Bynum4 minC. LaFrentzNew
NC State
Guards
P. Edmead35 min · TRC. Hammond30 min · TRP. McNeil29 minD. Adams26 min · TRR. Keene23 min · TRJ. Brim5 min · TR
Forwards
K. Evans30 min · TRE. Yalaho29 min · TRV. Lubin28 minC. Emuobor19 min · TRR. JurkovicNewS. HallNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNCGNCSU
Scoring
76.6 #128Points per game83.2 #25
1.11 #125Points per possession1.18 #30
69.3 #157Pace (possessions)70.2 #103
Shooting
52.0 #146Effective FG%55.0 #35
35.6 #803-point %38.8 #6
40.2 #1653-point attempt rate43.4 #104
42.0 #31Free throw rate35.1 #175
Possessions
15.0 #63Turnover rate13.1 #7
28.1 #259Offensive rebound rate28.2 #258
12.1 #283Assists per game15.4 #70
Defense
81.9 #341Points allowed76.3 #224
1.18 #347Points allowed per possession1.09 #186
56.2 #347Opponent effective FG%52.7 #256
38.0 #357Opponent 3-point %35.5 #281
13.6 #343Turnovers forced18.2 #90
71.0 #104Defensive rebound rate69.5 #181
5.5 #301Steals per game8.1 #37
1.9 #350Blocks per game3.4 #159
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UNC Greensboro

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman75–81
  • Wvs Wofford75–72
  • Wvs VMI84–70
  • L@ Samford78–87
  • W@ Chattanooga85–80

A week or more of rest.

NC State

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas66–68
  • Lvs Virginia74–81
  • Wvs Pitt98–88
  • Lvs Stanford84–85
  • Lvs Duke64–93

A week or more of rest.