UNC Asheville Bulldogs at NC State Wolfpack: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ETLenovo Center · at NC State

Final

#48NCSUNC State75▲ winner

Closing lineNCSU -28.5✓ UNCA covered by 16.5

Closing total155.5Under by 17.5

Season records: UNC Asheville and NC State
UNCA	This season	NCSU
3-4	Record	5-3
3-4	ATS	4-4
3-4	O/U	5-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNCA 70–91 NCSU · ✓ NCSU (97%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNCA	33	30	63
NCSU	35	40	75

1st half: UNCA 33, NCSU 35 (NCSU by 2). The model had NCSU by 13.0 and a total of 75.2 (actual 68).

Team stats

UNCA		NCSU
20-54 37%	Field goals	28-58 48%
10-24 42%	3-pointers	7-24 29%
13-17 76%	Free throws	12-15 80%
32 9 off	Rebounds	38 9 off
13	Assists	21
8	Steals	5
1	Blocks	4
14	Turnovers	12
16	Fouls	17
14	Points in paint	40
1	Fast-break points	10

Players

UNCA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Toyaz Solomon F	40	12	5	3	3-9	0-0
Justin Wright G	39	16	6	0	7-18	2-7
DJ Patrick G	35	15	6	3	5-11	5-10
Kam Taylor G	33	20	7	4	5-14	3-6
Myles Mayfield F	17	0	2	2	0-0	0-0
Bench
David Hermes F	23	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Corey Jones G	8	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Julian Clarke PG	5	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Jakel Powell, Connor Dubsky, Rasheed Baldwin, Mitchell Taylor, Daniel Thomas, Sage Tolentino, Hugo Maton, Brayden Rivers

NCSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Darrion Williams F	29	8	3	6	4-6	0-2
Tre Holloman G	29	8	1	3	3-8	2-3
Ven-Allen Lubin F	27	23	12	1	9-11	0-1
Quadir Copeland G	25	13	1	8	4-9	1-2
Scottie Ebube C	2	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Matt Able G	20	13	4	1	5-8	3-5
Alyn Breed G	20	2	3	2	0-1	0-1
Paul McNeil Jr. G	18	3	5	0	1-6	1-6
Musa Sagnia C	13	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Jerry Deng F	9	2	1	0	1-4	0-2
Terrance Arceneaux G	8	1	1	0	0-3	0-2

Did not play: Colt Langdon, Jordan Snell, Jayme Kontuniemi, Zymicah Wilkins

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NCSU -28.5	NCSU -21.9	UNCA +6.6	W UNCA covered
Total	155.5	160.8	Over 5.3	L Under
Projected score	—	UNCA 69.5 · NCSU 91.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NCSU -13.0	NCSU -2.0
1H total	75.2	68
1H projected score	UNCA 31.1 · NCSU 44.1	UNCA 33 · NCSU 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNCA LLLWW	3-4	43%	1-2	1-1
NCSU LLWLL	4-4	50%	3-1	4-3

Venue/role: UNCA away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCA UOUUO	3-4	43%	3-4
NCSU UOUOU	5-3	63%	5-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
NCSUlast 8	5-3 63%	4-4 50%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNC Asheville

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L L W L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WICH	L 58-75	+6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	@GASO	L 90-93	+5.5	W +2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsLIP	W 69-64	-6.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 19	@WCU	L 73-80	-1.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 153
Nov 25	vsTNST	L 73-75	-5.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 148
Nov 30	vsAPP	W 67-55	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 2	vsUNCG	W 82-77	-4.5	W +0.5	143.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WICH

L 58-75

−10.5

GASO

L 90-93

+2.5

LIP

W 69-64

−1.5

WCU

L 73-80

−8.5

TNST

L 73-75

−7.5

APP

W 67-55

+10.5

UNCG

W 82-77

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WICH

L 58-75

−24.5

GASO

L 90-93

+20.5

LIP

W 69-64

−25.5

WCU

L 73-80

+0.5

TNST

L 73-75

−16.5

APP

W 67-55

−15.5

UNCG

W 82-77

+15.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

NC State

8 games played

Straight up

5-3

63% wins

Against the spread

4-4

50% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-3

63% overs · avg +12.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-363%

W W W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-450%

W W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-363%

O O O U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNCCU	W 114-66	-31.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	vsUAB	W 94-70	-19.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 164
Nov 12	vsUNCG	W 110-64	-30.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 17	vsVCU	W 85-79	-11.5	L −5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 24	vsHALL	L 74-85	-7.5	L −18.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsBOIS	W 81-70	-6.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTEX	L 97-102	-1.5	L −6.5	161.5	O 199
Dec 3	@AUB	L 73-83	+5.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+16.5

UAB

W 94-70

+4.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+15.5

VCU

W 85-79

−5.5

HALL

L 74-85

−18.5

BOIS

W 81-70

+4.5

TEX

L 97-102

−6.5

AUB

L 73-83

−4.5

covered 4didn’t cover 4avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+34.5

UAB

W 94-70

+1.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+20.5

VCU

W 85-79

−0.5

HALL

L 74-85

+15.5

BOIS

W 81-70

−1.5

TEX

L 97-102

+37.5

AUB

L 73-83

−6.5

over 5under 3avg +12.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UNC Asheville Bulldogs at NC State Wolfpack

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UNC Asheville

NC State

UNC Asheville

NC State