Lipscomb Bisons at UNC Asheville Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 11, 6:30 PM ETKimmel Arena · at UNC Asheville

#214LIPLipscomb64final

Final

#271UNCAUNC Asheville69▲ winner

Closing lineUNCA -6.5✓ LIP covered by 1.5

Closing total158.5Under by 25.5

Season records: Lipscomb and UNC Asheville
LIP	This season	UNCA
0-2	Record	0-2
0-2	ATS	1-1
2-0	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LIP 77–81 UNCA · ✓ UNCA (63%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LIP	25	39	64
UNCA	29	40	69

1st half: LIP 25, UNCA 29 (UNCA by 4). The model had UNCA by 2.2 and a total of 73.7 (actual 54).

Team stats

LIP		UNCA
23-63 37%	Field goals	24-48 50%
7-31 23%	3-pointers	6-17 35%
11-15 73%	Free throws	15-24 63%
36 16 off	Rebounds	34 9 off
14	Assists	9
8	Steals	4
2	Blocks	2
10	Turnovers	15
22	Fouls	15
30	Points in paint	32
11	Fast-break points	13

Players

LIP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Grant Asman F	30	22	11	2	7-11	5-7
Mateo Esmeraldo G	29	12	3	6	5-15	0-6
Ethan Duncan G	23	2	3	2	1-7	0-4
Ross Candelino G	23	5	7	3	2-6	1-3
Charlie Williams C	19	4	2	0	0-2	0-2
Bench
Or Ashkenazi F	21	2	1	0	1-3	0-2
Titas Sargiunas F	20	8	3	0	4-7	0-3
Cole Middleton F	16	3	2	0	1-6	0-1
Kellan Boylan F	14	3	1	1	1-3	0-1
Kennedy Okpara F	5	3	1	0	1-3	1-2

Did not play: Devyn Martin, Luke Jack, Josh Scott, Luke Carter, Miles White, Logan Suber

UNCA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kam Taylor G	38	16	7	5	5-12	0-4
Myles Mayfield F	38	6	4	0	2-4	0-0
Justin Wright G	34	29	2	2	10-15	4-7
Toyaz Solomon F	31	6	6	2	3-9	0-1
Daniel Thomas F	19	6	9	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Jakel Powell G	17	3	1	0	1-4	1-4
Julian Clarke PG	17	3	1	0	1-1	1-1
Sage Tolentino F	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Brayden Rivers, Hugo Maton, David Hermes, Mitchell Taylor, Rasheed Baldwin, Corey Jones, Connor Dubsky, DJ Patrick

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNCA -6.5	UNCA -3.9	LIP +2.6	W LIP covered
Total	158.5	157.5	Under 1.0	W Under
Projected score	—	LIP 76.8 · UNCA 80.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNCA -2.2	UNCA -4.0
1H total	73.7	54
1H projected score	LIP 35.8 · UNCA 38	LIP 25 · UNCA 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIP LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-2
UNCA LW	1-1	50%	—	—

Venue/role: LIP away, as underdog; UNCA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIP OO	2-0	100%	0-2
UNCA UO	1-1	50%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIPlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	2-0 100%
UNCAlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LIP 1–0 UNCALIP leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LIP 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 24, 2023-24	LIP 86 vs UNCA 75	UNCA -3.5	LIP W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lipscomb

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −14.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +11.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@VAN	L 61-105	+26.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 166
Nov 9	@MER	L 77-92	+3.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

−17.5

MER

L 77-92

−11.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −14.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

+11.5

MER

L 77-92

+11.5

over 2under 0avg +11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UNC Asheville

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@WICH	L 58-75	+6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 133
Nov 8	@GASO	L 90-93	+5.5	W +2.5	162.5	O 183

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WICH

L 58-75

−10.5

GASO

L 90-93

+2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WICH

L 58-75

−24.5

GASO

L 90-93

+20.5

over 1under 1avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lipscomb Bisons at UNC Asheville Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Lipscomb

UNC Asheville

Lipscomb

UNC Asheville