1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. UNC vs NCSU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

North Carolina Tar Heels vs NC State Wolfpack

First Horizon Coliseum · Neutral site · Conference game
#44UNCNorth Carolina
vs
#48NCSUNC State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNCThis seasonNCSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNC 79–78 · win probability UNC 53%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 157.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNC has more of the edges

UNC 3, NCSU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNC 37.1, NCSU 35.1. Allowed: UNC 23.8, NCSU 36.9
NCSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNC 13.9%, NCSU 13.1%. Forced: UNC 13.6%, NCSU 18.2%
UNCBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNC 31.2%, NCSU 28.2%. Defensive: UNC 72.2%, NCSU 69.5%
UNCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNC 54.3 and allows 48.4; NCSU 55.0 and allows 52.7
NCSUSmall
Three-pointers
UNC hits 34.2% and allows 34.7%; NCSU hits 38.8% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 42.2% and 43.4% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UNC plays 69.0 a game (180th fastest), NCSU 70.2 (103rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
UNC offense vs NCSU defense
Offense 40th of 366 against a defense 58th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNC 20%, NCSU 28%. Transfers in: UNC 5, NCSU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
UNC has played the 61st-hardest schedule, NCSU the 51st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
NCSU offense vs UNC defense
Offense 42nd of 366 against a defense 52nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNC -0.7—
Total—157.5—
Projected score—UNC 79.1 · NCSU 78.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNC -0.6—
1H total73.6—
1H projected scoreUNC 37.1 · NCSU 36.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

NC State has the better starters

Position by position: North Carolina 1, NC State 3, even 1
North CarolinaBetterNC State
G N. Avdalas TR12.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.6 ast Score 67
NCSUSmall
G P. Edmead TR16.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.3 ast Score 83
G T. Brown TR19.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 98
Even
G C. Hammond TR15.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87
G A. Brizzi TR14.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
NCSUSmall
G P. McNeil13.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 90
F J. Stevenson8.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
NCSUSmall
F K. Evans TR11.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 95
C C. Fens TR14.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 85
UNCSmall
F E. Yalaho TR10.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
North CarolinaBetterNC State
UNC offense40th of 366 · +5.0
Even
NCSU defense58th of 366 · +1.3
UNC defense52nd of 366 · +1.9
Even
NCSU offense42nd of 366 · +4.6
Backcourt+6.0 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+4.6 · 2 players
Bench+0.4 · 5 players
NCSUSmall
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUNC betterNCSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Carolina
Guards
N. Avdalas32 min · TRT. Brown32 min · TRA. Brizzi30 min · TRM. Able22 min · TRJ. Young7 minI. Denis3 min
Forwards
J. Stevenson26 minJ. Holbrook2 minA. SamodurovNewM. AdamsNew
Centers
C. Fens26 min · TRC. BennermanNewS. KeitaNew
NC State
Guards
P. Edmead35 min · TRC. Hammond30 min · TRP. McNeil29 minD. Adams26 min · TRR. Keene23 min · TRJ. Brim5 min · TR
Forwards
K. Evans30 min · TRE. Yalaho29 min · TRV. Lubin28 minC. Emuobor19 min · TRR. JurkovicNewS. HallNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNCNCSU
Scoring
79.7 #73Points per game83.2 #25
1.16 #50Points per possession1.18 #30
69.0 #180Pace (possessions)70.2 #103
Shooting
54.3 #57Effective FG%55.0 #35
34.2 #1593-point %38.8 #6
42.2 #1323-point attempt rate43.4 #104
37.1 #127Free throw rate35.1 #175
Possessions
13.9 #20Turnover rate13.1 #7
31.2 #159Offensive rebound rate28.2 #258
16.0 #47Assists per game15.4 #70
Defense
71.6 #97Points allowed76.3 #224
1.04 #65Points allowed per possession1.09 #186
48.4 #44Opponent effective FG%52.7 #256
34.7 #234Opponent 3-point %35.5 #281
13.6 #344Turnovers forced18.2 #90
72.2 #59Defensive rebound rate69.5 #181
5.4 #308Steals per game8.1 #37
3.4 #167Blocks per game3.4 #159
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Carolina

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs VCU78–82
  • Lvs Clemson79–80
  • L@ Duke61–76
  • Wvs Clemson67–63
  • Wvs Virginia Tech89–82

A week or more of rest.

NC State

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas66–68
  • Lvs Virginia74–81
  • Wvs Pitt98–88
  • Lvs Stanford84–85
  • Lvs Duke64–93

A week or more of rest.